GEF's April 17-25 AIS surveillance dataset — 50 MarineTraffic screenshots across Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez, Malacca and Panama — provides the most granular vessel-level intelligence on the global chokepoint system produced since the Hormuz closure began on February 28.
The central finding is unambiguous: the ceasefire expiry on April 21 produced zero measurable change in the Hormuz AIS pattern. The 13-frame Hormuz dataset averages 28 vessels per frame against a pre-crisis baseline of 100+ per day — a 72% reduction. The anchored cluster at the narrows (HARBOUR PHOENIX, NIKI, DELICE, BLACK MAYA, SOUFIA1) has been stationary across the entire 8-day observation window with no positional change. HARBOUR PHOENIX is confirmed at Day 56+ in the same narrows position. Two Chinese-linked vessels — YUAN HUA HU CHINA and YUAN GUI YANG — appear anchored at the south approach in 12 of 13 frames. Three circling vessels (NISSOS KEROS, SEA EMERALD, DESH VIBHOR) appear in all 13 frames in slow holding patterns consistent with extended wait states of several weeks.
At Bab el-Mandeb, the 13-frame dataset averages 19 vessels per frame — 55% below the pre-crisis norm of 40-50 per day. The April 25 frame recorded the highest SAT-AIS rate in the observation window at 32%, indicating elevated Houthi threat perception on the final day of the observation period. RED SEA II has been anchored at Djibouti in all 13 frames — a laid-up vessel awaiting the return of normal Red Sea conditions.
Suez Canal averaged 24 vessels per frame — within pre-crisis range — confirming the canal is at or near capacity absorbing rerouted traffic. Malacca averaged 72 vessels per frame (+8-20% above normal), with LNG carriers present in every frame consistent with Qatar LNG diversion to Asian buyers. Panama averaged 21 vessels per frame, orderly, with US LNG carriers confirmed — the control group validation that the disruption is 100% geopolitical.