Australia Fuel Shortage — Live Status & Disruption Map

Update, 25 September. The rise accelerated. The ACCC’s 29th report shows five-city petrol at 237.1 c/L and diesel at 286.8 c/L in the week to 23 September, up 12.9 and 18.9 c/L, with diesel rising faster than petrol as it has throughout. The ACCC says retail prices broadly followed international refined-fuel benchmarks, which stayed high as the Middle East conflict continued. The easing in the Singapore gasoil benchmark that GEF flagged yesterday had not reached the pump, and the week added fresh pressure: on 24 September Houthi missiles were aimed at Yanbu, the Red Sea terminal Saudi Arabia is reopening to move crude around Hormuz, and Brent settled $106.60. GEF has revised its forecast scenarios up.

24 September. The early-September easing this page reported has reversed. The ACCC’s report of 18 September shows five-city petrol at 224.2 c/L and diesel at 267.9 c/L on 16 September, up from 209.9 and 253.7 a week earlier, and attributes the rise to higher international refined-fuel benchmarks as conflict in the Middle East escalated. The Australian Institute of Petroleum’s national average for the week to 20 September reached 227.3 c/L for unleaded and 273.6 c/L for diesel, from 211.1 and 257.7. The NRMA expects Sydney unleaded in the low-to-mid 240s this week.

Why the price moved without an Australian event. Australia imports the consequence rather than the barrel. With two refineries covering under 20% of demand, most petrol and diesel comes from refiners in Singapore, South Korea and Japan that run on Gulf crude, so pump prices follow the regional product market a week or two behind. That market tightened through mid-September as Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline sat shut and Gulf crude was rerouted through Oman. Diesel carries most of the pressure: it is 110 c/L above its pre-conflict level on the 23 September print, against 66 c/L for petrol, because Middle East crude and Asian refining are distillate-heavy and global distillate stocks are depleted.

The next move may be smaller. The Singapore gasoil benchmark fell from about $200 to $174 a barrel in the week to 23 September (NRMA), and the Saudi pipeline restarted on 22 September at a low rate. Against that, Iran’s President rejected a seven-day Hormuz reopening offer at the UN on 23 September and Brent settled $103.08, up 3.86%. The RACQ says Queensland prices could ease by up to 5 c/L if the benchmark decline holds. The two-scenario forecast was rebuilt today from ACCC prints.

The structure underneath has not changed. Australia imports more than 90% of its refined fuel, the two remaining refineries (Geelong and Lytton) cover under 20% of demand, and it is the only IEA member not meeting the 90-day stockholding requirement — a position held since 2012. Geelong’s RCCU has been back above 90% of capacity since 23 June, but its alkylation unit stays offline into 2027. The May budget’s Fuel Security and Resilience package includes funding for a government-owned reserve of up to one billion litres, and the federal and WA governments are studying a new WA refinery; neither changes supply this year.

Status note, 24 September: the airline details below date from May and June and GEF has not re-verified them this cycle. Several schedule cuts listed ran only to 30 June; check current schedules with the carrier.

Qantas confirmed its second-half fuel bill has risen by $800 million to $3.3 billion, and from May 18 is cutting 3.6% of domestic flights through June 30. Three regional routes are suspended: Adelaide–Mount Gambier indefinitely (currently flown four days per week — both passenger and freight loss for the SA regional community), Melbourne–Coffs Harbour (suspension lapsed mid-June) and Melbourne–Hamilton Island until June 28. The flagship Perth–London QF9 has been rerouted via Singapore since March 4, adding approximately 3 hours to the journey and materially undermining the "Project Sunrise" ultra-long-haul positioning. International routes maintain operations but with A$300+ per-sector fuel-surcharge increases on long-haul.

Virgin Australia has confirmed a 1% reduction in total capacity through June 2026. Operationally it is the worst-performing carrier with a 46% national delay rate — nearly half of all flights arriving late. Virgin's May 14 ASX statement said higher fuel costs are "largely mitigated through effective fuel-hedging and recent airfare and capacity adjustments."

Jetstar has cut trans-Tasman capacity by 12% and domestic capacity by 2.7%. Air New Zealand (cross-listed for trans-Tasman exposure) has cancelled 1,100+ flights for May–June and is taking a further 4% schedule reduction. Travel and Tour World reported 245 disruptions across Australia and New Zealand on May 12 alone — Sydney 64, Melbourne 63, Auckland 34 — with Emirates running a 100% delay rate at Auckland.

Federal Trade Minister Don Farrell has publicly engaged on the Qantas regional cuts, saying the loss of the Mount Gambier route is "particularly concerning... not just in the tourism space, but also the ability of people in Mount Gambier to get to Adelaide and vice versa. Our objective at the moment is to try to find access to all those fuels that we need to keep those services running." Government-to-government engagement on alternative fuel sources is now an active diplomatic file.

The proximate cause is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which approximately 20% of global oil and a similarly material share of refined-product trade historically transits. The strait has been effectively closed since February 28, 2026. Per the International Energy Agency's May 2026 Oil Market Report, cumulative global supply losses since February now exceed one billion barrels — the largest oil-supply disruption in IEA recorded history.

Australia is structurally one of the most-exposed advanced economies. Domestic refining capacity has been hollowed out over two decades — five refineries closed between 2003 and 2021 (Mobil Altona, BP Bulwer Island, Shell Clyde, BP Kwinana, ExxonMobil Altona). Only Viva Energy's Geelong refinery in Victoria and Ampol's Lytton refinery in Brisbane remain, together covering under 20% of national demand. The remaining ~80%+ of refined-product demand is met by imports, primarily from Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan — exactly the Asian product hubs now under pressure as Hormuz-driven re-routing absorbs available cargoes.

The compounding factor is reserves. Australia is the only IEA member country that has not met the 90-day strategic petroleum reserve requirement since 2012. Current stocks of ~44–46 days petrol, ~33 days diesel and ~30 days jet fuel are above the Australian Minimum Stock Obligation but represent roughly one-third of the IEA norm. The $3.2–3.7 billion government-owned reserve announced May 12 is the first major federal response to that structural gap — but it will take years to build out, not weeks.

If you are driving in the cities, fuel is available and normal top-up behaviour is appropriate, but prices are rising: five-city petrol 224.2 c/L and diesel 267.9 c/L on 16 September. Price cycles in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth mean the cheapest day of the week can save 20 c/L or more; state price apps (FuelCheck NSW, Fair Fuel WA, Queensland and Victorian tools) show it.

If you are driving rural or remote routes, plan refuelling stops. Individual sites can run out of one grade for a day or two because of delivery gaps, weather or local demand spikes, even while national stocks are comfortable. Check live availability before long stretches and do not assume the next station has diesel.

If you run a diesel-dependent business, the gap between diesel and petrol is the number to watch: diesel is 110 c/L above its pre-conflict level against 66 c/L for petrol. The Singapore gasoil benchmark, which leads Australian diesel by one to two weeks, eased in the week to 23 September.

If you are flying, fuel surcharges introduced earlier in the year remain in fares; GEF has not re-verified airline schedule changes since June, so check directly with Qantas, Virgin or Jetstar.