Will US gas prices go up in 2026?

US gas prices went up sharply in 2026: the AAA national average rose from $2.98 on February 26 to a peak of $4.55 on May 21, eased to $3.86 by June 29 and bottomed near $3.79 on July 7 as crude fell on the Hormuz reopening and the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum. That trend reversed sharply the same week: three vessels were struck near Oman, the US declared the ceasefire "over," struck Iran three consecutive nights, and by July 14 the US Navy had reimposed its Hormuz blockade and announced a new 20% transit toll. Brent settled +9.59% on July 13 and is trading near $86, about 19% above its pre-war level. The pump price has followed, reversing to $3.87 by July 14. GEF has revised the scenarios accordingly: the new base case (~50%) is a sustained standoff — the blockade and toll persist without full closure — grinding to about $4.15/gallon by year-end. A de-escalation case (~25%, demoted from the prior 60% base case) eases to about $3.60 if the blockade lifts. An escalation tail (~25%, up from 10%) sees a further kinetic cycle push prices to about $5.35 — this time EXCEEDING the 2022 record of $5.00.

How high will US gas prices get in 2026?

The 2022 historical peak of $5.00/gallon (one-week record, June 2022) is the natural reference point — and GEF's revised escalation scenario now projects EXCEEDING it. Three scenarios for December 2026: $3.60 (de-escalation, ~25%, the blockade lifts and Brent eases), $4.15 (sustained standoff, the new base case ~50%, the blockade and 20% transit toll persist without full closure), and $5.35 (escalation tail, ~25%, up from 10% in the prior model — a further kinetic cycle, potentially a Bab el-Mandeb front or a strike on Kharg Island). The peak so far in 2026 was $4.55 on May 21, but the current trajectory (a $3.79 Jul 7 trough reversing to $3.87 by Jul 14 as the blockade was reimposed) means the escalation tail is no longer a remote possibility relative to the base case — the pattern of repeated re-escalation cycles through 2026 is why GEF raised its weight from 10% to 25%.

Is the United States running out of oil?

No. The US is the world's largest oil producer (13.6 million barrels per day in 2025) and was running a multi-year refill of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve when the Iran conflict began. What is happening is a rapid drawdown of the SPR — the federal emergency buffer designed to be used in exactly this kind of supply shock. As of the latest available data (week ending July 3, final EIA figure), the SPR sat at approximately 319.5 million barrels — down about 6.2 million on the week, roughly 95.5 million barrels since the war began on February 28, and the lowest level since April 1983, now below even the 2023 drawdown low. Notably, commercial crude oil (a separate, non-emergency stockpile) actually BUILT for the first time in 10 weeks the same week, so the SPR draw is not simply mirroring the broader crude picture. The reserve is functioning as designed; the analytical question is when the drawdown rate has to slow because of physical floor mechanics, not whether the country is running out of oil.

When will the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve run out?

The SPR cannot literally 'run out' because of how it is engineered — the four salt-dome storage sites in Texas and Louisiana have hydraulic limits that prevent maximum-rate pumping below roughly 250 million barrels. Below that level, you can still draw oil, but not as fast, and the buffer effect on crude prices weakens substantially. At the SPR's recent draw rate (~6.2 million barrels in the week ending Jul 3 alone), the 319.5 million barrel level as of July 3 sits just ~69.5 million barrels above the ~250 mbbl floor. GEF's REVISED scenarios (Jul 14): the de-escalation case (~25%) sees the draw bottom out near 310 mbbl before a partial refill begins, ending near 330 mbbl by December 31; the new base-case sustained-standoff scenario (~50%) sees continued drawing to about 270 mbbl; the escalation tail (~25%, up from 10% in the prior model) now sees the reserve BREACH the ~250 mbbl operational floor, ending near 246 mbbl.

Why aren't US gas stations rationing fuel?

Because US gas-supply stress is operating as a price phenomenon rather than a physical-shortage phenomenon. There is no decree from Washington restricting how much fuel an individual driver may buy, no station-level allocation caps, and no queues comparable to the 1973–74 oil crisis. The mechanism currently in operation is price rationing — pump prices rise until enough demand is destroyed (people drive less, airlines adjust capacity) to balance the available supply. The IEA's Fatih Birol has described this as a 'rationing function.' Physical rationing risk has historically been more concrete in parts of Europe and Asia, though the picture there is also easing as Hormuz transit normalizes; see the EU and individual-country shortage pages for current status.

How much does gas cost in California vs Oklahoma right now?

State-level pump prices diverge sharply across the US in 2026. The most expensive state remains California at about $5.71/gallon, with Hawaii, Washington, Nevada and Oregon also well above average. The cheapest are in the Gulf and lower-Midwest band — Oklahoma, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas — around $3.98–$4.02/gallon. The spread between California and the cheapest states is therefore roughly $1.70/gallon — a bit under half the national average price. State-level taxes, environmental regulations (California's CARB-spec gasoline costs more to refine), refining capacity, and pipeline access are the structural drivers of the regional differential.

Shortages United States 2026 Forecast

US Gas Prices & the SPR Buffer — 2026 Three-Scenario Forecast

AAA national-average pump price plus the Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdown, side by side. Three REVISED paths to December: de-escalation, sustained standoff, or escalation. Today: $3.87/gallon (Jul 14, reversing upward off a $3.79 Jul 7 trough; Brent settled +9.59% Jul 13 at $83.30, now ~19% above pre-war); SPR 319.5 mbbl per the Jul 3 print (final, lowest since April 1983). Sustained standoff is now the base case as the US blockade and 20% transit toll persist.

Forecast Revised July 14, 2026

US live status Disruption map State prices Airlines Timeline 2026 Forecast

US gas prices and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in 2026: observed to July 14, plus three revised forecasts to year-end

Two charts, same x-axis. The top chart is the AAA national-average pump price — what readers actually pay. The bottom chart is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — the federal emergency buffer that has been muffling crude price spikes from reaching the pump in full. Solid lines are observed: AAA daily through Jul 14 (pump chart) and EIA WPSR prints through Jul 3 (SPR chart, all figures now final). Dashed lines are three REVISED scenarios for the remainder of 2026. The Jun 17 Islamabad Memorandum broke down the week of Jul 7: three vessels were struck near Oman, the US revoked Iran's oil-sale waiver and struck Iran three consecutive nights, and by Jul 14 the US Navy had reimposed its Hormuz blockade and announced a new 20% transit toll. Brent, which had closed Q2 near $73, settled +9.59% on Jul 13 at $83.30 and is trading near $86 intraday — now roughly 19% above its pre-war level. The pump price bottomed at $3.79 on Jul 7 and has reversed upward to $3.87 by Jul 14. Given this, GEF has revised the scenario weights: a sustained-standoff grind is now the base case (~50%, up from a 30% "slow grind" before), de-escalation has been demoted to the optimistic case (~25%, down from a 60% "continued recovery" base case), and the escalation tail has grown (~25%, up from ~10%) and now projects a year-end price that EXCEEDS the 2022 record. Underlying data: AAA $3.87 (Jul 14), SPR 319.5 mbbl (Jul 3, lowest since April 1983).

The two charts now tell a story of reversal, not just divergence: the pump-price line fell faster than the old (Jul 1) base case assumed, bottomed at $3.79 on Jul 7 — almost exactly the week Hormuz re-escalated — then turned upward, reaching $3.87 by Jul 14. Over the same window the SPR kept drawing, from 325.7 to 319.5 mbbl, a new low since April 1983. The old base case (continued recovery to $3.50 by December) is now the optimistic minority case, not the center of the distribution — it required the Jun 17 MoU to hold, and it did not. GEF is not treating this as a minor forecast miss to quietly patch: the underlying regime changed (blockade reinstated, a new US transit toll, Brent up double digits in days) and the scenario weights have been rebuilt around the new anchor point rather than sliding the old endpoints sideways. The SPR's role as a price-shock absorber is also now more strained: a further leg of drawdown continues across all three scenarios, and the escalation tail — which previously approached but did not reach the 250 mbbl operational floor — now breaches it.

December 2026 endpoint range — AAA national average ($3.60 de-escalation → $5.35 escalation tail, base case $4.15)

Today (Jul 14) — observed

$3.87

AAA national average, reversing upward off a $3.79 Jul 7 trough. Brent settled +9.59% Mon Jul 13 at $83.30, trading ~$86 intraday Tue. State extremes: Hawaii $5.46, Indiana $3.06.

Scenario 1 — De-escalation

$3.60

OPTIMISTIC CASE (~25%, demoted from the prior 60% base case). The US blockade lifts, the 20% transit toll is dropped or unenforced, Brent eases back toward the $70s. Pump price drifts down from today's $3.87 toward the $2.98 pre-conflict floor but does not fully close the gap. Year-end ~$3.60.

Scenario 2 — Sustained standoff

$4.15

NEW BASE CASE (~50%, up from 30%). The blockade and 20% transit toll persist for weeks/months without full closure or full resolution; Brent holds in the $80-90 range. Pump price grinds up from today's $3.87, ending near $4.15.

Scenario 3 — Escalation tail

$5.35

TAIL RISK (~25%, up from 10%). A further kinetic cycle — a Bab el-Mandeb front opens, or Kharg Island is struck — pushes Brent toward $110+. SPR breaches the ~250 mbbl operational floor and the buffer's price-muffling capacity is exhausted just as a fresh shock hits. Year-end ~$5.35 — this time EXCEEDING the 2022 record.

Reference: 2022 historical peak

$5.00 / gal
June 2022, one-week record

The 2022 peak (Russia-Ukraine + post-COVID demand) was the ceiling every prior scenario stayed under. Scenario 3 (the escalation tail) now EXCEEDS it at $5.35 — a materially more severe tail than the prior model's $5.20, reflecting the pattern of repeated re-escalation cycles through 2026.

Reference: SPR operational floor

~250 mbbl
salt-dome hydraulic limit

Below ~250 mbbl, the four Gulf-coast salt-dome caverns cannot sustain maximum-rate pumping (brine displacement geometry). Currently 319.5 mbbl (Jul 3 print, final, lowest since April 1983, below even the 2023 drawdown low) — ~69.5 mbbl above the floor. The escalation scenario now projects breaching it by December.

Chart 1 — AAA national-average pump price ($/gallon)

The headline number. What drivers pay. Y-axis $3 to $7; the 2022 historical peak of $5.00 marked as a dashed reference; the pre-conflict baseline of $2.98 visible at the chart floor.

Chart 2 — Strategic Petroleum Reserve, million barrels

The buffer mechanic. As the SPR depletes toward its ~250 mbbl operational floor, its capacity to muffle crude spikes weakens. The lower the SPR sits, the steeper the corresponding pump-price scenario above.

FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

AAA pump price — observed

SPR inventory — observed

Scenario 1: De-escalation (~25%)

Scenario 2: Sustained standoff — base case (~50%)

Scenario 3: Escalation tail (~25%)

Forecast model · GEF supply-chain analysis · pump prices from AAA daily averages · SPR levels from EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report · scenarios are illustrative, not guarantees · model REVISED Jul 14 after the Jun 17 MoU broke down the week of Jul 7 (US blockade reinstated, new 20% transit toll, three consecutive nights of strikes) — see the divergence note above global-energy-flow.com · July 1, 2026

Reading the chart. The two solid blue lines are observed: the top chart shows the AAA national-average pump price climbed from $2.98 on February 26 (pre-conflict) to a peak of $4.55 on May 21, eased to $3.86 by June 29, bottomed at $3.79 on July 7, then REVERSED — climbing to $3.87 by July 14 as the Strait of Hormuz re-escalated (US blockade reinstated, new 20% transit toll, Brent up 19% versus pre-war in days). The bottom chart shows the Strategic Petroleum Reserve falling from approximately 415 million barrels on February 28 to 319.5 million barrels on July 3 (latest print, final) — a drawdown of about 95.5 million barrels since the conflict began, now below even the 2023 drawdown low and the lowest level since April 1983. The three REVISED dashed paths bracket what happens between now and year-end. The key analytical move on this page is reading the two charts together: pump prices reversed almost exactly the week the SPR's draw resumed pace and the blockade returned — the two charts are now moving in the SAME direction (both worsening) rather than the diverging pattern seen in late June, when price was recovering while the buffer kept thinning. In the escalation tail, the SPR now breaches the buffer-exhaustion zone by December at the same moment the pump price in the chart above climbs past the 2022 record — that is the buffer mechanic under real stress, not a hypothetical.

Scenario 1De-escalation — the blockade lifts, the transit toll is dropped or unenforced. Now the OPTIMISTIC case (~25%, demoted from the prior 60% base case). The June 17 Islamabad Memorandum, which broke down the week of July 7, is renegotiated or a new arrangement takes hold; the US Navy stands down its reimposed blockade; Brent eases back toward the $70s as the transit-toll dispute resolves. On this path, the SPR draw bottoms out in the coming weeks near 310 mbbl before a partial refill begins in Q4, ending near 330 mbbl. The national-average pump price drifts down from today's $3.87 toward the $2.98 pre-conflict floor but does not fully close the gap, reflecting a persistent risk premium tied to the thin domestic buffer — ending December near $3.60. This was the base case as of the Jul 1 model; the events of Jul 7-14 have moved it to the tail.

Scenario 2Sustained standoff — the blockade and 20% transit toll persist without full closure. Now the BASE CASE (~50%, up from 30%). The pattern of the last two weeks continues: intermittent strikes, a blockade that raises costs and friction without fully stopping flow, and a toll dispute that neither side backs down from. Kpler-tracked transits stay depressed (well below the pre-crisis 34-42/day band) without collapsing to zero. The SPR keeps drawing through the second half of the year as Washington manages the ongoing standoff without refilling, ending December around 270 mbbl. The national-average pump price grinds up from today's $3.87 as the elevated Brent level (roughly $80-90) passes through to the pump, ending the year near $4.15.

Scenario 3Escalation — a further kinetic cycle opens a new front. Tail risk (~25%, up from 10%). A Bab el-Mandeb front opens alongside Hormuz, or a strike lands on Kharg Island itself (Trump has floated this), pushing Brent toward $110+. The SPR drawdown accelerates through Q3 and Q4, BREACHING the ~250 mbbl operational floor by December — where salt-dome hydraulics force a sharp pace reduction and the buffer's price-muffling capacity is exhausted just as the shock peaks. National-average pump price climbs past the 2022 record, ending December near $5.35. This is the path that would revive the policy conversations (export caps, refining mandates, demand-side measures) that a calmer trajectory had kept off the table — and after two re-escalation cycles in six weeks (late June and again July 7-14), GEF now weights this scenario more heavily than the prior model did.

SPR mechanicWhy the buffer is the right thing to watch. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not a price-setting tool, but it is the federal government's most direct lever on retail-gasoline price action. The four salt-dome caverns in Texas and Louisiana hold up to ~714 million barrels at design capacity; the operational floor — below which oil can still be drawn but not at full rate — sits around 250 million barrels (this is the hydraulic-limit number, set by the brine displacement geometry of the caverns themselves, not by policy). Above the floor, every barrel released into the crude market reduces the marginal price that gasoline refiners pay for feedstock, and that flows through to pump prices with a one-to-two-week lag. Below the floor, that mechanic breaks: the draw rate caps out at a fraction of what's needed to muffle a spike, and crude prices flow into pump prices more directly. The recent drawdown rate has been roughly 6.2 million barrels in the week ending Jul 3 alone; the reserve is now below even the 2023 drawdown low and at its lowest level since April 1983, reaching 319.5 mbbl on the Jul 3 print — just ~69.5 mbbl above the floor. At the current pace, the ~250 mbbl floor could be reached well before year-end if the draw continued unbroken, and unlike the situation two weeks ago, crude prices are now RISING rather than easing — meaning the reserve is thinning at the same moment the shock it exists to absorb is intensifying. That is the structural contradiction the escalation scenario captures directly: the next genuine supply shock would land on the weakest domestic buffer position in more than four decades, at the same time crude itself is under renewed upward pressure.

State extremesWhat gas costs across the country today. Beneath the $3.87 national average sits a regional spread of more than $2.25/gallon, structured by state taxes, environmental specifications (California's CARB-spec gasoline costs more to refine), refining capacity, and pipeline access.

Most expensive (per AAA, Jul 7)

Hawaii$5.46

California$5.38

Washington$4.99

Alaska$4.69

Nevada$4.55

Least expensive (per AAA, Jul 7)

Indiana$3.21

Oklahoma$3.40

Texas$3.41

Mississippi$3.43

Kentucky$3.45

The California–Oklahoma spread of $1.73/gallon is approximately 45% of the national average — structural, and persists across all crude-price environments. In Scenario 3 this spread widens further — high-tax, CARB-spec states absorb a larger share of any price increase because their underlying refining cost structure is already stressed. For continuously updated state-level prices, see AAA's state gas-price averages.

MethodThis is a scenario forecast, not a prediction. The observed Feb–Jul pump-price line is built from AAA daily national averages; the observed SPR line is from EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Reports (all figures now final). The Jul–Dec branches are illustrative model paths, not guarantees, and were REBUILT from scratch on Jul 14 after the Jun 17 MoU broke down: the real outcome will depend on whether the US blockade and 20% transit toll persist, escalate further (a Bab el-Mandeb front, a Kharg Island strike), or de-escalate; the rate at which Washington draws or refills the SPR; refinery uptime; and winter weather severity. Revised July 14, 2026. Sources: AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report (national average $3.87, Jul 14), EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (week ending Jul 3, released Jul 8: SPR 319.5 mbbl, commercial crude 411.3 mbbl), EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve historical inventory, US Department of Energy SPR Quick Facts, CNBC/CNN/Al Jazeera/Bloomberg crude tape (Brent Jul 13 settle $83.30, Jul 14 intraday ~$86), Kpler/Windward Hormuz transit counts, CENTCOM/ADNOC/Jordan Armed Forces (blockade, tanker strikes, missile interceptions). Per-disruption detail and the live US shortage map at global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-states/.

Related forecasts: the Australia petrol & diesel forecast tracks the June 30 fuel-excise cliff and the Geelong refinery RCCU restart (two scenarios); the UK jet-fuel forecast tracks British aviation against the IEA 23-day threshold (three scenarios); the EU petrol & diesel availability forecast covers continental Europe (road-fuel-led stress, two scenarios). See also the Strait of Hormuz status page and the live global shortage tracker.