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The week ran hard toward de-escalation and reversed in a single session. Crude fell four consecutive days on softer-than-expected sanctions and corridor diplomacy, taking Brent from $92.06 on Monday to an $89.31 settle on Friday, more than 5% down on the week. Then on Sunday US Central Command said the US military struck Iranian rocket launchers preparing to send mines into the waterway, and Brent for November reopened above $90 with WTI near $86.

The contradiction is the story. Iran and Oman agreed a temporary Hormuz corridor on 25–26 August whose headline feature is a joint mine-clearing project. Days later Tehran was preparing to lay mines in the same waterway. GEF does not know which track represents Iranian intent and will not pretend to: the two are incompatible, and the corridor cannot be assessed as credible until that resolves.

The EIA published the conflict’s most authoritative volume series this week. Crude and petroleum liquids through Hormuz averaged 4.9 million b/d in Q2 2026 against 21.6 million b/d in Q4 2025 — about 23% of pre-war, measured in barrels rather than hulls. Production shut-ins averaged 5.5 million b/d in July.

Bab el-Mandeb moved the opposite way: 8.1 million b/d in Q2 against 5.4 million in Q4 2025, as Saudi Arabia rerouted crude through the East–West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea. Relieving one chokepoint loaded another — 2.7 million b/d of additional throughput arriving at a strait where the Houthis have declared a blockade on Saudi shipping and struck the Jazan refinery.

GEF now carries three independent measures of the same waterway and they disagree instructively: vessel counts at roughly a tenth of normal, EIA barrels at 23% of pre-war, and Goldman’s export estimate at two-thirds. They measure hulls observed, barrels through the strait, and barrels reaching market by any route. The spread between them is the dark-shuttle trade.

Lloyd’s List also recorded 114 transits in the week to 23 August, up more than 50% from 73, including ADNOC, Sinokor, Saudi and Kuwaiti tonnage — compliant owners returning rather than dark tonnage substituting. GEF had been publishing the 73 figure as current and corrected it in the open. The recovery did not hold: the following Monday and Tuesday ran near five vessels a day.

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Crisis Timeline

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Issue #40 · September 7, 2026

Hormuz Day 184 — mines, both ways: the US strikes Iranian launchers preparing to mine the strait, days after Tehran agreed a corridor whose headline feature is joint mine-clearing; crude reverses back above $90

The EIA published the conflict’s most authoritative volume series this week. Crude and petroleum liquids through Hormuz averaged 4.9 million b/d in Q2 2026 against 21.6 million b/d in Q4 2025 — about 23% of pre-war, measured in barrels rather than hulls. Bab el-Mandeb moved the opposite way, to 8.1 million b/d from 5.4 million, as Saudi Arabia rerouted crude to Yanbu on the Red Sea. Relieving one chokepoint loaded another.

Lloyd’s List recorded 114 transits in the week to 23 August, up more than 50% from 73, including ADNOC, Sinokor, Saudi and Kuwaiti tonnage — compliant owners returning rather than dark tonnage substituting. GEF had been publishing the 73 figure as current and corrected it in the open. The recovery did not hold: the following Monday and Tuesday ran near five vessels a day. GEF holds Hormuz at CRITICAL.

Analyst outlook

The question is whether Sunday’s strike was an isolated interdiction or the end of the diplomatic track. If mine-laying continues the corridor is dead regardless of what is signed, and the 30–60 day permanent-route negotiation becomes theatre. Watch Bab el-Mandeb more closely than Hormuz: it is carrying 8.1 million b/d, half again its pre-war volume, into a declared blockade, with Jazan’s restart already slipped once — and a disruption there hits a system with no remaining reroute, because the Red Sea route is the reroute. GEF moves Hormuz off CRITICAL on a confirmed, sustained rise in observable transits, not on an announcement. One dated item lands next week: Canada’s federal fuel excise holiday expires on 7 September.

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