Will Australia have fuel shortages in 2026?

As of October 12, 2026 Australia has no national fuel shortage and no rationing; petrol and diesel are available at the pump. It is a price story: ACCC five-city petrol was 236.0 c/L and diesel 283.3 c/L in the week to September 30, down 1.1 and 3.5 c/L as international diesel benchmarks eased about 4%. Local site outages occur on regional routes and clear within days.

When is the Geelong refinery restarting?

Viva Energy's Geelong Refinery — Australia's largest of two operating refineries — confirmed on June 23, 2026 that its Residue Catalytic Cracking Unit (RCCU) is back online at >90% of total refinery capacity. The RCCU had been offline since the April 15 fire at the connected Alkylation unit; while offline Geelong was running at approximately 60% capacity for petrol. The Alkylation unit remains offline as of July 1, with repair or replacement options being assessed; Geelong is expected to operate at slightly reduced capacity into 2027. The Geelong restart is confirmed fact, not a forecast risk. The remaining variable is the alkylation unit timeline, which affects premium unleaded production but not the volume forecast underpinning this page.

Will the Australian fuel excise cut be extended past June 30?

No. The relief was stepped down on July 1 and the remaining 16 c/L expired on August 2 with no extension; from August 3 excise returned to 53.7 c/L including a CPI adjustment. Excise is no longer the swing factor for pump prices; the offshore diesel market is.

What is the Minimum Stockholding Obligation (MSO)?

The Minimum Stockholding Obligation is a federal regulation, in force since 2022, requiring fuel suppliers to hold reserve stocks of petrol, diesel and jet fuel in addition to fuel already sold or contracted to customers. The MSO is calibrated to roughly 21 days of forward consumption cover (the precise structure varies by fuel type) and is reported weekly to the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. The MSO is Australia's functional equivalent of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve or European national strategic reserves: a regulatory floor rather than an emergency buffer, but with the same supply-security purpose. As of June 3, 2026, petrol stocks under the MSO are at their highest level since the regime began, and diesel stocks are close to their highest — partly because the conflict triggered industry to maintain higher-than-required levels as a precaution, and partly because the four consecutive improving official prints reflect the demand response to elevated April prices not yet fully reversing.

Is petrol rationed in Australia right now?

No. As of September 24, 2026 there is no government-imposed petrol or diesel rationing in Australia: no volume caps, no station allocation and no decree restricting sales. Prices are high and rising, but supply is flowing.

Shortages Australia 2026 Forecast

Australia Petrol & Diesel — 2026 Two-Scenario Forecast

Q: Why is Australia so dependent on imported fuel?

Australia imports approximately 90% of its refined liquid fuels (petrol, diesel, jet) as a structural feature of its energy market, not as a recent change. The country has only two operating refineries — Viva Energy's Geelong (Victoria) and Ampol's Lytton (Queensland) — which together account for less than 20% of national demand. The ExxonMobil Altona refinery closed in 2021; BP Kwinana closed in 2021. Most refined product is imported from Singapore, South Korea, and Japan, whose refineries are themselves significantly supplied by Middle Eastern crude — meaning Australia is exposed to the Strait of Hormuz via a one-step indirection (Gulf cargoes → Asian refineries → Australian ports) even though Australian refineries themselves do not typically use Middle Eastern crude directly. The Minimum Stockholding Obligation, introduced in 2022 partly in response to this structural import dependence, requires industry to hold reserve stocks equivalent to roughly 21 consumption days.

Retail petrol and diesel for the five largest Australian cities, observed February to 7 October and two scenarios to year-end. Updated 12 October from ACCC-confirmed prints: petrol 239.0 c/L and diesel 281.0 c/L in the week to 7 October, up 3.0 and down 2.3 c/L in a week. The excise question is settled; the swing factor now is the offshore diesel market and the Strait of Hormuz.

Forecast Rebuilt October 12, 2026

AU live status Disruption map Airlines Travel guidance Timeline 2026 Forecast

Update, 12 October 2026

Petrol up, diesel down, and the scenarios hold. The ACCC’s 31st report (9 October) puts five-city petrol at 239.0 c/L (+3.0) and diesel at 281.0 c/L (−2.3) in the week to 7 October. City range: petrol from 234.7 (Adelaide) to 244.4 (Perth), diesel from 272.7 (Perth) to 285.1 (Adelaide). The ACCC reports international petrol (Mogas 95) up about 5% to roughly 136 c/L and international diesel (Gasoil 10 ppm) down about 2% to roughly 154 c/L, and says refiner margins remain elevated for diesel. The strikes on tankers in and near Hormuz on 6–11 October and on Riyadh on 10–11 October are mostly not yet in this data window. GEF leaves both year-end paths unchanged (~250 / ~305 c/L for A, ~205 / ~240 c/L for B).

Update, 25 September 2026

Scenario A was breached within a week, and GEF revised it on 25 September; the 5 October review holds it. The ACCC’s 30th report (2 October) puts five-city petrol at 236.0 c/L and diesel at 283.3 c/L in the week to 30 September, down 1.1 and 3.5 c/L after the 29th report’s 237.1 and 286.8. The pause is consistent with a 4% fall in international diesel benchmarks, but it is one print; the 1–4 October tanker attacks in Hormuz are not yet in the data. Background to the 25 September revision: Yesterday’s version of this page set the ‘squeeze persists’ year-end at about 285 c/L for diesel and called it a drift rather than a spike, on the evidence that the Singapore gasoil benchmark had eased. Diesel went through that level in the next print. The benchmark move had not yet reached the pump, and the week added new pressure: Houthi missiles aimed at Yanbu on 24 September and Brent settling at $106.60, its highest close since mid-September. The revised paths are ~250 / ~305 c/L (A) and ~205 / ~240 c/L (B).

Update, 24 September 2026

The September easing reversed. After the ACCC’s early-September report found prices slightly lower, the next two prints moved sharply the other way: five-city petrol 209.9 c/L on 9 September and 224.2 c/L on 16 September, diesel 253.7 and 267.9 c/L. The ACCC attributes the rise to higher international refined-fuel benchmarks as conflict in the Middle East escalated. The AIP national average for the week to 20 September confirms the level independently at 227.3 c/L petrol and 273.6 c/L diesel, up from 211.1 and 257.7 a week earlier. The NRMA expects Sydney unleaded in the low-to-mid 240s this week.

Why the chart was rebuilt rather than extended. The previous line ran flat at about 207 c/L from early September on the assumption that no fresher five-city print existed; the ACCC’s 18 September report shows it was already 17 c/L higher. The old chart also used a pre-conflict baseline of about 177 and a peak of about 263 from a different government series. The rebuilt chart plots only ACCC-confirmed five-city prints (170.9 baseline, 257.2 peak) and adds diesel, which is the fuel this crisis is actually about.

What moves the two scenarios. Australia imports the consequence rather than the barrel: two refineries cover under 20% of demand, and most product comes from North Asian refiners buying Gulf crude. Two offsetting signals. Easing: the ACCC reports international diesel benchmarks about 4% lower in the week to 30 September, Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline is back (about 3.5m b/d on 28 September) and the G7 agreed on 2 October to release 100 million barrels, front-loaded in diesel. Pressure: Iran’s reopening proposals have been rejected, at least four tankers were struck in Hormuz between 1 and 4 October, and Brent settled $102.25 on 2 October. Scenario A remains a drift rather than a spike unless the attacks tighten Asian diesel supply.

Australian petrol and diesel in 2026: observed to 7 October, and two paths to year-end

Y-axis is retail price for the five largest Australian cities (AUD cents per litre — Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth), from the ACCC’s weekly fuel price monitoring. Blue is petrol, amber is diesel. Dots are confirmed ACCC prints; dotted segments bridge weeks not re-plotted. Dashed lines are two scenarios to 31 December, not predictions. Rebuilt 24 September after the ACCC’s 18 September report showed prices well above the flat ~207 c/L line the previous chart carried, and again on 25 September with the 29th report, which took diesel past the previous Scenario A year-end, and extended on 12 October with the 31st report.

Latest (ACCC 31st report, data to Oct 7)

239.0 / 281.0 c/L

Five-largest-cities petrol / diesel: petrol up 3.0 and diesel down 2.3 c/L in a week. Petrol is 68.1 c/L and diesel 104.4 c/L above the 20 Feb pre-conflict level, and 18.2 and 41.4 c/L below the 31 March peak.

Scenario A — squeeze persists (revised up)

~250 / ~305 c/L

Hormuz stays CRITICAL, the Red Sea bypass stays under attack and the regional diesel crack stays wide into the northern winter. Revised on 25 September after diesel passed the previous ~285 year-end level within a week. Still below the March peak because excise and crude are not at March conditions.

Scenario B — verified reopening in Q4

~205 / ~240 c/L

Transit counts recover for several consecutive weeks and benchmarks ease. With less time left in the year and a higher starting point, the year-end level is higher than the previous ~195 / ~225. Diesel stays well above its pre-conflict 176.6 because distillate is tight into 2027.

Geelong refinery status

RCCU RESTARTED Jun 23
>90% capacity confirmed

Viva Energy confirmed Jun 23: RCCU back online at >90% of normal capacity. Alkylation unit remains offline — repair or replacement options being assessed; Geelong operating at slightly reduced capacity into 2027. Australia's largest of two refineries; together cover <20% of national demand.

MSO stock status

Petrol: highest since MSO began
Diesel: close to highest

Per PM&C Fuel Supply Taskforce (data to mid-June): stocks of diesel and petrol above average, fuel "arriving in the quantities, and at the frequency, we need and expect". Emergency shipments secured in early June, incl. 50 ML diesel bound for Kwinana (WA).

Excise

53.7 c/L since Aug 3
relief fully expired, no extension

The Aug 2 decision this page tracked for months resolved in the harder direction; excise is no longer the swing factor. Offshore product prices are.

Retail petrol — ACCC five largest cities

Retail diesel — ACCC five largest cities

Scenario A: distillate squeeze persists

Scenario B: verified Hormuz reopening

Forecast model · GEF supply-chain analysis · observed retail prices from ACCC Weekly Fuel Price Monitoring (5 largest cities); stocks from PM&C Fuel Supply Taskforce + DCCEEW MSO weekly reporting · scenarios are illustrative, not guarantees · refreshed after each official print (ACCC Fridays) and on policy events global-energy-flow.com · October 12, 2026

Current state, 12 October 2026. Petrol rose and diesel eased in the latest print. ACCC five-city petrol 239.0 c/L and diesel 281.0 c/L (data to 7 October), 68.1 and 104.4 c/L above the 20 February pre-conflict level and 18.2 and 41.4 c/L below the 31 March peak. There is no rationing and GEF has found no national supply shortfall; this remains a price story.

Reading the chart. Blue is petrol and amber is diesel, both the ACCC’s five-largest-cities weekly average. Every dot is a confirmed ACCC print; where weekly prints between two dots have not been re-plotted, the segment is dotted rather than drawn as if continuous. The shape: a run-up to the 31 March peak after the Hormuz closure and the Geelong fire, a long decline helped by the April excise cut, a floor in late June, then a climb through July, the 3 August excise restoration, and a second leg up in September. Diesel sits far above petrol throughout because Middle East crude and Asian refining are distillate-heavy. The two dashed paths to year-end are scenarios, not predictions.

Scenario AThe distillate squeeze persists through year-end: petrol ~250 c/L, diesel ~305 c/L (revised 25 September from ~235 / ~285). Hormuz stays CRITICAL, Gulf crude keeps moving to Asia at a fraction of pre-war volume, and the regional diesel crack stays wide while US distillate stocks sit below their five-year low. With excise fixed at 53.7 c/L, pump prices track offshore product benchmarks with a lag of a week or two. The earlier version of this path assumed the easing gasoil benchmark would cap the rise; the 23 September print showed the lag runs longer than that. GEF would move further toward this path if Yanbu or Bab el-Mandeb traffic is disrupted, or on another week of rising ACCC prints.

Scenario BA verified reopening in the fourth quarter: petrol ~205 c/L, diesel ~240 c/L (revised 25 September from ~195 / ~225). Transit counts through Hormuz recover for several consecutive weeks, war-risk insurance eases and benchmarks fall. Petrol retreats toward, but not to, its 170.9 c/L pre-conflict level. Diesel stays roughly 50 c/L above its pre-conflict 176.6 because refinery damage in Russia and depleted inventories keep distillate tight into 2027. A phased US–Iran reopening deal was reported under discussion through Qatar on 24 September; GEF has logged four false dawns on Hormuz already, so this path requires transit counts, not announcements.

The excise (resolved)The 2026 excise relief is over. Excise was halved on 1 April, stepped back up by 16 c/L on 1 July, and returned in full to 53.7 c/L (including a 1.1 c/L CPI adjustment) on 3 August after the government declined to extend the remaining relief. It is no longer a scenario variable; the earlier excise scenarios on this page are retired.

Geelong & the MSOAustralia's import-dependence story, and the buffers that exist against it. Australia imports approximately 90% of its refined liquid fuels (petrol, diesel, jet) as a structural feature of its energy market — only Geelong (Viva Energy, Victoria) and Lytton (Ampol, Queensland) remain operating, and together they cover under 20% of national demand. Most refined product arrives from Singapore, South Korea and Japan, whose refineries are themselves significantly supplied by Middle Eastern crude — so the Strait of Hormuz reaches Australia by one-step indirection. Geelong RCCU RESTARTED Jun 23: Viva Energy confirmed the Residue Catalytic Cracking Unit is back online at >90% of normal capacity. The Alkylation unit remains offline and "repair or replacement options are being assessed" — Geelong expected to operate at slightly reduced capacity into 2027. The Minimum Stockholding Obligation (in force since 2022) requires industry to hold roughly 21 days of forward consumption cover. As of the latest PM&C taskforce update (mid-June), stocks of diesel and petrol are above average — with petrol stocks at the highest level since the MSO began. None of this prevented the Jul 1 excise step-up from landing — buffers protect against physical shortages, not tax changes — but they do explain why the GEF Australia pin remains on watch rather than escalating to confirmed shortage.

MethodThis is a scenario forecast, not a prediction. Observed values are the ACCC Weekly Fuel Price Monitoring five-largest-cities averages; only confirmed prints are plotted, and gaps between plotted prints are shown dotted. The AIP national average is used as an independent cross-check, not plotted, because it is a wider basket. Scenario end-points are GEF judgements anchored to the pre-conflict level, the current excise, and the offshore diesel market; they will be revisited after each ACCC report and on any verified change at Hormuz.

Related forecasts: the US gas-price + SPR forecast tracks AAA pump price alongside the Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdown (the US equivalent of Australia's MSO); the UK jet-fuel forecast tracks British aviation against the IEA 23-day threshold; the EU petrol & diesel availability forecast covers continental Europe with a different metric (% of normal road-fuel supply). See also the Strait of Hormuz status page and the live global shortage tracker.