Day 111 update (June 19). The crisis that began February 28 has crossed its most consequential threshold: the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding was signed Wednesday, June 17 — two days ahead of the originally planned Geneva ceremony, after both sides confirmed the text was finalized and chose not to wait. The originally-scheduled June 19 Switzerland formal signing session was cancelled as redundant. The US lifted the naval blockade on Thursday, June 18, with CENTCOM announcing: “Hormuz is international waters. Transit is free.” On Thursday evening and through Friday, the first Saudi-owned crude tankers since February 28 transited the strait’s Oman/Iran coastal routes — approximately 10 million barrels of Saudi-flagged and Saudi-chartered tonnage clearing the chokepoint in the first 24-hour window. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire was reached on June 19, removing one of Iran’s stated justifications for closure and clearing the parallel diplomatic track. GEF has de-rated Hormuz from CRITICAL to ELEVATED (recovery-fragile), reflecting that the strait is physically reopening but the recovery clock is measured in weeks and months, not hours.
The reopening is real but stop-start. On Friday morning Tehran floated a mandatory transit-insurance charge — a per-vessel fee payable to the Iranian Port Authority as a condition of passage through the Iranian-controlled corridor. This triggered a brief flow slowdown as operators contacted their brokers and P&I clubs; within six hours, CENTCOM confirmed flows had resumed and the insurance charge had not been formally implemented. The incident underscores the operative GEF caution: a signed agreement is a necessary but not sufficient condition for full recovery. The mined central shipping channel — the primary deep-water route used by VLCCs and large tankers before the crisis — remains uncleared, with approximately 80 mines laid and a French-German-UK-US mine-clearing task force estimating 40–50 days to clear the corridor under current sea conditions. Until the central channel reopens, traffic is restricted to the shallower Oman/Iran coastal routes, which can accommodate Aframax and mid-size tonnage but not the largest VLCCs at full load. The physical throughput ceiling during this transition period is therefore well below pre-crisis levels, and analysts at ClearView Energy Partners are maintaining their estimate that full pre-war flow restoration will take multiple quarters even from this milestone.
Crude priced the signing before the ink dried. Brent settled $80.59 Friday, −8.5% on the week — the sharpest weekly decline of the crisis and, more significantly, the first settle below $82 since before the war. WTI settled $77.32. Brent is now approximately 38% below the April crisis peak (~$130/bbl) and ~14% below the Friday June 12 settle ($93.10). The unwinding of the war premium has been faster than most analysts forecast, driven by three forces converging simultaneously: the signed MoU, the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, and an ongoing structural demand-side drag (the EIA’s June STEO revised 2026 global oil demand to a decline of 1.1 mb/d, the first negative year in the forecast since 2020). The rapid price fall has not yet translated into immediate retail relief for most markets — the 6-to-8-week cargo cycle means that Monday’s crude settle has minimal impact on fuel prices consumers will see before late July at the earliest.
The shortage map has been updated to 8 active + 20 watch following a rolling 14-day re-confirmation audit. Ecuador has been removed (Esmeraldas refinery recovery held; no dry-station reports since June 2). Kenya has been removed from active shortage (EPRA cut diesel a second consecutive time on June 15 to Ksh 222.86 Nairobi; no dry-station confirmation in over three weeks). Slovenia was demoted from shortage to watch pending a June 22 re-verification deadline (the March 23 rationing decree has not been confirmed renewed or revoked; 14-day burden-of-proof rule applied). Pins held active include Spirit Airlines (permanent revenue-model collapse), Norse-LAX (permanent), Air Canada Cuba indefinitely, Russia (53 regions domestic shortage, distinct from and not resolved by Hormuz), Cathay/HK Express aviation cuts (through June 30), Australia aviation (Geelong RCCU restart scheduled July 2), and Cuba (US-Venezuela blockade). The aviation segment bears close watching: IATA’s Jet Fuel Monitor for the week ending June 13 showed jet fuel at $146.67/bbl, down from the late-April peak (~$181) but still well above pre-crisis levels; with the strait reopening, the aviation fuel stress should ease steadily through July as Middle East cargoes re-enter the supply chain.
Forward calendar: Bürgenstock quadrilateral talks (US-Iran, Pakistan, Qatar) scheduled for the week of June 22 — the first post-MoU diplomatic session focused on the de-confliction channel, Lebanon ceasefire enforcement, and the 60-day nuclear negotiation track. Mine-clearing in the central Hormuz channel continues; first VLCC-capable transit via that route is the key physical milestone to watch. The Australia fuel excise cliff (Jun 30 expiry) and the Cathay/HK Express route-cut review (Jun 30) are the next near-term shortage-map events. For the current matrix and analyst outlook, see the Risk Analysis page.