Will US gas prices go up in 2026?

US gas prices already went up sharply in 2026: the AAA national average rose from $2.98 on February 26 to a peak of $4.55 on May 7, before easing to $4.29 on June 3 as the May deal-optimism wave moderated crude. Whether prices climb further depends on three things — the outcome of US-Iran diplomacy, how long the Strategic Petroleum Reserve buffer keeps muffling crude spikes, and winter heating demand from October. GEF's three scenarios bracket the year-end outcome between $3.75/gallon (deal lands, SPR refills) and $6.35/gallon (escalation continues, SPR approaches its 250-mbbl operational floor, winter heating compounds pressure). The June 3 kinetic exchange — US CENTCOM strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island plus Iran ballistic missiles toward Kuwait and Bahrain — tilted probabilities away from the deal scenario.

How high will US gas prices get in 2026?

The 2022 historical peak of $5.00/gallon (one-week record, June 2022) is the natural reference point. GEF's three scenarios for December 2026 range from $3.75 (deal-and-recovery path) through $5.40 (slow grind — SPR depletes, diplomatic gridlock, no escalation) to $6.35 (escalation plus winter heating — would exceed the 2022 record by ~27%). The peak so far in 2026 was $4.55 on May 7. Reaching the high end of the forecast range requires the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to approach its ~250-mbbl operational floor and the buffer mechanic to weaken — which on current drawdown trajectory could happen by late September.

Is the United States running out of oil?

No. The US is the world's largest oil producer (13.6 million barrels per day in 2025) and was running a multi-year refill of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve when the Iran conflict began. What is happening is a rapid drawdown of the SPR — the federal emergency buffer designed to be used in exactly this kind of supply shock. As of EIA's May 28 release (data for week ending May 22), the SPR sat at 365.1 million barrels, down more than 50 million barrels since the war began on February 28 and the lowest level since April 2024. The reserve is functioning as designed; the analytical question is when the drawdown rate has to slow because of physical floor mechanics, not whether the country is running out of oil.

When will the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve run out?

The SPR cannot literally 'run out' because of how it is engineered — the four salt-dome storage sites in Texas and Louisiana have hydraulic limits that prevent maximum-rate pumping below roughly 250 million barrels. Below that level, you can still draw oil, but not as fast, and the buffer effect on crude prices weakens substantially. At the SPR's recent draw rate of approximately 8–10 million barrels per week, the 365.1 million barrel level as of May 22 would reach the ~250 mbbl floor in roughly 10–12 weeks — but Washington would slow the draw well before then to preserve operational flexibility. GEF's base-case scenario (slow grind) sees the SPR at approximately 270 mbbl by December 31; the downside scenario (escalation) sees it at approximately 252 mbbl, essentially at the operational floor.

Why aren't US gas stations rationing fuel?

Because US gas-supply stress is operating as a price phenomenon rather than a physical-shortage phenomenon. There is no decree from Washington restricting how much fuel an individual driver may buy, no station-level allocation caps, and no queues comparable to the 1973–74 oil crisis. The mechanism currently in operation is price rationing — pump prices rise until enough demand is destroyed (people drive less, airlines cut capacity — United Airlines has already announced a 5% capacity cut for Q2 and Q3) to balance the available supply. The IEA's Fatih Birol has described this as a 'rationing function.' Physical rationing risk is much more concrete in Europe, where Slovenia has been rationing road fuel since March 22 and the EU's own June 17 ban on Russian short-term pipeline gas takes effect this month.

How much does gas cost in California vs Oklahoma right now?

State-level pump prices diverge sharply across the US in 2026. The most expensive states (per AAA's latest published averages) are California at $5.84/gallon, Hawaii at $5.33, Washington at $5.30, Nevada at $4.86, and Oregon at $4.86. The cheapest are Oklahoma at $3.27/gallon, Kansas at $3.27, Iowa at $3.31, Nebraska at $3.38, and Arkansas at $3.39. The spread between California and Oklahoma is therefore approximately $2.57/gallon — about 60% of the national average price. State-level taxes, environmental regulations (California's CARB-spec gasoline costs more to refine), refining capacity, and pipeline access are the structural drivers of the regional differential, with the Iran-conflict crude price layered on top.

Shortages United States 2026 Forecast

US Gas Prices & the SPR Buffer — 2026 Three-Scenario Forecast

AAA national-average pump price plus the Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdown, side by side. Three modelled paths to December: deal-and-recovery, slow grind, or escalation plus winter heating. Today: $4.29/gallon; SPR 365 mbbl (lowest since April 2024).

Forecast Modelled June 3, 2026

US live status Disruption map State prices Airlines Timeline 2026 Forecast

US gas prices and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in 2026: observed to June 3, plus three forecasts to year-end

Two charts, same x-axis. The top chart is the AAA national-average pump price — what readers actually pay. The bottom chart is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — the federal emergency buffer that has been muffling crude price spikes from reaching the pump in full. Solid lines are observed Feb 28–Jun 3; dashed lines are three modelled scenarios for Jun–Dec, redrawn June 3 after the kinetic exchange that day (US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, Iran ballistic missiles toward Kuwait and Bahrain) shifted probabilities away from the deal track.

The two charts tell the same analytical story: as the SPR draws toward its ~250 mbbl operational floor, its capacity to absorb crude spikes weakens, and the pump-price trajectory steepens. The buffer is the reason US drivers have not seen $6+ gasoline so far; the buffer's depletion is the reason a $6+ scenario is on the table for late 2026.

December 2026 endpoint range — AAA national average

Today (Jun 3) — observed

$4.29

AAA national average. Up 44% from pre-conflict $2.98 (Feb 26); down from $4.55 peak May 7 on the May deal-optimism wave. State extremes: California $5.84, Oklahoma $3.27.

Scenario 1 — Deal-and-recovery

$3.75

US-Iran written MOU lands in coming weeks. Hormuz reopens late August; Gulf cargoes arrive Oct-Nov. SPR draw pauses ~350 mbbl, refill begins by November. National average eases below $4.00 by Q4.

Scenario 2 — Slow grind

$5.40

Diplomacy continues, no breakthrough. SPR draws to ~270 mbbl by year-end as Washington slows the pace to preserve flexibility. Pump climbs past the 2022 record ($5.00) in Q3 and stays there through winter.

Scenario 3 — Escalation + winter heating

$6.35

June 3 kinetic exchange escalates further. SPR approaches 250 mbbl operational floor in October — buffer effect weakens substantially. Winter heating-oil demand competes with gasoline production. Year-end ~27% above 2022 record.

Reference: 2022 historical peak

$5.00 / gal
June 2022, one-week record

The 2022 peak (Russia-Ukraine + post-COVID demand) is the natural comparison for "how high can it go." Scenario 1 stays comfortably below; Scenario 2 modestly exceeds; Scenario 3 substantially exceeds.

Reference: SPR operational floor

~250 mbbl
salt-dome hydraulic limit

Below ~250 mbbl, the four Gulf-coast salt-dome caverns cannot sustain maximum-rate pumping (brine displacement geometry). Washington would slow draws well before the floor. Currently 365 mbbl — ~115 mbbl above the floor.

Chart 1 — AAA national-average pump price ($/gallon)

The headline number. What drivers pay. Y-axis $3 to $7; the 2022 historical peak of $5.00 marked as a dashed reference; the pre-conflict baseline of $2.98 visible at the chart floor.

Chart 2 — Strategic Petroleum Reserve, million barrels

The buffer mechanic. As the SPR depletes toward its ~250 mbbl operational floor, its capacity to muffle crude spikes weakens. The lower the SPR sits, the steeper the corresponding pump-price scenario above.

FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

AAA pump price — observed

SPR inventory — observed

Scenario 1: Deal-and-recovery

Scenario 2: Slow grind

Scenario 3: Escalation + winter heating

Forecast model · GEF supply-chain analysis · pump prices from AAA daily averages · SPR levels from EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report · scenarios are illustrative, not guarantees · model built and refreshed June 3 after the kinetic US-Iran exchange that day global-energy-flow.com · June 3, 2026

Reading the chart. The two solid blue lines are observed: the top chart shows the AAA national-average pump price climbed from $2.98 on February 26 (pre-conflict) to a peak of $4.55 on May 7, then eased to $4.29 by June 3 as the late-May "preliminary deal" optimism cooled crude. The bottom chart shows the Strategic Petroleum Reserve falling from approximately 415 million barrels on February 28 to 365.1 million barrels on May 22 (latest published EIA figure) — a drawdown of more than 50 million barrels since the conflict began, and the lowest SPR level since April 2024. The three dashed paths bracket what happens between now and year-end. The key analytical move on this page is reading the two charts together: in Scenario 3, you can see the SPR cross into the buffer-exhaustion zone in October at the same moment the pump price in the chart above accelerates to its peak — that is the buffer mechanic in operation.

Scenario 1Deal-and-recovery — Hormuz reopens, SPR refill begins. A written US-Iran memorandum of understanding lands in the coming weeks along the lines Trump described to ABC News ("reachable over the next week"); Hormuz reopens by late August; Gulf cargoes arrive at US refineries in October-November. The SPR draw pauses around 350 mbbl in late summer as the urgent supply pressure eases; a slow refill begins by November. National-average pump price peaks at about $4.40 in early July (summer driving season demand), then eases steadily as cargoes arrive — falling below $4.00 by Q4 and ending December at approximately $3.75. The June 3 kinetic exchange (US strikes on Qeshm Island, Iran ballistic missiles toward Kuwait and Bahrain) has reduced the probability of this scenario relative to the May 30 framing, but it is not foreclosed — Trump's "MOU reachable" language continued on June 2 alongside the Treasury sanctions on Iran's Nobitex exchange.

Scenario 2Slow grind — diplomacy continues, no breakthrough. The most likely scenario at the moment. US-Iran negotiations continue but no written deal materializes; the strait stays effectively closed at ~5% of pre-war traffic; the SPR keeps drawing. Washington slows the drawdown pace in Q3 to preserve operational flexibility — knowing the buffer must last through winter heating season — and the SPR ends December at approximately 270 mbbl, still ~20 mbbl above the operational floor. As the SPR's price-muffling capacity declines, the national-average pump price climbs through the $5.00 mark (2022 record) in late July or early August and stays there through the autumn. December endpoint approximately $5.40, modestly above the 2022 historical peak. State-level differentials persist: California $7-plus, Oklahoma $4-plus.

Scenario 3Escalation plus winter heating — the SPR approaches its floor. The June 3 kinetic exchange escalates further; Iran follows through on the threat to extend closure to Bab el-Mandeb; the US imposes additional sanctions; broader Middle East shipping is disrupted. The SPR drawdown accelerates through Q3 as Washington holds the pace to maintain the buffer through the summer driving season — but mathematics catches up in October, when the inventory approaches 250 mbbl and salt-dome hydraulics force a sharp pace reduction. Buffer effect on pump prices weakens substantially. October-November also brings winter heating-oil demand, which competes directly with gasoline production at US refineries (refineries can flex output between products, but at a cost). National-average pump price climbs to ~$6.45 by November — about 27% above the 2022 record — and eases only slightly by December (~$6.35) as the calendar approaches a year-end seasonal demand dip. State extremes in this scenario reach California $8+, the cheapest states $5+. This is the path that would push the United States into the kind of policy conversations (export caps, refining mandates, demand-side measures) that have been absent so far.

SPR mechanicWhy the buffer is the right thing to watch. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not a price-setting tool, but it is the federal government's most direct lever on retail-gasoline price action. The four salt-dome caverns in Texas and Louisiana hold up to ~714 million barrels at design capacity; the operational floor — below which oil can still be drawn but not at full rate — sits around 250 million barrels (this is the hydraulic-limit number, set by the brine displacement geometry of the caverns themselves, not by policy). Above the floor, every barrel released into the crude market reduces the marginal price that gasoline refiners pay for feedstock, and that flows through to pump prices with a one-to-two-week lag. Below the floor, that mechanic breaks: the draw rate caps out at a fraction of what's needed to muffle a spike, and crude prices flow into pump prices more directly. The recent drawdown rate has been roughly 8–10 million barrels per week (the May 15 print showed a -9.9 mbbl single-week record); GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan noted on May 30 that the SPR is "days away" from levels last touched in August 1983. The May 22 print at 365.1 mbbl is the latest official figure; the EIA WPSR for week ending May 29 releases June 3.

State extremesWhat gas costs across the country today. Beneath the $4.29 national average sits a regional spread of more than $2.50/gallon, structured by state taxes, environmental specifications (California's CARB-spec gasoline costs more to refine), refining capacity, and pipeline access.

Most expensive (per AAA)

California$5.84

Hawaii$5.33

Washington$5.30

Nevada$4.86

Oregon$4.86

Least expensive (per AAA)

Oklahoma$3.27

Kansas$3.27

Iowa$3.31

Nebraska$3.38

Arkansas$3.39

The California–Oklahoma spread of $2.57/gallon is approximately 60% of the national average. In Scenario 3 this spread widens further — high-tax, CARB-spec states absorb a larger share of the price increase because their underlying refining cost structure is already stressed. For continuously updated state-level prices, see AAA's state gas-price averages.

MethodThis is a scenario forecast, not a prediction. The observed Feb–Jun pump-price line is built from AAA daily national averages; the observed SPR line is from EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Reports. The Jun–Dec branches are illustrative model paths, not guarantees; the real outcome will depend on the pace of any US-Iran diplomatic settlement, whether Iran follows through on its Bab el-Mandeb extension threat, the rate at which Washington draws the SPR through the summer driving season, refinery uptime, winter weather severity, and any policy interventions (export caps, refining mandates) that have not been used so far. Built and refreshed June 3 after the kinetic US-Iran exchange that day (US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island; Iran ballistic missiles toward Kuwait — two fell short — and Bahrain — three intercepted; IRGC claimed strikes on the US 5th Fleet HQ, denied by CENTCOM). Sources: AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (latest May 28 for week ending May 22), EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve historical inventory, US Department of Energy SPR Quick Facts, IEA Oil Market Report May 2026, Newsweek SPR coverage May 30 (GasBuddy Patrick De Haan analysis), Reuters / Investing.com / Fortune crude tape June 1-3, US CENTCOM statements June 3, Tasnim June 1. Per-disruption detail and the live US shortage map at global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-states/.

Related forecasts: the EU petrol & diesel availability forecast covers continental Europe (road-fuel-led stress, two scenarios) and the UK jet-fuel forecast tracks British aviation against the IEA 23-day threshold (three scenarios). See also the Strait of Hormuz status page and the live global shortage tracker.