Briefings Archive
Daily intelligence briefings on the Strait of Hormuz crisis, jet fuel shortages, pipeline disruptions, and downstream supply-chain impacts. For current real-time data see the main dashboard.
● Geopolitics & Shortages · May 9, 2026
Hormuz Day 70: Iran's 14-Point Response Still Undelivered Into Day 3 of Expected Window — Two Consecutive Nights of Kinetic Exchange (May 7 IRGC Barrage at 3 US Destroyers, May 8 US Navy Strikes 2 Iranian Tankers Attempting Blockade Breach) — UAE 2nd Missile/Drone Barrage in 48 Hours — Trump Pivots to Surprise 3-Day Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire (May 9-11) — Brent Settled $101.29 Friday (+1.2%) But Down ~6.5% on the Week — UK Day +5 Past Cliff Edge Continues to Defy Worst-Case Scenarios
● Geopolitics & Shortages · May 8, 2026
Hormuz Day 69: Diplomatic Track Ruptured by Overnight Kinetic Exchange — IRGC Fired Missiles, Drones, Small Craft at Three US Navy Destroyers · CENTCOM Struck Iranian Launch Sites · Iran Response to 14-Point MoU NOT Yet Delivered · Brent Rebounded ~+1.6% to ~$101.65 · Spirit Day 8 (Court-Approved) · HK Express T-3 Days
● Geopolitics & Shortages · May 7, 2026
Iran Response to Pakistan-Mediated MoU Expected May 8 — Brent Rebounds Modestly After Tuesday's -7.8% Crash on Trump's 'Too Soon' Cooling — GEF Shortage Map Expanded with European Road-Fuel Pins
● Geopolitics · May 6, 2026
Brent Crashes 14% as Trump Pauses 'Project Freedom' Citing 'Great Progress' Toward Iran Deal — But Hapag-Lloyd Refuses Transit and Blockade Remains in Force
● Fuel Shortages · May 2, 2026
Spirit Airlines Collapses — First Major US Carrier Failure in 25 Years as Iran-War Fuel Costs Crush Ultra-Low-Cost Model
● Pipeline & Refining · May 2, 2026
Tuapse Refinery Struck for 4th Time in 14 Days as Russian Refining Capacity Falls to 16-Year Low
● Oil Markets · May 1, 2026
Russia Halts Kazakh Oil Transit to Germany via Druzhba Northern Leg — PCK Schwedt Refinery Supplying 90% of Berlin Fuel Directly Affected
● Geopolitics · May 1, 2026
Brent Hits $126 Wartime Record as US Launches MFC Coalition and Iran Tables Hormuz-First Deal — Diplomacy in Structural Stall
● Intelligence · Apr 28, 2026
Iran's Mines Cannot Be Removed for Six Months — Why a Political Deal Alone Cannot Reopen Hormuz
● Geopolitics · Apr 27, 2026
Iran FM Abandons Pakistan Track, Heads to Moscow — Hormuz Diplomacy in Deepest Crisis Since Ceasefire
● Intelligence · Apr 25, 2026
50 AIS Frames Confirm: Ceasefire Expiry on April 21 Had Zero Physical Effect on Hormuz — HARBOUR PHOENIX Day 56+ Immovable
● Fuel Shortages · Apr 26, 2026
Lufthansa's 20,000 Cancellations Are Structural, Not Tactical — Aviation Industry Has Crossed the Point of No Return on Crisis Response
● Oil Markets · Apr 26, 2026
Druzhba Restarts After 87 Days: What It Does — and Does Not — Fix
● Oil Markets · Apr 17, 2026
Druzhba Restart Imminent: Zelenskyy's End-April Commitment Gains Credibility as Magyar Signals MOL Visit
● Fuel Shortages · Apr 17, 2026
IEA's Six-Week Warning: Europe's Jet Fuel Countdown Reaches Its Most Authoritative Statement Yet
● Fuel Shortages · Apr 17, 2026
Shortage Map Corrected and Escalated: Myanmar Flights Resumed, Geelong Confirmed, Ireland Recovering