Will Australia have fuel shortages in 2026?

As of July 17, 2026, Australia is not experiencing physical fuel shortages — petrol and diesel remain available at the pump. Petrol in the five largest cities is estimated around ~163 c/L, reconciled this week to ACCC's own confirmed prints (157.1 c/L Jun 24, 151.5 c/L Jun 30, 158.1 c/L Jul 1) rather than an earlier unreconciled estimate. Diesel was confirmed at 179.1 c/L Jul 1, estimated ~186 c/L today. The Geelong RCCU restart (Jun 23, >90% capacity, alkylation unit offline into 2027) remains a genuine tailwind. The forecast question is the Aug 2 decision on the remaining 16 c/L excise relief: whether it extends again (Scenario 1, year-end ~$1.78/L) or expires unrenewed (Scenario 2, a mechanical jump then continued rise to ~$1.98/L by December).

When is the Geelong refinery restarting?

Viva Energy's Geelong Refinery — Australia's largest of two operating refineries — confirmed on June 23, 2026 that its Residue Catalytic Cracking Unit (RCCU) is back online at >90% of total refinery capacity. The RCCU had been offline since the April 15 fire at the connected Alkylation unit; while offline Geelong was running at approximately 60% capacity for petrol. The Alkylation unit remains offline as of July 1, with repair or replacement options being assessed; Geelong is expected to operate at slightly reduced capacity into 2027. The Geelong restart is confirmed fact, not a forecast risk. The remaining variable is the alkylation unit timeline, which affects premium unleaded production but not the volume forecast underpinning this page.

Will the Australian fuel excise cut be extended past June 30?

RESOLVED as of June 23, 2026. The Australian Government confirmed a partial extension: 16 c/L of the 32 c/L excise relief will remain in force until August 2, 2026. This means: on July 1 there IS a ~16 c/L step-up in retail prices (from the full excise cut to a half excise cut) — real but half the feared impact. The remaining 16 c/L must be decided again on August 2: extend it further (Scenario 1 on this page) or let it expire in full (Scenario 2, another +16 c/L mechanical jump). The Jun 30 binary outcome has been replaced by an Aug 2 binary outcome. GEF's two scenarios now both show the Jul 1 partial cliff as given, and diverge on the Aug 2 decision.

What is the Minimum Stockholding Obligation (MSO)?

The Minimum Stockholding Obligation is a federal regulation, in force since 2022, requiring fuel suppliers to hold reserve stocks of petrol, diesel and jet fuel in addition to fuel already sold or contracted to customers. The MSO is calibrated to roughly 21 days of forward consumption cover (the precise structure varies by fuel type) and is reported weekly to the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. The MSO is Australia's functional equivalent of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve or European national strategic reserves: a regulatory floor rather than an emergency buffer, but with the same supply-security purpose. As of June 3, 2026, petrol stocks under the MSO are at their highest level since the regime began, and diesel stocks are close to their highest — partly because the conflict triggered industry to maintain higher-than-required levels as a precaution, and partly because the four consecutive improving official prints reflect the demand response to elevated April prices not yet fully reversing.

Is petrol rationed in Australia right now?

No. There is no government-imposed petrol or diesel rationing in Australia as of June 8, 2026 — no volume caps, no station-level allocation, no government decree restricting fuel sales. The PM&C Fuel Supply Taskforce's public position is that stocks of fuel are higher than average and offer a buffer if future challenges emerge. The retail picture is therefore: prices are well off peak (down 29-31% from the end-March peak), supply is reliable, and the active GEF watch on Australia is for the indirect exposure (Hormuz → Asian refineries → Australian imports) and for remote-community access in areas outside the ACCC's five-cities sample — not for an imminent physical shortage in the major urban markets.

Shortages Australia 2026 Forecast

Australia Petrol & Diesel — 2026 Two-Scenario Forecast

Retail petrol price for the five largest Australian cities from February through year-end. RECONCILED Jul 17: observed line now anchors to ACCC's own confirmed prints (157.1/151.5/158.1 c/L, Jun 24-Jul 1) rather than this page's prior unreconciled estimate. Petrol now ~$1.63/L estimated, up from confirmed 158.1 c/L Jul 1. Geelong RCCU restarted Jun 23 at >90% capacity. Two scenarios bracket the Aug 2 decision: extend the remaining 16 c/L or let it expire. Year-end range: ~$1.78–$1.98/L.

Forecast Rebuilt July 17, 2026

AU live status Disruption map Airlines Travel guidance Timeline 2026 Forecast

Australia retail petrol in 2026: observed Feb–Jul 17, plus two forecasts to year-end pivoting on the Aug 2 excise decision

Y-axis is retail petrol price for the five largest Australian cities (AUD cents per litre — Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth). Solid line is observed through Jul 1, with an estimated extension to Jul 17. REBUILT Jul 17: this rebuild anchors the Jun 24–Jul 1 segment to ACCC's own confirmed prints (157.1 c/L Jun 24, 151.5 c/L Jun 30, 158.1 c/L Jul 1), resolving the reconciliation flag this page carried since Jul 15 -- the prior page's ~188-196 c/L chain did not match ACCC's own data and has been replaced, not just relabelled. Every source checked agrees on direction since Jul 1: up, not flat, continuing through mid-July as the Jul 7-16 Hormuz reversal (blockade reinstated, Basra tanker drone-hit) kept crude elevated. Both scenario endpoints are revised down accordingly versus the prior model. Geelong RCCU restart (Jun 23, >90% capacity) and the confirmed 16 c/L excise extension through Aug 2 remain genuine tailwinds. Dashed lines bracket two paths from Jul 17, diverging on whether the remaining 16 c/L expires Aug 2 or gets extended.

Diesel — Australia's import-exposure tell because Middle East crudes refine into more diesel than petrol — is tracked alongside in the metrics box but not on the chart. Diesel was confirmed at 179.1 c/L Jul 1 (ACCC), up from 173.5 c/L Jun 30 and 180.1 c/L Jun 24 -- both fuels move in tandem under either scenario, with diesel roughly 20-25 c/L above petrol at current levels; estimated ~186 c/L today.

December 2026 endpoint — retail petrol, five largest cities

Today (Jul 17) — estimated

~$1.63/L

RECONCILED Jul 17: this rebuild anchors the observed line to ACCC's own CONFIRMED 5-city prints — 157.1 c/L (Jun 24), 151.5 c/L (Jun 30), 158.1 c/L (Jul 1) — replacing the prior page's unreconciled ~188-196 c/L chain, which this page itself had already flagged as inconsistent with ACCC's own data. ~163 c/L is this rebuild's ESTIMATE for Jul 17, extrapolating the confirmed continued-increase trend reported by ACCC's Jul 10 print (data to Jul 8) and independent trackers — not itself a fresh confirmed print.

Scenario 1 — Remaining 16 c/L extended past Aug 2

~$1.78/L

REVISED Jul 17: relief extended beyond Aug 2 on cost-of-living grounds, unchanged mechanism — but the whole curve now sits materially lower than the prior model's ~192 c/L endpoint because it's anchored to ACCC's actually-confirmed 158.1 c/L Jul 1 print rather than the page's own earlier, unreconciled ~188 c/L estimate.

Scenario 2 — Remaining 16 c/L expires Aug 2

~$1.98/L

REVISED Jul 17: the mechanical +16 c/L jump at Aug 2 is unchanged in mechanism, but now jumps from a lower, ACCC-reconciled pre-decision level (~166 c/L, not ~200 c/L) to roughly 182 c/L, then continues drifting up through year-end to ~198 c/L (was ~220 c/L in the unreconciled prior model) as the crude backdrop stays firm.

Geelong refinery status

RCCU RESTARTED Jun 23
>90% capacity confirmed

Viva Energy confirmed Jun 23: RCCU back online at >90% of normal capacity. Alkylation unit remains offline — repair or replacement options being assessed; Geelong operating at slightly reduced capacity into 2027. Australia's largest of two refineries; together cover <20% of national demand.

MSO stock status

Petrol: highest since MSO began
Diesel: close to highest

Per PM&C Fuel Supply Taskforce (data to mid-June): stocks of diesel and petrol above average, fuel "arriving in the quantities, and at the frequency, we need and expect". Emergency shipments secured in early June, incl. 50 ML diesel bound for Kwinana (WA).

Excise decision (the live pivot)

Aug 2, 2026
16 c/L remaining relief if unrenewed

CONFIRMED: government extended 16 c/L (of the original 32 c/L) excise relief from Jul 1 through Aug 2 (PM&C, Jun 20). RECONCILED Jul 17: ACCC's own confirmed 5-city prints (157.1 c/L Jun 24, 151.5 c/L Jun 30, 158.1 c/L Jul 1) now anchor the observed line directly, resolving the reconciliation flag this page carried since Jul 15. Diesel over the same window: 180.1 c/L (Jun 24), 173.5 c/L (Jun 30), 179.1 c/L (Jul 1) — estimated ~186 c/L today. After Aug 2: the remaining 16 c/L either extends again or expires — the live decision the two scenarios bracket.

FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Retail petrol — observed (5 largest cities)

Scenario 1: +16 c/L Jul 1 partial cliff, then 16 c/L extended Aug 2

Scenario 2: +16 c/L Jul 1 partial cliff, then +16 c/L full expiry Aug 2

Forecast model · GEF supply-chain analysis · observed retail prices from ACCC Weekly Fuel Price Monitoring (5 largest cities); stocks from PM&C Fuel Supply Taskforce + DCCEEW MSO weekly reporting · scenarios are illustrative, not guarantees · refreshed after each official print (ACCC Fridays) and on policy events global-energy-flow.com · July 15, 2026

Reading the chart. The solid blue line is observed Australian retail petrol price for the five largest cities, from the pre-conflict baseline (week ending February 20) through the ACCC-confirmed Jul 1 excise step. The shape tells the story of the year so far: a sharp run-up from 177 to 263 cents per litre between Feb 28 (Hormuz closure) and end-March (compounded by the April 15 Geelong refinery fire mid-cycle), followed by a steady recovery through spring — and, RECONCILED Jul 17, the Jun 24-Jul 1 segment now tracks ACCC's own confirmed 5-city prints (157.1 → 151.5 → 158.1 c/L) rather than this page's prior unreconciled estimate. That Jul 1 step is now confirmed fact for both scenarios; they diverge only on Aug 2: Scenario 1 (green) extends the remaining 16 c/L; Scenario 2 (red) lets the full 16 c/L expire, adding another +16 c/L jump on Aug 2.

Scenario 1Remaining 16 c/L extended beyond Aug 2 -- REVISED Jul 17. The excise mechanics are unchanged: 32 c/L dropped to 16 c/L on Jul 1, and on this path the remaining 16 c/L is extended again on Aug 2 on cost-of-living grounds. What's changed this rebuild is the observed anchor: ACCC's own confirmed prints (157.1 → 151.5 → 158.1 c/L, Jun 24-Jul 1) replace this page's prior unreconciled ~188 c/L estimate, pulling the whole curve down. Geelong RCCU remains restarted at >90% capacity, and MSO petrol stocks remain well-supplied — both still genuine tailwinds. Retail petrol eases only modestly from the estimated ~163 c/L Jul 17 level, ending December near 178 c/L; diesel proportionally higher too.

Scenario 2Remaining 16 c/L expires unrenewed Aug 2 -- REVISED Jul 17, now the more consequential path. The excise mechanics are unchanged: on this path, the remaining 16 c/L expires unrenewed on Aug 2, a further mechanical jump from whatever the pre-Aug-2 price is. Brent is trading around $85, holding most of this week's gains from the Jul 7-16 Hormuz reversal (blockade reinstated, Basra tanker drone-hit Jul 16), and nothing this week points toward near-term easing. After the Aug 2 step-up (from an estimated ~166 c/L pre-decision level to roughly 182 c/L immediately after), retail continues drifting upward rather than easing, ending December near 198 c/L; diesel proportionally higher too.

The excise decision (Jul 1 CONFIRMED, Aug 2 PENDING)Jul 1 landed as expected: partial step-up to 16 c/L relief, holding to Aug 2. Aug 2 is the live decision date. The Australian fuel excise was halved from 52.6 to 26.3 cents per litre on April 1, 2026, with states and territories agreeing to forgo GST revenue on fuel (~5.7 c/L) — a combined consumer-facing reduction of about 32 c/L. Rather than allowing the full 32 c/L to expire unrenewed on Jun 30 (feared outcome) or extending the full relief (hoped outcome), the government confirmed Jun 20 that a 16 c/L discount would remain in force until August 2 — and that step landed as scheduled on Jul 1, confirmed by ACCC at 158.1 c/L (up from 151.5 c/L Jun 30). After Aug 2, the cabinet must decide again: extend the remaining 16 c/L (Scenario 1) or let it expire in full (+16 c/L mechanical jump on Aug 2, Scenario 2). The two scenarios on this page now bracket that Aug 2 decision. GEF will update this page after each official ACCC print (Fridays, Australia time) and immediately upon any Aug 2 decision or further cabinet announcement.

Geelong & the MSOAustralia's import-dependence story, and the buffers that exist against it. Australia imports approximately 90% of its refined liquid fuels (petrol, diesel, jet) as a structural feature of its energy market — only Geelong (Viva Energy, Victoria) and Lytton (Ampol, Queensland) remain operating, and together they cover under 20% of national demand. Most refined product arrives from Singapore, South Korea and Japan, whose refineries are themselves significantly supplied by Middle Eastern crude — so the Strait of Hormuz reaches Australia by one-step indirection. Geelong RCCU RESTARTED Jun 23: Viva Energy confirmed the Residue Catalytic Cracking Unit is back online at >90% of normal capacity. The Alkylation unit remains offline and "repair or replacement options are being assessed" — Geelong expected to operate at slightly reduced capacity into 2027. The Minimum Stockholding Obligation (in force since 2022) requires industry to hold roughly 21 days of forward consumption cover. As of the latest PM&C taskforce update (mid-June), stocks of diesel and petrol are above average — with petrol stocks at the highest level since the MSO began. None of this prevented the Jul 1 excise step-up from landing — buffers protect against physical shortages, not tax changes — but they do explain why the GEF Australia pin remains on watch rather than escalating to confirmed shortage.

MethodThis is a scenario forecast, not a prediction. The observed Feb-Jul line is built from ACCC Weekly Fuel Price Monitoring reports plus the PM&C Fuel Supply Taskforce page. RECONCILED Jul 17: the Jun 24-Jul 1 segment now tracks ACCC's own confirmed prints (157.1/151.5/158.1 c/L) directly, resolving the reconciliation flag carried since Jul 15; the Jul 1-17 extension remains an estimate pending a fresh confirmed print. The Jul-Dec branches are illustrative model paths, not guarantees; the real outcome will depend on the federal cabinet's Aug 2 decision on the remaining excise relief, the alkylation unit repair timeline at Geelong, the pace of Hormuz recovery (Day 139, CRITICAL, holding — a contested Basra tanker drone-hit Jul 16, Kpler transits at a 2-month low, but GEF's own AIS audit shows a stable persistent core), international refined-product benchmark movements through winter (Australia's southern-hemisphere season), and weather-driven demand. The model is anchored on the ACCC-confirmed Jul 1 excise step and the Jun 23 Geelong restart, and is refreshed after each official print (ACCC publishes Fridays, Australia time) — and immediately upon any cabinet excise decision or Geelong status change. Sources: ACCC Weekly Fuel Price Monitoring Reports (including the confirmed Jun 24/Jun 30/Jul 1 5-city prints); PM&C Fuel Supply Taskforce public-information page; Viva Energy Jun 23 ASX disclosure on Geelong RCCU restart; Prime Minister of Australia Jun 20 media release (fuel excise relief extended to Aug 2); Australian Taxation Office excise duty rates; DCCEEW MSO weekly reporting. Per-disruption detail and the live AU shortage map at global-energy-flow.com/shortages/australia/.

Related forecasts: the US gas-price + SPR forecast tracks AAA pump price alongside the Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdown (the US equivalent of Australia's MSO); the UK jet-fuel forecast tracks British aviation against the IEA 23-day threshold; the EU petrol & diesel availability forecast covers continental Europe with a different metric (% of normal road-fuel supply). See also the Strait of Hormuz status page and the live global shortage tracker.