Energy Risk Analysis — Weekly Intelligence Briefing & Risk Matrix

The strait stayed closed and the week to 26 October brought a second confirmed strike in two days and a growing queue of ships. UKMTO counts 23 attacks on ships since 1 October. A tanker at anchor was hit off Bukha, Oman, on 21 October, and on 22 October UKMTO reported that a tanker leaving the strait was struck by an unknown projectile about seven nautical miles north-east of Limah, Oman; Gulf News identified it as an LPG tanker, with no casualties and the voyage continuing. GEF missed the Limah report in its Friday update and now counts at least fifteen vessels struck since 1 October, a floor rather than a total. The Joint Maritime Information Center put about 492 vessels waiting outside the strait on 25 October (194 off Fujairah and Khor Fakkan, 178 off Dubai, 55 near Musandam and Sohar, 32 off Bandar Abbas and Qeshm), and IMF PortWatch recorded four transits on 18 October against about 85 a day before the war. The IRGC says two supertankers carrying more than 4.5 million barrels hit mines on an unauthorised route south of the strait; no vessel was named, nothing is independently confirmed, and GEF does not count the claim.

The Saudi front widened. On 22 October Aramco told essential staff at its Dhahran headquarters to evacuate after Houthi strikes on the site, and the US ordered embassy staff and families out of Saudi Arabia. On 24 October the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at Riyadh and then at Taif and Yanbu, the Red Sea terminal of the East–West pipeline, and Civil Defence reported debris in Mecca, which the Houthis denied targeting; more drones and missiles were intercepted on Sunday, and Air India suspended Riyadh and Dammam flights to 7 November and Jeddah to 31 October. The Houthis say they hit three Saudi airports, two oil facilities including Yanbu and the Rabigh refinery, a pipeline and an air base. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed any hit and GEF does not publish the claims as fact. A Saudi bypass that is intercepted is still a working bypass, but every salvo aimed at Yanbu raises the odds that the corridor itself is disrupted.

Diplomacy and force are moving at the same time. Qatari mediators were reported in Tehran on Sunday in a US-coordinated effort to ease tensions. Trump said on Friday the US ‘may do another little Epic Fury’ and on Saturday that a strike could come ‘tomorrow’, while also raising a ‘big, beautiful’ deal; envoy Tom Barrack said a strike could ‘absolutely’ come over the weekend, and the Wall Street Journal reported the USS George Washington was being rearmed with standoff missiles and bunker-busters. No US strike was reported. GEF reports these as statements, not as decisions. The US is sending the Theodore Roosevelt carrier group, about 10,000 troops and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit by the end of November, and Reuters reported Iran has plans to target Gulf undersea cables if war resumes. Iran says it would reopen the strait if Washington lifts its naval blockade; the Mehr agency denied Tehran had conveyed such a proposal. Pezeshkian is due to meet Putin on 27 October, Israel votes the same day and the US midterms are on 3 November.

Crude rose on the escalation. Brent (Dec) settled $109.55 on Monday 19 October, $108.79 on Tuesday and $108.82 on Wednesday, then $113.17 on Thursday (+4.0%) and $116.72 on Friday 23 October (+3.1%), its highest settle since 29 April and about 6% up on the week from $109.86. WTI (Dec) settled $103.27 on Friday (+3.8%), a spread of about $13.45. On Monday morning Brent was near $114.6 and WTI near $101.1 (indicative). The settles are triangulated across Rio Times, Straits brief and FinanceFeeds. Kpler data cited by the Wall Street Journal put Hormuz flows near 14 million b/d, about 82% of pre-war, a preliminary estimate that sits uneasily with four PortWatch transits and a 492-ship queue; GEF publishes ranges rather than a single figure for that reason.

Policy tried to cushion the diesel market. On 21 October the US Energy Department offered to lend up to 315,000 barrels of ultra-low-sulphur distillate, about a third of the 1-million-barrel Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, with bids due 27 October and delivery by 13 November, after a letter from Senators Collins and King. The EIA’s report for the week to 16 October showed commercial crude down 3.1 million barrels to 412.5 million, distillate up 1.7 million to 104.3 million (about 9% below the five-year average, narrowed from about 12%) and the SPR down 0.3 million to 282.7 million barrels, the lowest since 1982. At the pump AAA put US regular at $4.28 a gallon on 26 October, little changed from $4.27 on 22 October; GEF carries diesel at $6.34 from 26 October. The new Russia sanctions waiver of 16 October remains in place with no final decision reported.

Europe’s gas refill is borderline. GEF’s direct GIE AGSI+ read puts EU storage at 74.93% (848.818 TWh) on gas day 26 October. Injection fell back to 1,257 GWh/d against withdrawal of 1,095, a net injection of about 162 GWh/d, so the weekend rebound did not hold: the 44-day pace is +0.16 points a day and reaching the relaxed 80% target by 1 November now needs about +0.84 a day. At the 44-day pace storage reaches about 75.9%, marginally below the lower edge of the regulation’s flexibility band, and at the latest day’s pace about 75.1%; the original 90% target would need about +2.51 a day and is out of reach. The percentage is unchanged from GEF’s previous read even though the TWh figure rose, which reflects GIE’s revisions to estimated national data; GEF reports GIE’s displayed figures. Germany is at 61.65% and the Netherlands at 65.53% (both estimated). TTF reached about €92–93 on Friday, its highest since December 2022 (indicative).

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Base case (50%): no US strike before the 3 November midterms but the war keeps widening on the Saudi and shipping fronts, with Qatari mediation producing talk rather than a reopening; Brent $108–122; US regular $4.25–4.45; EU gas finishes near 75–77%, short of 80% and at or below the lower edge of the regulation’s flexibility band. Upside risk to prices (30%): US or Israeli strikes on Iran resume, or damage to Yanbu, the East–West pipeline or Saudi export infrastructure is confirmed; Brent above $125 and TTF above €100. Downside (20%): the Qatari channel produces a framework on the blockade and the strait; Brent back toward $100. Any of these can switch on a single incident; GEF treats the paths as scenarios, not forecasts.