Is the Strait of Hormuz open or closed right now?

As of October 8, 2026 (Day 222), the strait is CRITICAL. On 4 October Iran's negotiators said it stays closed until the US meets seven conditions based on the Islamabad memorandum. At least five tankers were struck between 1 and 6 October by "unknown projectiles" (UKMTO counts nine Hormuz incidents so far in October): the Kuwait-flagged VLCC Kazimah III (1 Oct, fire, crew safe), Panama-flagged Uhud (2-3 Oct, engine blackout), Dynacom's six-week-old Aframax Lipsi (4 Oct, engine room damage), an inbound vessel where a drone entered the funnel, and the Panama-flagged On Peace (6 Oct, 12 crew injured); no new strike was confirmed on 7-8 October. UKMTO also logged an IRGC order for an inbound tanker to turn back north of Khasab on 4 October, which the master obeyed. Trump rejected a renewed Iranian proposal around 1 October, and US officials signal airstrikes probable after the November midterms (Axios). Windward counted 119 commercial transits in the week to 30 September (37% dark), still roughly a fifth of the pre-war rate. Brent settled at $100.20 on Wednesday 7 October. GEF treats transit counts as a floor and official figures as an upper bound.

How much oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz?

Before the February 28, 2026 closure, approximately 20% of the world's oil and a large share of its liquefied natural gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz — roughly 21 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products. The strait is the only sea route out of the Persian Gulf, and there is no full-capacity alternative: a couple of pipelines (in Saudi Arabia and the UAE) can bypass a fraction of the volume, but most Gulf crude has nowhere else to go. That is what makes Hormuz the single most important oil chokepoint on Earth: closing it doesn't reroute a fifth of seaborne oil, it removes it.

What countries depend on the Strait of Hormuz?

The Persian Gulf producers whose oil exports transit the strait are Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, Iran, and Bahrain. On the receiving end, the most exposed importers are in Asia: China, India, Japan, and South Korea collectively take the majority of Hormuz crude. Singapore and South Korean refineries that supply Australia, Southeast Asia, and parts of Latin America are themselves significantly supplied by Hormuz crude, creating second-order exposure. The EU and the UK are less directly exposed to Hormuz crude (they rely more on North Sea, North Atlantic and Russian-replacement supply), but they are heavily exposed to the jet fuel and diesel that Asian refineries produce and that European airlines and freight depend on. The US is the least directly exposed but is affected through global crude pricing and indirectly through refined product trade.

When will the Strait of Hormuz reopen?

No date can be given with confidence. Reopening has been announced or expected several times in 2026 and each time faded: an April ceasefire, the 17 June interim memorandum (which expired on 17 August with no successor), and talks at Salalah in September. The current proposal is Iran's seven-day plan of 25 September, under which the blockade and oil sanctions would be lifted first and the strait reopened at the end of day seven, with nuclear talks to follow; the United States wants the nuclear file in the same package. Even after a deal, normal traffic would return gradually: war-risk insurance has to ease, stranded tankers have to clear, and Gulf producers have to restart shut-in output. GEF's test for reopening is several consecutive days of rising independent transit counts, easing war-risk premiums in London, and loaded Qatari LNG carriers leaving the Gulf. As of 26 September none of these is visible.

What is the alternative to the Strait of Hormuz?

There is no full-capacity alternative. Two pipelines can move some Gulf crude around the strait: Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline (Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea, up to about 7 million barrels a day at maximum) and the UAE's ADCOP pipeline (Habshan to Fujairah, about 1.5 million barrels a day). Together they cover well under half of pre-war Hormuz flow. Both have been attacked in 2026. The East-West line was halted for 11 days after drone strikes and restarted on 22 September, building toward about 4 million barrels a day, and Yanbu is loading at roughly half of pre-attack rates on GEF's last confirmed read (28 September). Lloyd's List reports Red Sea tanker loadings rising as Aramco ramps pipeline contingency, under continuing Houthi threat; war-risk cover remains about 3% of hull value. The Red Sea route from Yanbu must also pass Bab el-Mandeb, where the Houthis have attacked Saudi-linked shipping. That structural lack of alternatives is what makes Hormuz different from other chokepoints.

How is the Strait of Hormuz crisis affecting oil and gas prices?

Removing a large share of seaborne oil at once pushed crude sharply higher. Brent peaked around $126 in early May, fell into the $70s in late June on a short-lived interim deal, and climbed back above $100 in September as the conflict escalated to open naval exchanges and strikes on the Saudi bypass pipeline. Brent settled at $100.20 and WTI at $88.28 on Wednesday 7 October, after a volatile week with a $4.28 Thursday rally reversed by the G7 100 Mbbl reserve release. The shock has moved into refined products more than crude: US retail diesel set a record $6.5276 a gallon on 22 September while US crude stocks were building, because distillate stocks are about 13% below their five-year average. The US AAA regular average was $4.49 on 26 September against $2.98 before the war. The IEA reports cumulative supply losses exceeding one billion barrels, the largest oil-supply disruption in its records. Europe's gas market is exposed through Qatari LNG, which cannot leave the Gulf in volume; EU storage stood at 72.67% on 4 October.

Strait of Hormuz

Is the Strait of Hormuz Open? Status, Day Count and Live Transit Data

Live status of the world’s most important oil chokepoint, updated daily since 28 February 2026. Day 222: CRITICAL. Iran’s negotiators said on 4 October that the strait stays closed until the US meets seven conditions based on the Islamabad memorandum, and President Pezeshkian has called talks with Washington “meaningless”. At least five tankers were struck between 1 and 6 October by "unknown projectiles" (UKMTO counts nine Hormuz incidents in October so far): the Kuwait-flagged VLCC Kazimah III, the Panama-flagged Uhud, Dynacom's six-week-old Aframax Lipsi, an inbound vessel hit by a drone that entered the funnel and, on 6 October, the Panama-flagged On Peace with 12 crew injured; no new strike has been confirmed since. In parallel, President Trump rejected a renewed Iranian proposal around 1 October and US officials now signal airstrikes probable after the November midterms (Axios). On 2 October the G7 released 100 million barrels of diesel and crude through the IEA, and on 7 October the IEA agreed to speed up stock releases and prioritise diesel. Windward counted 119 commercial transits in the week to 30 September (37% dark). Independent flow estimates run 3.7–8m b/d against about 16.4m b/d implied by CENTCOM. Every transit count on this page is a floor, not a total — transfers off Oman run with transponders switched off — and every official figure is treated as an upper bound. Below: the full event-by-event crisis timeline, GEF’s own AIS chokepoint audit, transit counts and oil-price impact — every figure dated and sourced.

Hormuz Updated October 8, 2026

CRITICAL — Iran says the strait stays closed until the US meets seven conditions. On 4 October Parliament speaker Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Araghchi and spokesman Baghaei said Hormuz will not reopen until the US accepts seven conditions based on the Islamabad memorandum, and President Pezeshkian has called talks with Washington “meaningless”. At least five tankers were struck 1-6 October (Kazimah III, Uhud, Lipsi, an inbound vessel hit by a drone and, on 6 October, On Peace with 12 crew injured); UKMTO logged the IRGC ordering an inbound tanker to turn back north of Khasab on 4 October; the master complied. On 2 October the G7 released 100 million barrels of diesel and crude through the IEA. Brent settled $100.20 on Wednesday 7 October (-0.4%) and WTI $88.28, after the IEA agreed to speed up diesel-weighted stock releases and following Saudi Aramco cut its November Asia price to a six-year-low $5 discount. A reopening is verified by transit counts, not announcements.

Strait of Hormuz — key facts, 8 October 2026

Status: Critical. President Trump rejected a renewed Iranian proposal around 1 October; US officials signal airstrikes probable after the November midterms. At least five tankers struck 1-6 October.
Day count: Day 222 of the crisis, which began on 28 February 2026.
The numbers, explained: Windward: week ending 30 September 119 commercial transits (54 in, 65 out, 37% dark); 30 September alone 16 transits (6 in, 10 out, 6 dark). Attacks on 1-6 October interrupted the recovery. Tankertrackers.com: 3.7m b/d; Bloomberg: 6–8m b/d; CENTCOM’s claim implies about 16.4m b/d. Counts are a floor, official figures an upper bound.
Bypass route: Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline remains in restart. Lloyd’s List reports Red Sea tanker loadings rising as Aramco ramps pipeline contingency; GEF’s last confirmed throughput reading was ~3.5m b/d on 28 September, with Yanbu loading at roughly half of pre-attack rates. The Houthis keep targeting it intermittently; war-risk cover is about 3% of hull value.
Oil price: Brent $100.20 settled on Wednesday 7 October (−0.4% on the day, from $100.58 on Tuesday and $102.25 the previous Friday); WTI $88.28 (−1.3%). The Brent–WTI spread is about $11.9. The tape held near $100 even as tankers were struck, because Gulf exports excluding Iran recovered to about 81% of pre-war levels in September with about 40% bypassing the strait, while the IEA agreed to speed up diesel-weighted stock releases. Last week round-tripped: Thursday 1 October rallied $4.28 on China’s fuel-export suspension, then the G7 100 Mbbl release reversed it.
US inventories: EIA, week to 2 October: commercial crude −3.2m to 424.1m barrels against an expected build; distillate 105.1m barrels, about 13% below the five-year average; gasoline +0.3m to 204.7m. SPR 283.0m barrels, the lowest since 1982. Next release Wednesday 14 October.

Global Energy Flow has tracked this chokepoint daily since 28 February 2026. Figures are re-verified each day against named primary sources; the full event-by-event timeline appears below.

Days since closure 219 since Feb 28, 2026

Tanker traffic 3.7–8m b/d independent estimates (Tankertrackers, Bloomberg) · Windward: 119 transits in week to Sep 30 (37% dark) vs ~130/day pre-war

Brent crude $100.20 Wed Oct 7 settle · −0.4% day

Pre-war oil share ~20% of world seaborne oil

Seven months in, the Strait of Hormuz remains the binding constraint on the world oil system, and a week of diplomatic signals has not moved it. Iran shut the strait de facto on 28 February 2026. An April ceasefire, the 17 June interim MoU and talks at Salalah each raised hopes of a reopening that later faded; a second escalation cycle from July brought vessel strikes, a reimposed US blockade on Iranian shipping and competing toll claims over the waterway. Transit has since run on terms — through intermediaries, on preapproved routes and at charter rates reported above $500,000 a day — rather than freely. In the week to 23 September three things happened at once: Saudi Arabia restarted the East–West bypass pipeline after eleven days offline; a senior Iranian official offered to reopen the strait within seven days if the blockade were lifted; and Iran’s President, at the UN the following day, said the nation would not bow to threats and warned against freedom of navigation while sanctions persist. Brent fell five sessions on the first two and rose 3.86% on the third; on 24 September reports of a phased US–Iran deal explored through Qatar coincided with Houthi missiles aimed at Yanbu, the Red Sea end of the Saudi bypass, and Brent settled $106.60. On 25 September Iran’s Foreign Minister set out a seven-day plan — blockade and sanctions lifted first, the strait reopened on day seven — which Washington declined to call a breakthrough, and on 26 September President Trump said would not be acceptable; Brent settled $104.32 on Friday 25 September, $105.28 on Monday 28 September and $102.25 on Friday 2 October, after the rejection, the pipeline restart and the G7 release. The flow data did not follow either move: independent trackers put volumes at 3.7–8m b/d, roughly half of pre-war or less. GEF rates the strait CRITICAL and will change that rating on sustained transit counts, not statements.

Why the Strait of Hormuz matters

Hormuz is the narrow sea passage between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. Before the 2026 closure, roughly 20% of the world's oil and a large share of its liquefied natural gas passed through it — and crucially, there is no full-capacity alternative route out of the Gulf. A couple of pipelines (in Saudi Arabia and the UAE) can bypass a fraction of the volume, but most Gulf crude has nowhere else to go. That is what makes Hormuz the single most important oil chokepoint on Earth: closing it doesn't reroute a fifth of seaborne oil, it removes it.

The impact on oil prices and fuel supply

Removing that much supply at once pushed crude sharply higher. Brent and WTI have traded roughly 40-50% above their pre-war levels throughout the crisis, with Brent peaking around $126 in early May before easing on hopes of a deal. The shock did not stop at the oil price: it cascaded through global refining, aviation-fuel availability, retail gasoline, and national fuel reserves, producing fuel shortages and supply stress across dozens of countries and the largest single oil-supply disruption in IEA recorded history — cumulative losses now exceeding one billion barrels. This is the core idea the whole site tracks: a disruption at one node propagates through the entire energy system.

Is the strait open right now?

Today (October 8, 2026) marks Day 222. No — not in any normal sense. Windward counted 119 commercial transits in the week to 30 September (37% dark), with 16 on 30 September alone (6 in, 10 out, 6 dark). At least five tankers were then struck on 1-6 October, with no new strike confirmed on 7-8 October. Independent flow estimates are 3.7–8m b/d, against official US claims implying up to 16.4m b/d. The diplomacy has a concrete proposal and a concrete refusal: Iran’s seven-day plan of 25 September would lift the US blockade and oil sanctions and release frozen assets first, reopen the strait on day seven and leave nuclear talks until after; on 26 September President Trump said it would not be acceptable; on 28 September indirect talks resumed through Qatari mediators; around 1 October Trump rejected a renewed Iranian proposal, with US officials now signalling airstrikes probable after the November midterms (Axios); and on 4 October Iran’s negotiators said the strait stays closed until seven conditions based on the Islamabad memorandum are met. GEF’s AIS captures on 8 October show the Iranian coastal core at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm (MIR MAHNA, ATEELA 2, MARIVAN, CASPIA, BAVAN, HASNA, CHLOE, COBA, DAHAB), plus NIKA underway, with no satellite-only contact in the frame where the 1-6 October tanker strikes took place. What would change the answer: an agreed sequence, then several consecutive days of rising independent transit counts, war-risk insurance easing in London, and Qatari LNG carriers leaving the Gulf loaded. None is visible yet. GEF holds Hormuz at CRITICAL.

How the crisis unfolded

Feb 28Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping after US and Israeli strikes; the war begins.

Apr 8A short-lived two-week ceasefire allows limited safe passage; it later breaks down.

Apr 13The US adds a counter-blockade of Iranian ports — both Gulf maritime corridors are now shut.

May 16The IEA reports cumulative supply losses exceeding one billion barrels — the largest disruption in its records.

May 23-24A US-Iran deal to reopen the strait is described as "largely negotiated"; a handful of LNG tankers transit.

May 26Five supertankers clear the strait — the first non-Iranian VLCC transits since the closure (Eagle Verona, Universal Winner, Eagle Veracruz, Nissos Keros + 1). Bloomberg: "beginnings of a recalibration."

May 27-28Brent settles $96.67 (5-week low) / WTI breaks below $90 to $88.68 on rising deal odds; White House dismisses Iran's leaked draft deal as "a complete fabrication"; framework remains unsigned.

Jun 1Deal track reverses: Iran reportedly suspends US messaging channel (Tasnim) after Israeli strikes in Lebanon, signals weighing full closure of both Hormuz AND Bab el-Mandeb. Crude rebounds — Brent +5% intraday Mon, settles ~$94.99.

Jun 3Standoff turns kinetic: US CENTCOM confirms strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island (IRGC "missile city" in the strait). Iran ballistic missiles — 2 toward Kuwait fall short, 3 toward Bahrain intercepted. IRGC claims 5th Fleet HQ strikes; CENTCOM: "FALSE." 6th vessel disabled under US blockade. Brent rebounds toward $98, third straight session of gains.

Jun 5-7Crude breaks down on demand-side + de-escalation push: Brent -2.3% to $93.05 Fri close, WTI to $90.30. Trump publicly criticises Israeli Beirut strikes, urges Netanyahu to stand down, calls Tehran to resume negotiations. OPEC+ approves third monthly output increase (+188 kbpd for July) at Jun 5 JMMC. Brief explosion at Oman's Mina Al Fahal export terminal — operations resumed.

Jun 8Day 100 milestone — longer than every post-WWII chokepoint closure on record. Strait still effectively closed; IEA cumulative supply losses exceed 1 billion barrels.

Jun 9Day 101 — direct US-Iran kinetic cycle reopens. Iran shoots down US Army Apache helicopter patrolling the strait (Trump confirms two pilots safe). US CENTCOM "self-defense strikes" on Iranian ports and islands in response that evening. Energy Sec Wright (Atlantic Council): Hormuz traffic "rising very meaningfully" — Brent settles −3.4% to $91.11, WTI −6.1% to $88.20.

Jun 10Day 102 — US strikes ~20 targets; Iran hits Gulf US bases. US fires 49 Tomahawks at ~20 targets, some within 40 miles of Tehran (Trump, Fox News), in retaliation for the Apache downing. Iran fires drones + ballistic missiles at US facilities in Kuwait (Ali Al-Salem and Ahmad al-Jaber air bases), Bahrain (Sheikh Issa air base / 5th Fleet) and Jordan (Azraq) — CENTCOM says all failed to hit intended targets, but Kuwaiti authorities confirm 1 killed and 60+ injured. Trump claims US "secretly moved" 200 ships + 100M+ barrels through Hormuz; IMF PortWatch shows 2 transits Jun 7 vs 94/day baseline. EIA WPSR: crude −7.23M w/e Jun 5, 7th straight draw. Brent settles $93.10 (+2.2%).

Jun 11Day 103 — IRGC formally declares the strait closed. "Closed to all vessels, including oil tankers and commercial ships... any vessel attempting to transit will be targeted" (IRGC Telegram). CENTCOM disputes: "Commercial ships are continuing to transit." Second-day US strikes hit radar, air-defense and ground-control sites at Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, Jask and Sirik; CENTCOM declares strikes "completed," lifting hopes talks could resume. Brent trades $94.58–95.45 intraday before paring to ~$94; WTI ~$92.

Jun 12Day 104 — deal signing possible this weekend. Trump calls off Thursday-night strikes, declares "a great settlement of the war with Iran... subject to finalization of documents"; says signing could come this weekend, likely in Europe. Fars (semi-official): Tehran likely to accept. Earlier in the week Trump threatened to "take" Kharg Island. Brent settles $90.38 Thu (−2.9%), trades ~$89 Fri — 2-month low; WTI $87.71 → ~$86. EIA June STEO: global demand now forecast to FALL 1.1 mb/d in 2026. Caveat: mine clearance + idled fields + repairs = months to normal flow even if signed.

Jun 13Day 105 — deal at the one-yard line; open-vs-closed contested. Mediator Pakistan reports a "final, agreed-upon text"; Bessent says signing could come "this weekend or Monday" (80% per a US official, Vance to attend). But the sides describe different deals — US: full nuclear dismantlement; Iranian media (Mehr 14-pt draft): "no new nuclear commitments." Friday night Iran launched multiple one-way drones at commercial ships; CENTCOM downed all, says corridor "remains open for transit"; Iran claimed it stopped a tanker. Brent $87.33 Fri settle (−3.4%), 8-week low; WTI $84.88.

Jun 14Day 106 — Trump says the deal signs today; Iran has not committed. Trump posts that the deal "is scheduled to get signed tomorrow [today], and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL," timing the signing to his birthday. Pakistan readies an electronic signing within 24 hours. But Iran's FM spokesman Baqaei calls a signing "unlikely" today, citing "the hesitancy of the other side." ClearView Energy: even after a signature, physical reopening takes "weeks to months," full normalization "multiple quarters to years." GEF Jun 12-14 AIS audit: Hormuz still ~18 vessels, domestic-flag only.

Jun 15Day 107 — Trump declares the deal "complete" and orders the blockade lifted; strait stays shut. Over the weekend Trump posts that "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete," authorizing the "toll-free opening" of the Strait and the "immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade" — then adds the opening comes "upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal." Pakistan's PM Sharif and Iran's Deputy FM Gharibabadi both confirm the deal is reached and the MOU text finalized; the formal electronic signing is set for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland, with 60 days of follow-on nuclear talks. The naval blockade is being stood down, but the strait remains physically closed pending the signing and mine-clearing; GEF AIS still shows domestic-flag traffic only. Full commercial flow remains weeks out — the de-escalation is real on paper, unproven on the water.

Jun 17Day 109 — the deal is SIGNED. Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian sign the 14-point interim MOU on Wednesday night: the Strait of Hormuz reopens toll-free for at least 60 days, the US ends its naval blockade (with until July 19 to fully lift it), sanctions on Iranian oil are waived, and Iran is to clear all mines within 30 days. The fate of Iran's nuclear program — enrichment, stockpile, missiles — is left to 60 days of follow-on talks. Iranian hardliners and Israel both signal reservations.

Jun 18Day 110 — blockade lifted, first transits. The US lifts the Hormuz blockade and the first commercial vessels move — at least seven transit Thursday (MarineTraffic via CNN), including the first Saudi-owned tankers since February; ~10 million barrels are observed transiting or positioned near the strait. Iran designates the central deep-water channel a mine-danger zone, so traffic uses the mine-free northern (Iranian-waters) and southern (Omani-waters) coastal routes, with JMIC advising vessels hug the Oman coast. Brent settles $79.55.

Jun 19Day 111 — reopening turns stop-start; Switzerland talks cancelled. After Thursday's surge, Friday-morning outbound flows slow — no vessels seen leaving the Gulf — and Tehran floats a mandatory transit-insurance charge (currently free), reasserting control. The planned US-Iran nuclear talks in Switzerland are cancelled, denting confidence in the deal's durability; southern-Lebanon fighting continues. The GEF Jun 15/17/19 AIS audit shows the turn: Hormuz still ~20-25 vessels and domestic-dominated, but the first non-domestic names (DESH VAIBHAV, NIKI, ATEELA) now appear. Brent steadies near $80 (week −8.5%).

Jun 20Day 112 — reopening continues into the weekend; operators stay cautious. With oil markets closed for the weekend, attention turns to the implementation clock: Iran is to clear all mines within 30 days under the MOU, though US officials estimate full clearance could take up to six months, and the US has until July 19 to fully lift its port blockade. Recent transits run at roughly two dozen vessels a day versus 100+ pre-war, and major operators stay wary — Mitsui OSK Lines says it will not resume transits until the strait is proven safe in practice. The strait is reopening, but normal throughput is still weeks away.

Jun 21Day 113 — contested re-closure. Iran's military command and the IRGC re-declare the strait closed (announced Saturday Jun 20), warning vessels off and citing Israel's continued Lebanon strikes (which killed 16+ Saturday) and US non-implementation of the deal's first clause. The US disputes it: CENTCOM says Iran does not control the strait and that 55 merchant ships and 17+ million barrels transited Saturday, and Iran's own foreign ministry tells Tasnim shipping is "operating normally." The GEF Jun 20/21 AIS audit backs the on-the-water read — ~30 vessels in-frame both mornings with the foreign-flag tonnage fully turning over (movement, not a sealed strait). Bürgenstock quadrilateral talks open Sunday in Switzerland (US, Iran, Pakistan, Qatar); Day 1 produces agreement in principle on a Hormuz de-confliction channel. Sunday-evening futures open flat/soft, confirming the market reads the IRGC re-declaration as posturing.

Jun 22Day 114 — Bürgenstock Day 2; de-confliction channel agreed; IRGC re-declaration contested. Talks extend to a second day, with Qatar and Pakistan citing "encouraging progress." The stumbling block: President Pezeshkian says Iran will "never back down from the right to enrich uranium" — a direct conflict with US demands; Trump threatens "hit very hard again" if Hezbollah doesn't stand down. The IRGC re-declaration (Jun 20) remains contested: CENTCOM (Capt. Hawkins): "Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic continues to flow." Iran's own MFA: shipping "operating normally." GEF AIS Jun 22: ~30 vessels in-frame, names turning over. Brent Mon intraday ~$79 (−1.9% from $80.59 Fri close) — no gap-up, confirming market treats re-declaration as posturing. Board: ELEVATED (recovery-fragile).

Jun 23Day 115 — Bürgenstock talks concluded; de-confliction channel operative; Brent $78.2 (Mon Jun 22 settle, −3.0%; war premium nearly fully unwound). The Bürgenstock quadrilateral process (US-Iran, Pakistan, Qatar) concluded with the Hormuz de-confliction channel as the principal agreed deliverable. The uranium enrichment impasse — Pezeshkian: Iran will "never back down from the right to enrich" — remains unresolved and is the variable that matters most for the next 30 days. IRGC re-declaration (Jun 20) continues to be contested: CENTCOM + AIS confirm traffic still flowing; Iran MFA maintains shipping "operating normally." Central channel still mined (~80 mines, ~40-50 days to clear). Bolivia re-escalated to active shortage (state of emergency Jun 20; military deployed; 14 dead; 50 days of blockades in La Paz/El Alto/Cochabamba). Australia: Geelong RCCU restarted Jun 23 at >90% capacity (alkylation unit offline into 2027). Board: ELEVATED (recovery-fragile).

Jun 24Day 116 — IMO evacuation begins; Denmark joins reopening mission; crude at 3.5-month low. The IMO starts implementing a plan to evacuate the 11,000+ seafarers stranded in the Gulf since Feb 28, coordinated with Iran, Oman and the US; with the central channel mined, ships exit north or south of the old traffic-separation scheme. Denmark announces it will join the international mission to reopen the strait. Transit stays volatile under the contested re-closure — ~39 vessels Monday Jun 23 (Kpler) after ~93 over the Jun 19-21 weekend, still far below the 100+/day pre-war norm. Crude keeps falling: Brent ~$77 Tue Jun 23 settle, easing to ~$76.4 Wed (3.5-month low); WTI ~$73.2 (−0.88%). The driver has flipped to supply — dollar at a 13-month high, reopened-Hormuz flow, and a US 60-day license letting Iran sell oil. Board: ELEVATED (recovery-fragile).

Jun 25Day 117 — war premium fully unwinds, then an Oman strike snaps it back and the IMO pauses evacuation. Brent touched the pre-war $72.44 intraday (at/below the Feb-27 close of $72.48) with the prompt spread in bearish contango and WTI under $70 — the premium fully gone — before a cargo vessel was struck by a projectile off Oman (US officials: Iran fired on it) and crude reversed up, Brent settling $75.26 (+2.1%) and WTI $71.92 (+2%). The IMO PAUSED its seafarer-evacuation framework pending safety guarantees; the IRGC insisted transit is safe only on Iran-designated routes and turned back ships on the Omani corridor. Underlying flow still built — Kpler logged 70 crossings Jun 24 (+105% d/d, 53 commercial). Board: ELEVATED (recovery-fragile).

Jun 26Day 118 — US strikes Iran in response to Ever Lovely; Brent settles $73.52 (intraday $71.94 lowest since Feb 27). Late Friday: US strikes Iranian “surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air defense sites, drone storage facilities, and minelayer capabilities” in retaliation for the Jun 25 Ever Lovely strike (CENTCOM/NPR/CBS). Brent Fri close $73.52 (Investing.com CFD; intraday low $71.94 — lowest since Feb 27 the war’s start). WTI $70.24 (intraday $68.86, lowest since Feb 2026). Brent 10%+ weekly drop, the largest in a month — war premium fully unwound on supply-recovery read: Saudi Arabia loading Ras Tanura, Persian Gulf exports ~75% of pre-war. Goldman cut Q4 Brent forecast to $80 from $90.

Jun 27Day 119 — M/T Kiku struck (2M+ bbl Qatari oil); US strikes 10 Iranian targets; UKMTO MODERATE → SUBSTANTIAL. Saturday 04:30 ET: Iranian one-way drone hits Panama-flag M/T KIKU near Hormuz — 2M+ bbl Qatari oil bound Fujairah, bridge damage, crew safe (UKMTO/CENTCOM/Fox Business). UKMTO raises Hormuz threat MODERATE → SUBSTANTIAL (“mariners advised of mines, expect naval presence as clearance operations continue”). Saturday evening: US strikes 10 Iranian military targets in and near the strait. Trump (Truth Social): “AGAIN! There may come a point... the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist!” JMIC (US Navy) widened the Omani route — direct challenge to Iran’s traffic control. Iran’s IRGC Navy: “Vessel traffic outside [Iran-declared] routes is extremely dangerous and prohibited.” Three foreign tankers attempted unauthorized passage Friday and were rerouted toward the Persian Gulf.

Jun 28Day 120 — Iran strikes US bases in Kuwait + Bahrain; 1 Qatari killed; both sides halt “for now”; Doha talks open today. IRGC launched ballistic missiles and drones at US Ali Al Salem AB (Kuwait) and US 5th Fleet Port Salman (Bahrain) early Sunday. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Egypt all condemned. ONE QATARI CITIZEN KILLED by shrapnel from “military operations witnessed in the region” (Qatar MOI). By Sunday evening both sides agreed to halt strikes “for now” — US official to Axios: “vessels can move freely.” Talks moved from Switzerland to Doha for Tuesday June 30; focus shifted from nuclear to Hormuz shipping security. MoU under strain but neither collapsed nor superseded.

Jun 29Day 121 — strikes paused; GEF six-frame AIS audit confirms physical flow held; crude recovering modestly. Both sides hold. GEF AIS audit covering Friday Jun 26 08:42 → Monday Jun 29 08:12 (6 frames over ~71.5 hours): Hormuz chokepoint held 26-32 vessels per frame with full day-over-day name turnover. Named commercial tonnage including BW LOYALTY, KUWAIT PROSPERITY, CAMEROON PROSPERITY, TOGO PROSPERITY, ROTTERDAM ENERGY, NORD VICTOR, BITUMEN STAR, IMPERIOUS, NEW STAR, and notably Chinese-flag SHEN ZHOU continued transiting through and across the strike weekend. Monday underway ratio (~11 of 30) ticked up vs the weekend baseline (~7-9) — normal business-day rhythm. Mon open: WTI back to ~$70, Brent ~$73 — modest recovery, not panic. Board: ELEVATED, recovery-fragile. Doha Tuesday is the next critical hinge.

Jun 30Day 122 — Doha session opens; AIS Tue morning shows composition shift toward Western/Asian commercial tonnage; crude recovers modestly. Brent Mon Jun 29 close $72.60 (−1.3% from Fri $73.52); WTI ~$69.7 (TradingEconomics: “rebounding slightly from a four-month low”). Tue Jun 30 morning open: Brent ~$73.6, WTI ~$69.9 — modest recovery on the kinetic-pause-plus-Doha-opening read. Reuters Jun 29: “Iranian and U.S. technical teams working” in Doha; agenda shifted from nuclear to Hormuz shipping security. GEF added a two-frame Tue read (08:19 local, ~71 hours after the Fri baseline): chokepoint population holds in the 26-32 band, but composition shifts from heavy Iran-domestic concentration on Mon evening → MORE NAMED WESTERN/ASIAN COMMERCIAL TONNAGE in the central transit corridor on Tue morning (Japanese Aframax KOHZAN MARU V, Singapore-based Navig8 Group product tankers NAVIG8 PRECISION + NAVIG8 WOLF, foreign-flag commercial ECUADOR PROSPERITY, MERCURY HOPE; plus BW LOYALTY persistent across ALL seven frames Fri-Tue — a single vessel loitering the chokepoint through the entire kinetic window with no operator withdrawal). The Tue-morning Navig8 + Kohzan Maru V appearance is the strongest single signal of operator-confidence rebuild we’ve read since the weekend cycle began. UKMTO threat level remains SUBSTANTIAL. ~600 ships / 11,000 sailors still stranded; IMO evacuation still paused pending Doha outcome. Board: ELEVATED, recovery-fragile, HOLDING. Doha is today’s hinge.

Jul 1Day 123 — Doha wraps without a direct US-Iran meeting, but a coordination center is established; physical flow strengthens; Q2 closes with the worst quarterly decline since 2020. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry confirmed Tuesday that Witkoff and Kushner met only with Qatari mediators — “very positive conversations with regional leaders” — not with Iranian officials directly. Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, said Tehran will not enter further negotiations with the US until the MoU’s terms are implemented. But concrete deliverables emerged from the session: a US-Iran military coordination center was established in Doha to manage disputes and de-escalate tensions; Oman delivered a proposal on Hormuz administration; a Wednesday Iran-Qatar bilateral session covers MoU implementation and the release of $6bn in frozen Iranian assets. Iran is hardening its specific positions — no transit fees for 60 days, but reserving the right to introduce charges afterward (opposed by the US, EU and Gulf states) — and wants to co-regulate the strait with Oman, or unilaterally if Oman declines. Physical flow strengthened despite the diplomatic friction: Windward counted 42 transits Sunday (28 inbound, 14 outbound) including a five-vessel southern-corridor convoy near the Omani coast with a very-large crude tanker entering the Gulf for the first time since anchoring in February; Kpler counted 40 Monday; JMIC’s security report says commercial traffic “remained steady over the last 48 hours.” UKMTO threat level stays SUBSTANTIAL. GEF’s two-frame audit (Tue 23:02 → Wed 07:58 local) shows the chokepoint holding 26-32 vessels for a 5th consecutive day: BW LOYALTY persistent across eight consecutive frames since Friday, BW Group now showing a second vessel (BOW VICTORY), Union Maritime’s “Prosperity” fleet expanding to a sixth named vessel (FINLAND PROSPERITY), and UAE-flag AL BATEEN adding regional-operator confirmation. Brent Tue Jun 30 closed ~$73, capping a second quarter that recorded its worst quarterly decline since 2020 — Brent and WTI both down roughly 30% on the quarter. Board: ELEVATED, recovery-advancing with process friction — the AIS strengthening and coordination-center establishment support softening from “recovery-fragile,” but Iran’s preconditions on further talks and the post-60-day fee reservation keep a friction qualifier in place.

Jul 3Day 125 — transit count climbs to 43 (Jul 1); barrel flow already near pre-war even as vessel count lags; talks paused for Khamenei funeral. Independent AIS analytics (Windward Maritime Intelligence, switching source from GEF's own screenshot audit this cycle) puts Jul 1 Hormuz transits at 43 total (24 inbound, 19 outbound) — up from 41 the prior day (Jun 30-Jul 1: 24 in, 17 out) — against a pre-war baseline widely cited at 84-140/day, so throughput remains roughly a third to half of normal. Inbound traffic Jul 1 was tanker-dominated (12 of 24) on a northern-corridor majority (13 of 24); 3 inbound and 1 outbound transited dark (no AIS). A sanctioned crude tanker moved outbound with an estimated 1.99M barrels (~$135M) from Kharg Island bound for China; a separately sanctioned tanker with a documented dark-activity history transited inbound; a foreign-flagged vessel ran aground near Larak Island after deviating from Iran’s designated route (unresolved). Barrel volume is recovering faster than vessel count: UAE exports are back to ~3.9M bpd (pre-war level) and Saudi to ~90% of pre-war, pushing combined Hormuz flows above 10M bpd per US officials — implying larger per-vessel loads rather than full traffic normalization. Crude has fully unwound the war premium: Brent settled $70.57 Thu Jul 2 (−0.83%), WTI $67.47 (−0.95%), both the lowest since Feb 27 (pre-war). The next round of Doha talks (Kushner/Witkoff) is paused for the funeral of former Supreme Leader Khamenei, beginning Jul 4; Iran continues to press for maritime administrative control of the strait as a condition of full normalization — the live, unresolved friction point. Board: WATCH, recovery continuing but incomplete.

Jul 4Day 126 — Khamenei's public funeral opens in Tehran; GEF's own 6-frame AIS audit corroborates Windward and a third independent source, Marisks. Extending GEF's operator screenshot audit to six frames (Jul 1 22:51 through Jul 4 07:04, ~56 hours) holds Hormuz in-frame counts in a stable 33-42 vessel band. The persistent “loitering core” narrows on the newest frame: five vessels (ATARAKTOS, BARIN 313, COBA, GAS RGA, MARIVAN) held across the first five frames, but ATARAKTOS and GAS RGA finally departed by Jul 4 — only BARIN 313, COBA and MARIVAN remain present in every frame across the full window. BW LOYALTY, persistent across 8+ frames through Jul 1, has not reappeared since. Corroboration is now three-way: Windward's Jul 1 total-transit count (43, up from 41 the prior day), Marisks' weekly count via CNN (335 transits last week, ~48/day average, similar pace this week, up to 215 logged by end of Jul 3), and GEF's own in-frame counts (33-42) all agree on the same picture — roughly a third to half of the widely-cited 84-140/day pre-war baseline. Barrel volume continues to outpace vessel-count recovery: UAE exports back to ~3.9M bpd (pre-war level), Saudi ~90% of pre-war, combined Hormuz flows above 10M bpd. Crude holds at its lowest since Feb 27 pre-war (Brent $70.57, WTI $67.47, Thu Jul 2 close — no new settlement over the Jul 4 holiday weekend). The dominant story today: Khamenei's public funeral opened this morning at Tehran's Imam Khomeini Mosalla for a 24-hour farewell ceremony, the first stage of a 6-day, multi-city, two-country ceremony (Tehran, Qom, Mashhad, Najaf, Karbala) expected to draw 15-20 million mourners — the largest state funeral in Iran's history. The next round of Doha talks (Kushner/Witkoff) stays paused through at least Jul 9; Iran continues to press for maritime administrative control of the strait as a condition of full normalization. Board: WATCH, recovery continuing but incomplete.

Jul 5Day 127 — a 7-frame, 82-hour audit confirms a genuine 3-vessel loitering core; the Larak Island grounding is identified; France and the UK offer a naval mission, and Iran warns them off. Extending GEF's operator screenshot audit to seven frames (Jul 1 22:51 through Jul 5 09:11, ~82 hours) confirms BARIN 313, COBA and MARIVAN present in every single frame — a genuine multi-day loitering signature. ATARAKTOS and GAS RGA, which had dropped out of the sixth frame, reappeared in the seventh, correcting the prior update's framing: that was a temporary cycle-out, not a permanent departure. In-frame counts continue to hold in the established 33-42 band. TankerTrackers has identified the foreign-flagged vessel that ran aground near Larak Island (first reported Jul 1) as the ARISTA (IMO 9348493, Comoros-flagged), part of Iran's sanctioned Shamkhani network, under US OFAC sanctions since last summer — reportedly stuck in the same spot for some time. A new diplomatic friction point has emerged: France and the UK have offered to deploy a multinational naval mission supporting freedom of navigation through the strait (announced Jul 3); Iran warned both countries on Jul 4 against any military movement in Hormuz waters. Iran separately warned vessels (Jul 2) to stick to Tehran-designated transit routes, after a growing number began using a route closer to the Omani coast that reduces Iran's practical leverage over the chokepoint. On the unresolved tolls question, Doha reporting indicates Iran intends to introduce transit tolls in mid-August, once the 60-day free-transit window from the Jun 17 MoU expires — a position the US opposes (Vice President Vance: "not going to end in a place where the Iranians are collecting tolls"). All talks remain paused for Khamenei's funeral, which runs through Jul 9 with burial at Mashhad; Tehran's airspace closes entirely on Monday, Jul 6, for the funeral procession. Crude holds at its lowest since Feb 27 pre-war (Brent $70.57, WTI $67.47, Thu Jul 2 close — no new settlement over the holiday weekend). Board: WATCH, recovery continuing but incomplete, with a live routing/tolls dispute still unresolved.

Jul 6Day 128 — an 8-frame, 108-hour audit reconfirms the persistent core; a weekend of unexplained vessel U-turns normalizes; OPEC+ adds to the price slide. Extending GEF's operator screenshot audit to eight frames (Jul 1 22:51 through Jul 6 08:03, ~108 hours) reconfirms BARIN 313, COBA and MARIVAN present in every single frame — an extremely robust persistent-core signature at this point in the audit. Separately, TradingEconomics reported that several vessels made unexplained U-turns and detours along the strait over the weekend (Saturday, Jul 4), before traffic showed signs of normalizing again by Sunday (Jul 5) — an anomaly that remains unexplained but did not develop into a reversal of the broader recovery trend. On the price side, OPEC+ has agreed to a further increase in production targets, adding supply-side pressure that contributed to crude extending its slide into Monday: Brent traded around $71.9 and WTI around $68.3, both continuing multi-month lows, while US gasoline held at $2.91 a gallon, near its lowest level in more than three months. Iran's cumulative crude shipments have now exceeded 40 million barrels since the US ended its naval blockade, according to a US official, and combined Hormuz oil flows remain above 10 million barrels per day. All talks remain paused for the funeral of former Supreme Leader Khamenei, now in its third day of a six-day, multi-city ceremony running through Jul 9; Tehran's airspace closed entirely today for the funeral procession. The France/UK naval-mission offer and Iran's warning against it, along with Iran's signaled mid-August toll plans, remain unresolved diplomatic frictions. Board: WATCH, recovery continuing but incomplete, with the weekend anomaly and the routing/tolls dispute both still open questions.

Jul 7Day 129 — a 9-frame, 133-hour audit remains among the most robust of the cycle; Russia's fuel crisis is now near-nationwide per a fresh CNN analysis. Extending GEF's operator screenshot audit to nine frames (Jul 1 22:51 through Jul 7 07:47, ~133 hours, 5.5 days) reconfirms BARIN 313, COBA and MARIVAN present in every single frame. OPEC+ agreed a further output increase (188 kb/d for August, agreed Jul 5), adding to supply-side price pressure alongside the Hormuz recovery itself; Saudi Arabia separately cut its August Asia selling price to a discount to the Oman/Dubai benchmark, the first such move since the 2020/2015 price wars. Crude held near multi-month lows: Brent traded around $72.1 and WTI around $68.7. Separately, a CNN analysis published and updated Jul 6 found gasoline shortages or reported disruptions now affecting almost all of Russia's 83 regions, with more than 50 officially confirmed and unofficial reports of disruption in nearly all the rest — a broader framing than any single prior region-count, though not necessarily a higher number than the existing 56-region tally. At least three regions, including Irkutsk and Transbaikal, have declared a "state of heightened alert." Russia has begun importing gasoline from Kazakhstan and Belarus to ease the shortages; Putin described the situation as "not critical" and "temporary" this week while acknowledging ongoing queues. This remains a story entirely independent of Hormuz, deepening on its own timeline regardless of the strait's recovery. All talks remain paused for Khamenei's funeral, now in its fourth day of six, running through Jul 9. Board: WATCH, recovery continuing but incomplete.

Jul 8Day 130 — three vessels struck near Oman; the Qatari LNG carrier Al Rekayyat catches fire; the recovery narrative this timeline tracked all week is interrupted. In the early hours of Tuesday, Jul 7, the Qatari state-owned LNG carrier Al Rekayyat (Nakilat, fully laden, having loaded at Ras Laffan) was struck near its engine room roughly 8 nautical miles east of Limah, Oman — a fire broke out and the crew evacuated; maritime security sources told Reuters the vessel remains at risk of further detonation given its LNG cargo. Separately, the Saudi-owned crude tanker Wedyan (319,990 dwt) was struck while outbound near the Omani coast, and a third vessel was hit by a drone with reported minor structural damage. Qatar's Foreign Ministry formally condemned the Al Rekayyat attack and holds Iran "completely legally accountable"; Iranian state television claimed the vessels had been warned to use Iran's designated route near Larak Island and were sailing without authorization — the same justification pattern used in the Jun 25-28 Ever Lovely/Kiku strikes. GEF's own AIS audit had tracked a stable 33-42 in-frame band across nine frames through Jul 7 morning; real transit data confirms a decline was already underway even before Tuesday's strikes — MarineTraffic counted 43 transits Jul 3, 34 Jul 4, and just 31 Jul 5, and Windward reports volume dropped further after the attacks. Two convoys totaling 12 commercial ships are now gathered in Oman, apparently awaiting conditions to depart via the southern corridor. Of the 25 ships that transited Monday, only 3 used the Oman route with transponders active despite naval forces reiterating its availability. Crude reacted immediately after weeks of decline: Brent touched ~$73, WTI ~$69.5. All formal talks remain suspended for Khamenei's funeral, with burial scheduled for Jul 9 in Mashhad; Qatar says the next Doha session will be scheduled "as soon as possible" after the ceremonies conclude. Board: holding WATCH per the precedent set by the Jun 25-28 exchange (real strikes without a confirmed flow break), but direction reverts to WORSENING this week — the routing dispute has produced real damage incidents again, not just rhetoric.

Jul 9Day 131 — Trump declares the ceasefire "over"; a second night of US strikes; Iran retaliates against US-linked bases in Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait. Speaking from the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump said the exchange of attacks meant the ceasefire was "over," threatening a renewed naval blockade, strikes on Iran's electricity and water infrastructure (which international law experts say would constitute a war crime), and potentially "taking over" Kharg Island — the terminal handling roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports. That night, CENTCOM struck Iranshahr (a firefighter killed), Bandar Abbas, Konarak, Chabahar, Bushehr and Aq Qala — the second of what became three consecutive nights of strikes. Iran's parliamentary speaker and chief negotiator Qalibaf responded defiantly: "the era of bullying and extortion is over... we don't fold," and separately warned the strait "would only remain open under Iranian arrangements." Overnight into Jul 9, IRGC launched 10 ballistic missiles at a US-linked base in Jordan (Al-Azraq) after Jordan's military intercepted 8 incoming Iranian missiles, and separately struck US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. Real transit data began showing the scale of the disruption: Kpler counted strait crossings falling to just 7 ships early Tuesday morning, down from 25 the previous Monday. Gulf-loading tanker rates jumped toward $300,000/day, up from under $200,000/day the prior week. Board: escalating toward CRITICAL as the concrete-consequence and transit-count evidence accumulates.

Jul 10Day 132 — a third night of US strikes; Hormuz formally escalated to CRITICAL, anchored to GEF's own published transit threshold; Khamenei finally laid to rest, ending the funeral period. A third round of US strikes hit Iran overnight, aimed at further degrading its ability to threaten shipping. GEF is escalating the Hormuz board rating from ELEVATED to CRITICAL today — not on rhetoric alone, but because Kpler's confirmed transit collapse (7 ships versus a 25-40/day recent pace) falls at or below the site's own published critical threshold for Hormuz transits (under 40 vessels/day, "effective closure, supply chain breaks"), combined with the concrete-consequence test being clearly met: a real fatality, real strikes on three countries' territory, reinstated US sanctions on Iranian oil, and a ceasefire explicitly declared dead by the US President. Notably, crude price has NOT caught up to this physical severity — Brent/WTI remain in the "low" band per GEF's own thresholds (critical begins at $120+ Brent) despite a volatile week of trading disputed across sources. GEF's own operator AIS audit now spans 14 frames over roughly 8.5 days (Jul 1 22:51 – Jul 10): only the vessel COBA has been present in literally every frame; BARIN 313 and MARIVAN, previously described as part of a "3-vessel persistent core," each had real gaps once the window extended — a correction to earlier reporting this week, not a new finding to hide. Separately, and unrelated to the Hormuz-specific security question: Khamenei was laid to rest at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad in the early hours of today, concluding the funeral period that had paused all formal US-Iran talks. A US official told Fox News technical talks continue despite the MoU violations; Trump said Iran reached out seeking a new deal but was noncommittal. Board: CRITICAL, WORSENING — the most severe deterioration since the war's initial phase.

Jul 11-14Day 133-136 — US blockade reinstated, a new 20% US transit toll announced, UAE's own tankers struck, Kpler transits collapse further to 14/day; GEF's own 18-frame persistent-vessel streak finally breaks. Strikes did not pause for the funeral as suggested; a fresh round hit Iran Jul 11-13. Jul 12: IRGC struck two AIS-dark supertankers on an "unauthorised" route (Mehr News claim) and a Cyprus-flagged container ship, one Indian crew member still missing. Jul 13: UAE's ADNOC confirmed two of its OWN tankers were struck by projectiles in Omani territorial waters — one mariner killed, several injured — a first-party disclosure. CENTCOM launched a third consecutive night of strikes; Iran's IRGC hit a US-linked base in Jordan (10 missiles, 8 intercepted per Jordan's own statement) and struck sites in Bahrain and Kuwait. Trump, from the NATO summit: the MoU is "over," floating a Kharg Island seizure. New this week: the US Navy reimposed its blockade on Iranian shipping effective 4pm ET Jul 14, AND Trump announced the US itself will charge a 20% toll on all OTHER cargo transiting the strait (~$32M/supertanker) — a second toll claim stacked on Iran's own reserved post-60-day fee right. Kpler counted just 14 vessels transiting Sunday (four crude tankers) — down ~60% w/w, the worst since the Jun 18 reopening; Windward says the US-protected southern (Omani) corridor "effectively collapsed" Saturday as operators increasingly comply with Iran's demand to use its own northern route instead. Iran continues exporting regardless: Kpler's Matt Smith counts >9.2 million barrels of Iranian crude through Hormuz since Jul 8, much of it via six US-sanctioned supertankers running AIS-dark. Brent settled +9.59% Monday at $83.30 (largest single-day gain in 6+ years), trading near $86 intraday Tuesday — now +19% vs pre-war; last week's tracked price/physical divergence has largely closed. GEF's own AIS audit (5 new operator screenshots, Jul 11-14): COBA — present in literally every frame of the prior 14-frame/Jul 1-10 audit — finally dropped out of the Jul 14 morning frame after an unbroken run of at least 18 consecutive frames (~13 days), the same morning the blockade took effect; ATEELA 1 and ATLANTIS II dropped out the same frame. CASPIA, MAOMING and AZARKHSH 908 are the new persistent trio. Correction: MARIVAN, assessed Jul 10 as "likely genuinely departed," reappeared in all four subsequent frames — that call did not hold. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL, WORSENING.

Jul 15Day 137 — CORRECTION: the 20% transit toll was dropped; a re-check found Iran struck six Gulf states Jul 12, not three; Houthis formally enter the war threatening Bab el-Mandeb. Trump dropped the 20% US transit toll Tuesday afternoon, less than a day after announcing it, replacing it with unspecified Gulf-state trade deals; the US Navy blockade remains in force. Separately, a re-check of Sunday Jul 12 found GEF's own Jul 14 update understated it: Iran struck SIX Gulf states simultaneously — Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, Oman and the UAE — not three. Qatar was struck for the first time since April (Al Udeid Air Base, 3 injured); Oman was struck (Duqm port) hours after hosting Iran's FM for Hormuz talks and summoned Iran's ambassador in protest; the UAE was struck at Fujairah, the terminus of its primary Hormuz-bypass pipeline; Kuwait had an offshore oil platform hit by drone. Unconfirmed: satellite imagery appears to show damage near Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant; Iran denies it. Two separate tanker-strike incidents (ADNOC's Mombasa/Al Bahiyah Monday, an unnamed pair Tuesday) have killed at least 2 seafarers per the IMO. CENTCOM struck Iran a fourth consecutive night, expanding to the Abadan refinery. Most significantly: Yemen's Houthis formally entered the war Tuesday, threatening to close Bab el-Mandeb alongside Hormuz — directly endangering the Saudi and UAE bypass routes cited throughout this crisis as Hormuz's safety valves; prediction markets price ~15.5% odds of Bab el-Mandeb closure by Sep 30. Brent settled +1.72% Tuesday to $84.73, trading ~$85.84 today, holding its gains despite the toll reversal. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL, WORSENING.

Jul 16Day 138 — blockade draws first blood: an empty Kharg-bound tanker disabled; Trump weighs seizing Kharg Island itself; CENTCOM says Iran has hit seven commercial vessels in a week. The US Navy blockade (in force since Jul 14) disabled its first vessel: the empty, Curacao-flagged M/T Belma, sailing toward Kharg Island, ignored warnings and was disabled by a Hellfire strike on its smokestack; CENTCOM says it also redirected two compliant vessels in the blockade's first 24 hours. CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said Wednesday that Iran has deliberately attacked seven commercial vessels over the past week, leaving nearly a dozen civilian crew killed, wounded or missing. A fourth consecutive night of US strikes hit Iran, including an inland strike on the Artesh's 388th Mechanized Assault Brigade barracks in Iranshahr — unusually far (~200km) from the coastal targets that dominated July's campaign; Iran retaliated against US-linked sites in Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait. Trump is weighing broadening the campaign further: a Kharg Island seizure — the terminal for ~90% of Iran's oil exports — remains under active consideration though not executed, and he floated further strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges next week absent a return to talks. The US Treasury separately sanctioned 50+ entities and vessels tied to a Shamkhani-network oil-export and sanctions-evasion operation that also supplies the Houthis. Transit remains a trickle: 8 vessels in, 5 out on the most recently reported day, against ~110/day pre-war. Brent settled $84.95 Wednesday (a fourth straight up session, one-month high), trading near $86 today — the toll reversal still has not meaningfully cooled the price. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL, WORSENING.

Jul 17Day 139 — Basra tanker drone-hit, status contested; Kpler transits hit a 2-month low; GEF's own AIS audit shows a steadier picture. A drone hit the docked, Liberian-flagged tanker Supreme Prosperity at Iraq's Basra Oil Terminal Thursday — no damage, no fire, no casualties. The severity is genuinely disputed: early Xinhua wires reported loading suspended at all Iraqi terminals, while Iraqi port officials and SOMO's Ali Nazar told Reuters operations resumed the same day and the terminal "is not targeting Basra Oil Terminal. Its target is another place." Separately, Kpler-reported Hormuz transits fell to 7 vessels Wednesday, down from 13 Tuesday and the lowest print in two months by that methodology. Against that, GEF's own operator AIS audit — a fourth consecutive Hormuz frame captured Jul 17 ~08:49 local — reconfirms a 7-vessel persistent core (BARIN 313, ATLANTIS II, CASPIA, MAOMING, HASNA, GPS GOD, SOLIX) unbroken since Jul 15, with CASPIA and MAOMING's streak since Jul 11 extending further. Bab el-Mandeb's own persistent pair (RUI FU SHENG, SERENO) similarly extended to a fifth frame, ~59 hours. GEF also re-imaged Suez, Malacca and Panama for the first time since Jul 14 — all three unchanged, Malacca notably tanker-heavy. Brent trading ~$85, holding most of the week's gains. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL, now reading HOLDING rather than WORSENING — no confirmed escalation matches Jul 16's severity.

Jul 17Day 139 (retro) — Jordan strike kills 2 US service members, first US combat deaths since March. An Iranian ballistic-missile/drone attack on a US base in Jordan Friday killed two American service members and left a third missing — CENTCOM confirms these are the first US military fatalities from Iranian fire since March, taking the war's cumulative US death toll to 16. The US ran a seventh consecutive strike night in response. Brent settled $88.10 Friday (+4.6% d/d), a one-month-plus high; WTI settled $82.49 (+4.5%). (Logged retrospectively Jul 20 once full confirmation landed; GEF's live Jul 17 entry above, filed same-day, had not yet captured this.)

Jul 18Day 140 — Saturday catch-up: no new escalation, GEF's own AIS shows the strait holding steady. A quiet news day by the standard of the past two weeks — today's daily-floor research (crude tape, dominant-crisis beat, shortage-pin scan) found nothing warranting escalation or de-escalation. The widely-reported "US strikes Iran-linked tanker near Kharg Island" story making the rounds this week is the same M/T Belma incident already covered in the Jul 16 entry above, not a new development. GEF's own operator AIS audit picked up a fresh Hormuz frame Saturday morning (~08:11 local): the persistent core reconfirmed (BARIN 313, CASPIA, HASNA, ATLANTIS II, GPS GOD, SOLIX), and notably COBA reappeared after several consecutive absent frames — consistent with the same in/out pattern already established for MARIVAN and ATEELA, not a fresh arrival worth flagging as new activity. Bab el-Mandeb's RUI FU SHENG + SERENO persistent pair extended further, now past 80 hours continuous. Brent settled $85.95 Friday (+2.04% d/d), trading ~$85 today, roughly +21% above pre-war levels. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL, HOLDING.

Jul 18Day 140 (addendum) — Iran declares the MoU "entirely suspended"; Kuwait hit for a 2nd consecutive day. Iran's deputy FM Kazem Gharibabadi says the US has "violated all the commitments and suspended the MoU entirely" — a step beyond the week's fighting, since Tehran is now disclaiming the framework itself, not just violating it under strain. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei calls Trump's signature "utterly worthless"; Trump, asked about the suspension: "I couldn't care less." Kuwait's power/desalination plant is hit for a second consecutive day, and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation separately confirms one of its oil facilities (near Ahmadi Governorate) was damaged by "repeated Iranian attacks," with injuries; Kuwait International Airport suspends flights. (This supersedes the "no new escalation" read filed earlier the same day above — the MoU-suspension news broke later Saturday.)

Jul 19Day 141 — 8th consecutive strike night hits Iran's Darkhovin nuclear site; Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan hit again. The US expands its strike campaign to Iran's partially-built Darkhovin nuclear facility for the first time (IAEA: no nuclear material present at last inspection, site in early construction). Iran retaliates against Kuwait (IRGC claims a hit on a US support center at Camp Arifjan and a radar facility at Ali Al Salem Air Base), Bahrain (attacks repelled per Bahraini air defense) and Jordan (3 of 4 incoming missiles shot down). Maritime-risk specialists (Lloyd's List Intelligence, via CNBC) describe the strait as back in a "worst-case scenario": at least nine ships attacked since Jul 6, transit reduced to "a trickle" with a share of vessels running AIS-dark. Board: CRITICAL, now reading WORSENING.

Jul 20Day 142 — Brent trades above $90 intraday; GEF's own AIS audit shows the core still holding through the political rupture. Brent trades above $90 intraday Monday — its highest level since mid-June — before paring some of the gain; WTI trades near $84. GEF's own independent AIS audit, covering four frames from Friday night (Jul 17) through this morning, shows the Hormuz persistent core — HARBOUR PHOENIX, MARIVAN, CASPIA, SYRON, GPS GOD, SOLIX, STARBOUND EXPLORER — holding continuously with ordinary secondary-vessel turnover (new arrivals: ARGO MARIS, GAS LUCKY, KAVOMALEAS; NIKI and RAFFLES PROSPERITY, both early non-domestic-flag names first logged in June, reappear) and no empty-frame signal. Bab el-Mandeb shows dense, ordinary transiting traffic across the same four frames — no AIS evidence yet that the Houthis' stated intent to close the strait alongside Hormuz has materialized physically. This week's underweighted-region scan (Central Asia) separately surfaced a confirmed diesel shortage in Tajikistan, rooted in Russian refinery disruptions rather than the Gulf war — see Shortages. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL, WORSENING — the diplomatic floor is gone, the physical picture hasn't yet caught up to it.

Jul 21Day 143 — Mediators propose a 10-day ceasefire; same day, Houthis declare a Saudi-specific Bab el-Mandeb embargo. Reuters reports mediators passed Iran a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire to revive June's interim deal (senior Iranian official, unclear if accepted); Iran's FM spokesman confirms mediators are engaged while separately describing the conflict as “full-scale war.” The same day, Yemen's Houthis announce a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia specifically, effective immediately, via Bab el-Mandeb — retaliation for Saudi's own Yemen blockade and a Sanaa airport strike, not a Hormuz-coordination move. A third US service member is now confirmed killed from the Jul 17 Jordan strike; Iran says it intercepted four vessels transiting Hormuz over the weekend, and separately instructed the Houthis to prepare Red Sea disruption if the US targets Iranian power infrastructure. Brent spikes to $91.41 intraday before paring to a $87.72 close (-0.44% d/d) on the ceasefire report. GEF's own AIS audit — 6 frames now, Fri night through Tue AM, ~5.5 days continuous — shows the Hormuz core still holding and Bab el-Mandeb showing normal dense transit hours after the embargo declaration. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL, WORSENING — a real de-escalation offer and a real new threat landed the same day, and neither has physically materialized yet.

Jul 22Day 144 — Three tankers hit Monday; Hormuz reported “deserted” Tuesday; Brent above $92. Monday saw three tankers hit within hours: the Malta-flagged Kavomaleas (Dynacom-managed) struck by two projectiles off Oman, engine-room fire, crew abandoned; the Kuwaiti-flagged Kaifan (KOTC, IMO 9656046) struck by drone/missile northeast of Limah, also abandoned; a third Dynacom vessel damaged, crew remained aboard. Rigzone, citing tracking data, reported “Hormuz was deserted on Tuesday with no ships observed transiting” — a finding GEF treats as consistent with, not contradicting, its own AIS audit, which has tracked vessel presence (a stable loitering core) rather than confirmed transit throughout. Wednesday, Iran said it “attacked and stopped two non-compliant oil tankers” and separately struck US radar/air-defense sites in the Gulf. Brent rose three consecutive sessions: $89.22 Mon → $91.10 Tue (5-week high) → above $92 intraday Wed, highest since Jun 11. A Saudi crude tanker reportedly reversed course over the Houthi Red Sea threat; a separate strike hit the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on Russia's Black Sea coast, disrupting Kazakh exports. Crisis toll since Feb 28 (Wikipedia): 1 tugboat sunk, 17+ ships damaged (7 abandoned), 2 captured, 12 seafarers killed/missing. GEF's own AIS audit — 7 frames now, Fri night through Wed morning — still shows the persistent core present. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL, WORSENING.

Jul 23Day 145 — Houthis strike 2 Saudi tankers directly in the Red Sea; 12th consecutive US strike night; Brent near $96. Overnight, Yemen's Houthis said they fired missiles and drones directly at two Saudi tankers — the Encelia and the Layla — in the Red Sea, for “violating a blockade.” This is the first confirmed direct tanker strike in that specific chokepoint this cycle, distinct from the Houthis' Jul 20 declared embargo against Saudi shipping, which had not yet produced a confirmed physical attack. The US ran a 12th consecutive strike night on Iran. Trump posted on Truth Social that any new Iranian attack on a Hormuz-transiting ship would see the US “bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT… including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran” — a sharper, more specific threat naming Iran's capital directly. Iran's Health Ministry now says US strikes have killed 53 and injured 592 over the past month (Jun 27-Jul 22). The Joint Maritime Information Center in Bahrain reported Hormuz commercial traffic at a three-week low Tuesday. Brent extended its rally to near $96 intraday Thursday — a six-week-plus high — with WTI above $88. Separately, the EIA's weekly report (released Jul 22, w/e Jul 17) showed US commercial crude unexpectedly BUILT +2.0 Mbbl to 411.7 Mbbl against a forecast draw; this week's SPR figure was not yet found in a clean official source. GEF's own AIS audit continues to show the Hormuz persistent core present, consistent with loitering rather than confirmed transit — this week's newly-confirmed physical escalation is specifically in Bab el-Mandeb, not Hormuz itself. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL, WORSENING; Bab el-Mandeb's own direction flipped to WORSENING on the risk-analysis page given this is now a materialized attack, not a declared threat.

Jul 24Day 146 — Brent breaks $100/barrel for the first time since May; Iran claims Hormuz “completely closed,” GEF's own AIS says otherwise. Brent settled $100.69 Thursday (+7% in a single day, highest since May 22) and held above/near $100 into Friday, up more than 13% for the week, extending the rally that followed Wednesday's direct Houthi tanker strikes. Kazakhstan suspended crude exports entirely through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal following drone attacks, tightening supply further outside the Gulf. Trump escalated his own rhetoric: he warned of “major military punishment” if the Houthis strike shipping again, and told Axios he is “considering a massive attack” on Iran; Secretary of State Rubio, notably, said the Houthis got “suckered” into attacking shipping and called on them to de-escalate — a US attempt to separate the Houthi front from the wider conflict. Iran's Revolutionary Guards made two further claims this week, neither independently confirmed: a tanker fire from an explosion on a “mined route” near the strait, and that Hormuz itself is under Iranian control and “completely closed” to any US activity not coordinated with Tehran. UKMTO, as of Wednesday, had registered no fresh attacks in the Hormuz region itself in the preceding 24 hours. GEF's own AIS audit speaks directly to the larger claim: the Hormuz persistent core — HARBOUR PHOENIX, MARIVAN, CASPIA, GPS GOD, SOLIX — was confirmed present again this morning, holding continuously through the entire week. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL, WORSENING — price and rhetoric have both worsened sharply; the physical picture at Hormuz itself, per GEF's own tracking, has not.

Jul 27Day 149 — US-Iran strikes pause, fragile; Bab el-Mandeb worsens, "effectively blocked" per UN envoy. The weekend split the crisis in two directions. The US and Iran paused direct strikes on each other starting late Friday, after 13 consecutive nights of US strikes — Washington without an official announcement, Tehran (per a senior Iranian official, Reuters) saying it will hold its own pause only as long as the US does not resume attacks. Iran and Oman held deputy-foreign-minister-level talks on "controlling the strait," though CNN reports Hormuz traffic itself "remains unchanged" despite the diplomacy. Separately, an IRGC spokesman accused Israel of trying to keep the US in the region by "provoking" Trump with false information about an assassination plot. On the Bab el-Mandeb front, the situation deteriorated: Yemen's Houthis fired missiles and drones directly at two of Saudi Arabia's most strategically important Red Sea oil facilities, at the ports of Jizan and Yanbu — a further escalation beyond last week's tanker strikes. A UN envoy said Bab el-Mandeb "has become effectively blocked" by the Houthis. Crude reflected the whipsaw directly: Brent hit a two-month intraday high near $102 Thursday, settled $100.69, then reversed hard — $97-98 Friday, ~$91 by Monday, down about 6% today alone though still up roughly 30% for the month. GEF's own AIS audit continues to show the Hormuz persistent core present, now holding for more than a full week. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — the direct US-Iran military exchange is cooling, at least for now, but the wider crisis is not: Bab el-Mandeb has taken over as the more active front.

Jul 28Day 150 — Brent crashes 8.7% Monday as the market prices the US-Iran pause as real; Bab el-Mandeb still the active front. The strike pause held a second day, and crude repriced hard on it: Brent settled $88.36 Monday (-8.7% d/d, the sharpest single-day drop in more than three months), WTI $82.61 (-7.5%). Trump called talks with Iran "good" and said "there's a good chance that something could happen," while also warning of "strong military action" if diplomacy fails. The price move is running ahead of the physical picture, though: Kpler counted fewer than 10 Hormuz transits a day over the weekend, roughly 15% of pre-war throughput against a normal run rate of ~20 million barrels a day of crude, condensate and products. Bab el-Mandeb stayed the more active front — satellite imagery has now confirmed expanding fires at Saudi Aramco's Jizan complex, the first independent visual confirmation of Houthi strike damage, and Saudi crude shipments to Asia via Suez have more than doubled to 1.06 million barrels a day as exporters route around the Red Sea entirely. Elsewhere in the system, Kazakhstan's CPC export terminal resumed loading Monday after a week-long, drone-strike-driven suspension that briefly more than halved the country's oil output. GEF's own AIS audit reconfirms the Hormuz persistent core — HARBOUR PHOENIX, MARIVAN, CASPIA, GPS GOD, SOLIX — present again this morning, holding continuously through the entire week. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — price and rhetoric have both cooled sharply, but the physical picture at Hormuz itself, per GEF's own tracking, has not.

Jul 29Day 151 — the pause is over: Iran's surprise missile attack on US forces shatters it; all intercepted; oil jumps, US+Saudi strike Iraq militia sites. Crude had spent three straight sessions falling on diplomatic optimism -- a cumulative ~16% slide, the steepest 3-day drop since April 2020, to a Tuesday settle of $84.09 for Brent ($79.26 WTI). Then, at 5:45pm ET Tuesday, Iran's IRGC launched multiple ballistic missiles in an "attempted surprise attack" on US forces in the Middle East -- CENTCOM says every missile was intercepted, no casualties or damage reported, but the pause that had held since late Friday is broken. The US and Saudi Arabia responded with joint strikes on Iran-aligned militia sites in Iraq -- notable as Saudi Arabia had largely resisted direct military involvement in the conflict until now. Oil reversed hard: Brent gained 3.42% to $86.97 in early Wednesday trade (CNBC), Bloomberg describing it as climbing "more than 4% to near $88." The escalation wasn't limited to the missile exchange: Iran-backed militias in Iraq struck Saudi Eastern Region oil facilities for a second consecutive day (Saudi's Ministry of Defense intercepted the drones, without confirming damage), Yemen's Houthis claimed a strike on Aramco's Abqaiq processing facility -- the same complex hit in the well-known 2019 attack -- and separately claimed forcing a Saudi tanker to turn back as part of a self-declared blockade. On the diplomatic track, Iran rejected an Omani proposal for 50-50 shared control of the strait, insisting on retaining full control of the inbound lane, while Iran's Foreign Ministry maintained its own position that the strait "remains closed" under its authority -- a claim GEF's own AIS continues to show is not reflected on the water. Trump met Israeli PM Netanyahu at the White House the same day and, per Bloomberg, said Wednesday he'd "prefer to avoid another escalation" and urged Iran to make a deal, even as CENTCOM says its blockade enforcement has now redirected 18 commercial vessels, disabled 2 and boarded 2. Board: ESCALATING WITHIN CRITICAL — the direct US-Iran military channel has reopened after a 3-4 day lull, though GEF's own AIS still shows no fresh physical closure signal at Hormuz itself.

Jul 30Day 152 — the US strikes Iran directly: a 2-hour "heavy wave" hits dozens of IRGC targets; Brent settles up 7.91%, one of the sharpest single-day spikes of the war. Wednesday, hours after the US and Saudi Arabia struck Iran-aligned militias in Iraq (killing at least 20 fighters and 6 Iranian advisers), President Trump told reporters "we're going to be hitting them very hard because it's our turn to hit them." That evening, 8-10pm ET, US forces completed a "heavy wave" of direct strikes on Iran itself -- CENTCOM said the two-hour operation struck dozens of IRGC targets, including military command centers, missile and drone facilities, coastal surveillance and defense sites, and maritime capabilities, calling it a "powerful response" to Tuesday's intercepted Iranian missile attack. This marks the direct US-Iran military channel fully reopening, beyond the Iraq-proxy exchanges of the prior two days. Crude reacted sharply: Brent settled Wednesday up 7.91% (Reuters), WTI up 6.56% -- among the sharpest single-day moves of the entire war -- before both pulled back modestly in early Thursday trade (Brent -0.9% to $87.30, WTI -0.9% to $83.70 as of 0015 GMT) as tankers continued moving through the region despite the escalation. Separately, the official EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (week ending Jul 24, released Wednesday) showed a much larger-than-expected US commercial crude draw of 7.167 million barrels, against forecasts of just 1.3 million -- a genuine tightening signal layered on top of the geopolitical story. GEF's own AIS audit continues to show the Hormuz persistent core present, with no fresh physical closure signal at the strait itself. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL, ESCALATING — price and the direct military exchange have both intensified sharply this week; the physical picture at Hormuz, per GEF's own tracking, has not moved as far.

Jul 31Day 153 — the war widens to a new front: a drone hits a US-owned LNG vessel at Egypt's Damietta port near Suez; Kazakhstan's CPC terminal suspends loadings again; a QatarEnergy tanker exits Hormuz for the first time since Jul 11. A drone struck the US-owned LNG floating storage vessel Energos Winter at Egypt's Damietta port on the Mediterranean Wednesday, with fire spreading to a second LNG tanker, GasLog Salem; Egypt's cabinet confirmed Thursday it was a drone attack rather than an accident. No group has claimed responsibility -- Euronews reports Iranian state TV had flagged Damietta as a possible retaliation site against "Ukrainian interests" two days earlier, following a Ukrainian strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, an unconfirmed but notable attribution angle. This is the first attack on Egyptian soil this war, landing directly on the Suez Canal/Sumed pipeline corridor that has become the last remaining safe route for Saudi oil after Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb both degraded; Sumed crude loadings had already risen to 28.79 million barrels in July from 19.52 million in June (Kpler) on exactly this rerouting. Separately, Kazakhstan's CPC terminal suspended loadings again Thursday after two more tankers were attacked overnight near Novorossiysk -- the Marshall Islands-flagged NISSOS SIFNOS was hit while loading Tengizchevroil (Chevron) crude, a fire on the cargo deck extinguished with no casualties -- just three days after resuming from the prior week-long suspension. On the diplomatic track, Iran formally rejected an Omani proposal for shared Hormuz management Wednesday, insisting on retaining full control, though Iran's own foreign ministry says talks with Oman continue; separately, a QatarEnergy-controlled LNG tanker exited Hormuz overnight Thursday, the first such vessel recorded leaving the strait since July 11, reportedly with Tehran's explicit permission per Iran's Fars news agency. Crude reflected the widening conflict: Brent climbed above $92 intraday Thursday before easing to a $90.04 close (-0.78% d/d), then pulling back further toward $87 in early Friday trade as tankers keep moving through the Red Sea despite Houthi threats, some running AIS-dark. GEF's own AIS audit continues to show the Hormuz persistent core present, with no fresh physical closure signal at the strait itself. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — the conflict is spreading geographically (Egypt, the Black Sea) faster than it is changing physically at Hormuz.

Aug 3Day 156 — the biggest diplomatic movement of the war: Trump defers planned new strikes on Iran; Iran says Oman talks on managing the strait are in their "final stages"; crude falls over 5%. Friday, Iran's IRGC claimed it hit two tankers transiting Hormuz under US military escort, with four more turned back (per PressTV) -- Western maritime authorities have not confirmed this. Brent settled Friday at $87.93 (+1.21%), WTI at $84.67 (+1.29%), capping a ~24-26% gain for July, the strongest monthly move for both benchmarks since March. Over the weekend, President Trump said the US and Israel agreed to defer planned new strikes on Iran -- by his account, after Iran and other Middle Eastern countries asked for the pause -- saying the "parameters" of a deal are established: an "Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT" and an end to Iran's nuclear threat, with Israel "joining" the commitment. Iranian state media gave no indication Tehran had requested the pause. Separately and more concretely, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told the cabinet Sunday that negotiations with Oman over managing the strait are "nearing completion" and "on the way to being finalized" -- though Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei cautioned that an Iran-Oman understanding on a new maritime route does not necessarily mean the strait itself is being opened or closed, and Iran continues to insist Hormuz will never return to its pre-war status. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called Trump Saturday urging him to "prioritise dialogue" and "reduce escalation"; Axios separately reported MBS had expressed concern over Trump's plans for large new strikes and urged restraint. Al Jazeera's own reporting from Tehran flagged healthy skepticism: Iran has a pattern of pairing "talks going well" messaging with simultaneous confrontational rhetoric. Crude reversed hard on the combination of Friday's claimed attack and the weekend's diplomatic signals: Brent fell 5.16% Monday to $83.39, WTI fell 5.9% to $79.66 -- one of the sharpest single-day drops of the entire war. CENTCOM says its blockade enforcement has now redirected 35 commercial vessels and disabled two. GEF's own AIS audit continues to show the Hormuz persistent core present, with no confirmed physical change in strait activity yet. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — genuinely the most advanced diplomatic signal of the cycle, but not yet a physical change on the water, and Iran's own framing leaves real room for this to not resolve into an actual reopening.

Aug 4Day 157 — Iran sharpens its denial: Tehran says it is negotiating only with Oman on shipping routes, not with Washington directly. Follow-up reporting Tuesday clarified and hardened Monday's ambiguity: PressTV reported Iran explicitly denied any talks were planned with Washington, contradicting Trump's claim that the US and Iran would hold direct negotiations. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran's only active talks are with Oman, on which route ships can sail through the strait -- and that even an Iran-Oman understanding on a new route would not necessarily mean the strait itself is opening or closing. Iran's FM Araghchi's Sunday characterization of the Oman talks as "nearing completion" stands, but the direct US-Iran channel Trump described appears to be, at most, aspirational on the US side rather than agreed. Brent's Monday settle was confirmed at $82.92 (-5.69% d/d, Forbes), capping a July that gained roughly 24%, now substantially unwound. GEF's own AIS audit continues to show the Hormuz persistent core present, with no confirmed physical change in strait activity. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — the diplomatic track remains the most advanced of the cycle on the Oman/routing question specifically, but Iran's explicit denial of direct US talks is a meaningful downgrade from the broader deal Trump described, and GEF continues to treat claimed diplomatic progress as unconfirmed until it registers physically.

Aug 5Day 158 — US, Iran and Oman close in on an interim deal to reopen Hormuz; Axios reports the US is targeting a Wednesday announcement; Brent down ~10% for the week. Axios reports the US, Iran and Oman are closing in on an interim agreement, with the US aiming for a Wednesday (today) announcement, citing regional sources and a US official -- though as of this morning the deal remains unfinalized. Under the reported terms: ships enter the Persian Gulf via an Iran-controlled route and exit via an Oman-controlled route, with shared "service fees" for security and environmental costs, as part of a 60-day temporary arrangement that could be extended. Qatari, Pakistani and Saudi officials have been mediating alongside repeated calls between Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, Iran's FM Abbas Araghchi, and Oman's FM Badr al-Busaidi. Two regional sources say Araghchi agreed in principle over the weekend but still needs sign-off from Iran's Supreme Leader and Supreme National Security Council -- a genuine veto point. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday there has been "progress made in those talks, but not finality yet," and has previously ruled out any deal giving Iran control of the strait, calling that a "very dangerous precedent" -- a direct tension with the reported Iran-controlled inbound route that GEF is flagging rather than resolving. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC "there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow." On the water: CENTCOM says the Omani "southern route" remains "free and open," having assisted over 1,000 vessels transiting despite what it called "unwarranted" Iranian aggression. Kpler counted 9 confirmed Hormuz transits Sunday -- 7 via the Iranian route, only 2 of 9 tankers, some vessels running AIS-dark, complicating analysis. Marisks estimates Omani-lane crude flows at 3-5 million barrels a day, "not yet a fully enforced exclusion regime." Separately, Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said even an immediate reopening would take up to 18 months to fully replenish depleted global inventories at a realistic restocking rate. OPEC+ approved a further September output increase (+188,000 bpd), completing the unwind of its 2023 production cuts. Crude has fallen roughly 10% this week on the diplomatic optimism: Brent settled Tuesday around $79 (down from Monday's $82.92), WTI in the mid-$70s. GEF's own AIS audit continues to show the Hormuz persistent core present, unmoved by the diplomacy either way. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — this is genuinely the most advanced diplomatic signal of the entire cycle, closer to a real mechanism than any prior claim, but it is still an announced target rather than a confirmed agreement, and the Rubio/reported-terms tension leaves real room for this to not resolve cleanly.

Aug 6Day 159 — Iran and Oman say they have reached agreement on a Hormuz shipping route, now awaiting Khamenei's sign-off; AP reports unresolved questions persist about his health and public availability. Iran and Oman said Wednesday they reached an agreement on a proposed shipping route through the strait -- Tehran's Foreign Ministry says a joint statement is in final drafting, describing talks as "forward-moving" and saying a deal would be struck "if certain third parties do not obstruct this process." The reported route would give Iran more control than it held before the war: the inbound lane entirely under Iran's control, with part of the outbound lane remaining Oman's -- confirming the framework Iranian Deputy FM Kazem Gharibabadi outlined weeks earlier. Two regional officials told the Associated Press that Iranian and Omani negotiators have finalized the draft and are awaiting sign-off from Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei -- and, significantly, the same officials pointed to unresolved questions about Khamenei's health and public availability since taking office in July, an unconfirmed but consequential claim GEF is flagging with appropriate caution. AP separately reports the agreement is likely contingent on the US lifting its naval blockade of Iran's ports. The Trump administration has previously ruled out any deal that would cement Iran's grip over the strait, calling that a "very dangerous precedent" -- a direct tension with the reported terms. President Trump said "a lot of progress has been made" and suggested an announcement could come soon. Notably, spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Iran and Oman have no plans to travel to Qatar or Pakistan, where prior US-mediated talks took place -- raising the possibility this route agreement is moving on a more bilateral Iran-Oman track than the broader US-brokered deal Trump has described. Separately, Yemen's Houthis struck an eighth Saudi oil tanker off Yanbu Wednesday, the latest in their declared blockade since Jul 22 -- Bab el-Mandeb remains fully active even as the Hormuz track advances. CBS News reports the US has used nearly all of its global stockpile of long-range precision missiles during the war, per two sources with direct knowledge. Crude settled back near $80 Wednesday (still down ~10% for the week), holding around $80.28 Thursday morning. GEF's own AIS audit continues to show the Hormuz persistent core present. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — this is the most concrete diplomatic step of the entire cycle, an actual bilateral route agreement rather than just a characterization of progress, but it remains unfinalized and unannounced, with a real approval bottleneck (Khamenei) and a real US-Iran tension (control of the strait) still unresolved.

Aug 7Day 160 — Iran's parliament reviews Hormuz terms far stricter than markets expected; contested explosions reported on Qeshm Island; Brent reverses to ~$81 as reopening hopes dim. Al Hadath and Al Arabiya reported Iran and Oman reached an understanding on the outlines of a 60-day agreement -- vessels entering via a route close to Iran, no transit fees -- still needing approval from Iran's Supreme National Security Council. But CNN reported Iranian Deputy FM Kazem Gharibabadi cautioning that an Iran-Oman agreement would not by itself reopen the waterway the way President Trump hopes; Iran says the US must meet additional conditions first. More concretely, Iran's parliament is now reviewing a draft with terms considerably stricter than markets expected: prohibiting US and Israeli vessels from transiting Hormuz entirely, requiring "hostile" countries to pay compensation before being granted passage, penalties equal to 20% of a vessel's cargo value for violations, and stating the strait would only fully reopen once the US lifts its maritime blockade of Iran. Sources differ on the proposed route's duration -- reports range from 60 days to two-to-four months. Overnight, two explosions were heard at the Bahman pier on Qeshm Island; Iranian state media (Tasnim, IRIB) said Iranian forces had confronted "hostile enemy targets" at the entrance to Hormuz, but Hormozgan's deputy governor Ahmad Nafisi said no strike had actually been reported on the island or in Bandar Abbas and authorities were investigating, while Israel's military told AFP it was "not aware of such" a strike -- a genuinely contested incident GEF is not resolving in either direction. Separately, Iran's own President Masoud Pezeshkian said on state TV that it is "very difficult" to reach Supreme Leader Khamenei -- a stronger, more directly-sourced echo of the AP officials' earlier claim that unresolved questions persist about Khamenei's health and public availability. Khamenei's military adviser Mohsen Rezaei separately warned Iran's forces "will not stand idly by" under the US blockade and threatened to target any US warships entering what he called "the illegal route." CENTCOM now says its blockade enforcement has redirected 44 commercial vessels (up from 35 a week ago). Yemen's Houthis claimed a fresh attack on a Saudi oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden and threatened further vessels in the Red Sea. On the more encouraging side, Saudi Aramco cut its official selling price for Asian buyers, a market signal of improving regional supply expectations. Crude whipsawed accordingly: Brent dipped toward $75 Thursday on the deal optimism, then reversed sharply to settle around $81 as the stricter parliamentary terms emerged -- one of the more volatile single-session round-trips of the week. GEF's own AIS audit continues to show the Hormuz persistent core present. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — it is now clearer than yesterday that "deal reached" does not mean "strait reopens," and the gap between those two things is where the real risk still sits.

Aug 10Day 163 — Iran hardens weekend demands, denies active US talks, says the strait won't reopen "until America corrects its behavior"; ADNOC reports 3 vessels attacked transiting Hormuz; Brent climbs to $84.18, a third day of gains. Over the weekend Iran's position hardened considerably. FM Abbas Araghchi said Sunday there are "no ongoing negotiations" between Tehran and Washington, adding "the intermediaries are still making efforts to find ways to resume negotiations." Tehran vowed not to reopen the shipping lane "until America corrects its behavior," setting out demands including an end to the US naval blockade, the lifting of sanctions, and compensation for war damages. Araghchi separately said the previously established shipping traffic-separation scheme is "no longer acceptable" to Iran, and that Tehran is discussing only a temporary route with Oman while technical and legal issues around a permanent route remain unresolved. Iran's spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi said "whenever the United States accepts Iran's conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will certainly be reopened." Vice President JD Vance said Friday on Fox News the US wants to "maximize the amount of oil and gas that are coming out of the Strait of Hormuz," expecting the same volumes as before the war, and that any deal requires an Iranian commitment not to fire on commercial vessels -- "that's what the entire Gulf coalition wants to do as well." Oman's foreign ministry described its talks with Iran as "positive and constructive" while condemning, without assigning blame, "repeated attacks on vessels" transiting the strait. The physical picture kept deteriorating in parallel: ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) reported attacks on three vessels transiting Hormuz over the weekend; UKMTO logged a projectile strike on a ship near Khasab, Oman Saturday (fire extinguished, crew and vessel safe); Yemen's Houthis claimed a strike on Saudi Arabia's Jazan refinery and, separately, a "large-scale" attack on Saudi-aligned forces inside Yemen, plus a fresh strike targeting Mocha port on the Red Sea. Iranian state media reported Sunday that President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Supreme Leader Khamenei to discuss "the war and the future ahead" -- NBC News reported no evidence was provided that the meeting actually took place, a claim GEF is not treating as confirmed; this follows Pezeshkian's own earlier acknowledgment that reaching Khamenei has been "very difficult." Trump maintained an optimistic public tone throughout the weekend, saying the conflict could end "pretty soon." Crude reflected the persistent uncertainty: Brent climbed to $84.18 Monday, a third consecutive session of gains, though it still posted a net loss for the prior week overall given the sharp Thursday reversal. GEF's own AIS audit continues to show the Hormuz persistent core present. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — the gap between "talks are close" and "the strait reopens" has, if anything, widened this week rather than narrowed.

Aug 11Day 164 — Iran holds its hardened weekend position; ADNOC's cumulative toll reaches 15 vessels attacked since the war began; Brent holds near $84. FM Araghchi said the agreement with Oman on a Hormuz route is "very close," but reopening remains conditioned on the US lifting its naval blockade, easing sanctions, and other concessions -- Iran continues to rule out direct talks with Washington, citing violations of the June interim deal. Spokesperson Baghaei: "As long as the U.S. naval blockade continues, the necessary conditions for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz do not exist." VP Vance said the US has used "a whole host of tools" to pressure Iran. ADNOC disclosed a fuller cumulative toll: 15 of its vessels attacked transiting Hormuz since the conflict began. Congressional Research Service background noted Iran established a "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" in May claiming permit authority over all Hormuz passage -- a claim Oman has not aligned with, and other Gulf Arab states have "vociferously rejected." Crude holds near $84, up ~16% since the war began. GEF's own AIS audit continues to show the Hormuz persistent core present. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — no material change from Monday.

Aug 14Day 167 — crude rises 5 straight sessions on Iran's restrictive draft Hormuz plan, then eases as IEA/OPEC cut demand forecasts; Trump says the US is "only semi-negotiating" with Iran. Crude climbed for five consecutive sessions this week -- Brent touching $89.53 Wednesday, ~24% above pre-war levels -- as Iranian state media published a restrictive draft plan for Hormuz (banning US and Israeli vessels, requiring compensation from "nations that have harmed Iran," 20% cargo-value penalties) and CENTCOM disabled a Panama-flagged cargo vessel attempting to break the US blockade. Qatar's Foreign Ministry said Tuesday that Oman-Iran talks are at an "advanced stage," wanting the strait reopened "as soon as possible" -- but Iran continues to frame those talks as separate from the broader reopening question, insisting on sanctions relief and war reparations first. Trump told Axios the US is "only semi-negotiating" with Iran, relying on the blockade rather than further strikes -- a step back from earlier claims of active direct talks -- while separately claiming the US has "total control" over the strait despite traffic remaining a fraction of pre-war levels. Thursday, crude broke its winning streak: the IEA cut its global demand outlook, OPEC cut its 2026 demand growth forecast for a fourth straight time, and US crude inventories surged 17.4 million barrels -- the largest weekly build since Jan 2023 -- pulling Brent back to ~$87. Kpler: Hormuz traffic down ~33% week-on-week, most vessels now using the Iranian route. GEF's own AIS audit continues to show the Hormuz persistent core present. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — no confirmed physical change, diplomatic and price signals both moving faster than the water.

Aug 16Day 169 — Iran and Oman edge closer on Hormuz routes, but Brent rises ~6% this week as fresh attacks continue and Bessent readies "unprecedented economic measures" against Iran. Bloomberg reported Saturday that Iran and Oman appear to be edging closer to a deal on managing Hormuz, agreeing on routes through the waterway -- but Brent still rose almost 6% this week as hopes faded for a quick, full resolution. Trump responded to Iran's own compensation demands with a mirror-image counter-demand: Iran must pay compensation for people killed in wars, attacks and protests. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Thursday the US will impose "unprecedented economic measures" against Iran while maintaining the naval blockade, with further announcements expected this coming week. The IEA warned of the widest global oil supply deficit in five years, forecasting global supply could decline 4.3 million bpd (~4%) in 2026. Physically: two ADNOC vessels were struck transiting Hormuz Thursday, another Friday evening; UKMTO reported a projectile striking a bulk carrier's hull Saturday; Houthis killed six in a Red Sea attack and struck Saudi Arabia's Jazan refinery again. IMO's cumulative count as of Aug 11: 65 confirmed vessel incidents, 17 seafarers dead. The US claims up to 9 million bpd is transiting the strait; Barclays estimated actual net exports at just 3 million bpd for the week ending Aug 7, down from 4.4 million the prior week -- a real gap between the US's headline figure and independent estimates. Brent settled Friday above $88. GEF's own AIS audit continues to show the Hormuz persistent core present. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — genuine incremental diplomatic movement on routes specifically, but the broader reopening question remains as far from resolved as ever, with mounting attacks and dueling compensation demands on both sides.

Aug 17Day 170 — UAE explicitly blames Iran for ADNOC vessel attacks; US SPR falls below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983; the Caroline Bezengi oil spill grows to roughly 500 square miles; Brent settles $88.52, up 5%+ for the week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Newsmax the US will pursue "economic isolation" measures against Iran "the likes of which have never been seen," after the US said its naval blockade of Iranian ports could continue "indefinitely." The UAE's foreign ministry explicitly denounced "the hostile Iranian attack" on two ADNOC-affiliated vessels struck transiting Hormuz Thursday evening -- a sharper attribution than the earlier "no group has claimed responsibility" framing. Iran's FM Araghchi told Trump to "be careful" after Trump claimed the US has "total control" of the strait, posting "worse than fake news is fake intelligence" on X -- shipping data does not support Trump's claim, with traffic still a fraction of pre-war levels. A previously undertracked environmental disaster has grown large: the Russian tanker Caroline Bezengi, struck in June and run aground in the strait, is now leaking an estimated 40 million gallons, with Greenpeace estimating the spill covers roughly 500 square miles and Omani state media reporting it has reached about 7.5 miles of the Ras Madrakah coastline on mainland Oman. Separately, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to its lowest level in over four decades -- 293.4 million barrels for the week ending Aug 14 (EIA WPSR, released Aug 19), a 5.3 million barrel weekly draw, tracing to the 172 million barrel exchange-structured release Trump ordered in March; a DOE spokesperson told CNBC the reserve's safe operating minimum is roughly 70 million barrels, well below the 252.4 million barrel statutory threshold that restricts certain limited drawdowns. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Hormuz exports have reached a 9 million bpd 7-day moving average under US military escort, with total Gulf flows around 15 million bpd including pipelines -- GEF notes this sits well above independent flow estimates (Barclays: ~3 million bpd for the week ending Aug 7), a gap GEF is not resolving in either direction. Iran's SNSC Secretary Mohsen Rezaei separately demanded the US unfreeze Iranian funds held overseas as a reopening condition. Crude settled Friday at $88.52 (+1.7% d/d), up more than 5% for the week despite a roughly 2% Thursday dip. GEF's own AIS audit continues to show the Hormuz persistent core present. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — no confirmed physical change on the water, even as the domestic and environmental toll of the war keeps compounding.

Aug 18Day 171 — the June 17 US-Iran MoU formally expires with no extension; Trump demands Iran "put up the white flag of surrender" and threatens to bomb Oman for negotiating with Tehran; crude spikes above $91 intraday before settling nearly flat at $88.31. The June 17 memorandum of understanding -- the interim US-Iran deal meant to open Hormuz while nuclear talks continued -- formally expired Monday with no extension. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei ruled out any extension talks entirely: "We did not start any negotiations at all, and the U.S. violated the understanding from the very beginning; therefore, the 60-day issue is not relevant." President Trump demanded Iran "put up the white flag of surrender" in a Fox News interview, and separately threatened to bomb Oman -- a US ally -- for negotiating with Tehran over how to manage Hormuz traffic; markets showed little reaction to the Oman threat specifically. Crude whipsawed hard on the news, spiking intraday above $91 before settling nearly flat at $88.31, down 0.24% from Friday. Working against the escalatory headlines: Gulf producers appear to be maintaining substantial shipments through the strait despite the conflict, with reports suggesting more oil is moving through Hormuz than initially expected -- a countervailing signal feeding into the ongoing dispute over Energy Secretary Chris Wright's claim of a 9 million bpd 7-day average flowing through the strait under US escort. Iran's FM Araghchi said Tehran "had not decided whether to resume talks with the US" at all. Trump separately urged Americans to accept somewhat higher gasoline prices as the conflict continues. UAE said Iran struck an oil tanker in the strait Friday, a distinct incident from the ADNOC-vessel attacks earlier in the week. Israel also launched fresh strikes on Lebanon over the weekend, killing 11 people including a senior Hezbollah commander. GEF's own AIS audit continues to show the Hormuz persistent core present. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — the formal expiry of the only agreement that had briefly reopened the strait removes even the paper basis for a near-term resolution.

Aug 19Day 172 — Brent breaks above $91 on a fourth straight session of gains as Trump confirms there are no ongoing talks with Tehran; eight vessel attacks reported in the strait this month. Brent settled at $91.3 Tuesday (+0.5% d/d), its highest since Jul 30, in a fourth consecutive session of gains after adding roughly 4.5% over the prior three sessions (Bloomberg). WTI settled at $85.1 (+0.7%), having touched $85.37 Monday, its highest since Jul 31. The driver is the absence of diplomacy rather than any single new incident: President Trump stated Tuesday there are no ongoing negotiations with Tehran, confirming the US naval blockade remains in effect, two days after the June 17 MoU formally expired with no extension. Trump also claimed the waterway is open and its mines cleared -- a claim shipping data does not support, with only limited traffic still passing. Iranian forces have intensified hostilities over the past week: eight attacks on vessels transiting Hormuz have been reported so far this month, including ships linked to the UAE and Saudi Arabia; UK maritime authorities reported a vessel attacked while leaving the strait, suffering engine-room damage and a crew casualty. Countervailing threads GEF continues to flag: Gulf producers are finding alternative ways to maintain exports despite the disruption, and API industry data showed US crude inventories fell only 328,000 barrels last week after the prior week's 9.07 million barrel build. Jake Sullivan, former US national security adviser, told Bloomberg that Trump will at some point have "to bite the bullet and do a bad deal" with Iran. GEF's own AIS audit continues to show the Hormuz persistent core present. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — with the MoU expired and Washington confirming no talks are underway, there is now no active diplomatic channel of any kind for the first time in months.

Aug 20Day 173 — the UAE suspends ALL financial and economic transactions with Iran after accusing Tehran of firing ballistic missiles at its territory; Brent settles $91.62, its highest since Jul 24, on a fourth straight session of gains. The escalation is now economic as well as military. The UAE's decision is a significant break: it has historically been one of Iran's most important regional trade partners and a major conduit for Iranian goods, and cutting financial channels removes one of the few remaining pressure valves in Tehran's regional economy. Brent settled $91.62 Wednesday (+0.7%, +60c) and WTI $85.83 (+1.1%, +89c), both their highest closes since Jul 24. Trump said there are no ongoing negotiations with Tehran while confirming the naval blockade remains in effect -- though he added he would be open to resuming talks "at some point" and maintained oil continues to flow through the waterway. Eight attacks on vessels transiting Hormuz have been reported so far this month, including UAE- and Saudi-linked ships. Ahmad Assiri of Pepperstone reads Brent above $91 as traders pricing a higher risk premium, with a path back to three digits. Separately, Russian crude shipments from western ports fell to about 2.3 million bpd in the first half of August, roughly 15% below the loading plan, on Novorossiysk disruptions. On the domestic side GEF continues to hold both threads rather than resolving them: EIA data (w/e Aug 14) showed US crude inventories ROSE 4.4 million barrels to 428.8 million -- a second consecutive build easing tight-supply concerns -- with refinery utilization up a point to 97.2%, while distillates drew 1.5 million barrels to their lowest in over a month, now 13% below the five-year average. Gulf producers continue moving significant volumes via alternative routes and discreet shipments. GEF's own AIS audit continues to show the Hormuz persistent core present. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — the diplomatic track remains frozen, and the pressure campaign has now widened from military and naval measures into the regional financial system.

Aug 21Day 174 — Trump announces a sweeping package of economic measures targeting Iran covering banks, shipping registries, cash transfers and smuggling networks, a day after the UAE cut all financial ties; Brent rises to $93.01, its highest since Jul 24, on pace for a 5%+ weekly gain. The pressure campaign has widened decisively into the financial system on two fronts in as many days. Trump's package is aimed at cutting Tehran off from international financial and commercial channels, with Washington saying it seeks to intensify economic pressure and push Iran toward negotiations over the conflict, its nuclear programme and control of the strait. It lands a day after the UAE suspended all financial and economic transactions with Iran, having accused Tehran of launching ballistic missiles at its territory. Brent rose to $93.01 (+1.52%) and WTI to $86.16 (+2.09%), both their highest since Jul 24. Trump said oil continues to flow through the waterway and that he would be open to resuming talks with Tehran "at some point." GEF continues to hold two countervailing threads rather than resolving them: Gulf producers have kept transporting significant volumes of crude through alternative routes and discreet shipments, and EIA data (w/e Aug 14) showed crude inventories rose 4.4 million barrels. But the product picture is tightening even as crude loosens -- distillate stocks fell 1.5 million barrels to their lowest in more than a month, now 13% below the five-year average, and Energy Intelligence reports record-high US jet fuel exports could start to wither as a mounting diesel shortage pushes diesel margins above aviation fuel. The gap between crude futures and physical barrels has widened to more than $5 through much of August. GEF's own AIS audit continues to show the Hormuz persistent core present. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — the escalation is now primarily economic, and the physical picture at the strait remains unchanged on GEF's own tracking.

Aug 22Day 175 — the physical picture deteriorates even as crude eases: weekly transits fall to 73 from 91, the June MoU window expires with no successor, and 86% of crude-laden tankers are sailing dark. This is the first day in weeks where the market and the waterway moved in opposite directions, and the waterway is the one that matters here. Lloyd’s List Intelligence counts 73 transits for 10–16 August, down from 91 the previous week — a 20% week-on-week fall against a pre-war baseline near 130 per day, and the clearest evidence yet that the partial mid-August recovery has reversed. The 60-day window opened by the 17 June Memorandum of Understanding expired on 17 August with no final agreement and no successor framework: the diplomatic track is now formally empty rather than merely stalled. Kpler data reported via CNN shows 72 of 84 crude-laden tankers (86%) transiting since 7 July sailed dark, most using the UN-authorised Omani corridor — which means published counts understate true flow, but also that owners will only transit unobserved, a distinction GEF treats as a measure of confidence rather than of volume. CENTCOM reports 64 vessels redirected, 3 disabled and 2 boarded as of 17 August; the Joint Maritime Information Center counts 1,010 US-facilitated transits since the MoU was signed, and the US military says it has escorted more than 660 million barrels through the strait since early May. Crude eased on the day but held its weekly gain: Brent settled at about $93.40 (−0.3%) and WTI at about $86.30 (−0.55%), both up 5–6% on the week in a second consecutive weekly advance. The forward catalyst is Monday, when Washington is expected to detail an “economic D-day” package aimed at severing Iran from banking, shipping registries and cash-transfer networks. GEF’s own AIS audit (Aug 22 AM) reads the Bandar Abbas / Qeshm frame as dominated by Iranian-flag coastal traffic rather than international transit — independently consistent with the 73-transit count. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — and for the first time this month the transit trend itself is pointing DOWN, not merely flat.

Aug 23Day 176 — the clearest measure yet of how little is moving: 236 vessels crossed in the first 19 days of August, roughly a tenth of the pre-war norm, and about a fifth of energy cargoes are transiting openly on Iran’s terms. A quiet Sunday on the tape, with crude closed, but the week’s data settles a question this page has been circling for a fortnight. Al Jazeera’s review of transit records counts 236 vessels across 1–19 August, about 12 a day against a pre-war norm near 130. Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded 73 transits in the week to 16 August, down from 91; Kpler logged 12 and 10 successful crossings on the Monday and Tuesday of that week. So the rate is neither collapsing further nor recovering — it has settled at roughly a tenth of normal, which is now the operating baseline rather than a temporary trough. The composition is the more revealing part. Roughly a fifth of energy-carrying ships transit openly via the Iranian-designated route, accepting Tehran’s navigation protocols as the price of passage; energy researcher Marc Ayoub reports Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait moving cargoes through the Omani corridor with tracking switched off and via ship-to-ship transfers. Both routes are ways of moving oil without conceding anything publicly, and both mean every transit count on this site should be read as a floor. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has made the same point from the opposite direction, arguing flows are higher than tracking services capture — GEF accepts that as a fair caveat and applies it consistently. CNN separately reports GPS spoofing as an ongoing problem around both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, degrading the same data further. Diplomatically the position hardened rather than moved: with the 17 June MoU expired and no successor, parliament speaker Ghalibaf restated Iran’s conditions for reopening as the lifting of oil sanctions and an end to US military threats. Trump’s promised “economic D-day” — naming oil smuggling, swap lines, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries and front companies, with secondary sanctions threatened against third countries — has produced no executive order and no designation list, and no timeline was given; GEF logs it as announced intent, not policy, and will move it only when Treasury publishes. Foreign minister Araghchi dismissed it as a diversion, and Kpler estimates Tehran already holds about four months of export revenue outside the blockade, which bounds how quickly any financial measure could bite. GEF AIS (Aug 23 AM): the Bandar Abbas / Qeshm frame is again dominated by Iranian-flag coastal names (MIR MAHNA, YOUSHAT, ATEELA 1 and 2, BAVAN, HEDAYATKASHTI202, GOLSHAN) rather than international transit traffic; at Bab el-Mandeb GEF counts nine satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contacts this morning, up on yesterday — vessels visible to satellite but not to terrestrial receivers, consistent with both the spoofing reports and the dark-transit pattern. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — traffic flat at roughly a tenth of normal, with the diplomatic track empty.

Aug 24Day 177 — the “economic D-day” arrives, and crude falls 1.4% to meet it. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted that “at dawn begins an economic D-Day — the single greatest financial offensive ever marshaled against an adversary,” and is due to unveil the package later in the session. As of this update OFAC has published nothing: its recent-actions feed still shows 20 August as the last Iran-related designation, which predates the announcement. GEF continues to log this as ANNOUNCED, NOT ENACTED, and will move it the moment Treasury publishes a list — the distinction matters because this page has now carried the promise for four days without a document behind it. The market’s response is the more interesting datum. Brent fell about 1.4% to ~$93.09 and WTI about 1.6% to ~$85.65, giving back part of a 5%+ weekly gain, and Tehran publicly dismissed the threat. Crude falling INTO the toughest-ever sanctions announcement is a statement about mechanism: traders expect the package to constrain Iranian revenue rather than Iranian oil flow, and it is flow, not revenue, that sets the price. Kpler’s estimate that Tehran already holds roughly four months of export revenue outside the blockade points the same way — financial measures bite on a lag longer than the market’s horizon, while a single tanker strike moves the price the same afternoon. Commonwealth Bank of Australia frames the asymmetry usefully, holding Brent in a $70–$100 range for the second half and noting prices could fall toward the bottom of it on even a modest recovery in Hormuz flows. Read together: the upside case for oil is a sanctions story, the downside case is a transit story, and transit is the one neither side fully controls. The physical position is unchanged — 236 transits across 1–19 August at about 12 a day against a ~130/day pre-war norm, 73 in the week to 16 August against 91 the week before, the 17 June MoU expired with no successor, and roughly a fifth of energy cargoes moving openly on Iran’s terms with most of the rest dark. GEF AIS (Aug 24 AM): the Bandar Abbas / Qeshm frame is again Iranian-flag coastal traffic (MIR MAHNA, HEDAYATKASHTI202, MARAL, MARIVAN, BAVAN, DAHAB) with no international transit queue visible; Bab el-Mandeb shows eight satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contacts, consistent with the past three mornings. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — the escalation today is financial, and the waterway has not moved.

Aug 25Day 178 — “Operation Economic Outcast” is enacted, and crude falls 2.5% on the announcement itself — because the package spared the Chinese banks that buy most Iranian oil. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent launched the campaign at a Monday press conference: roughly 60 individuals, entities and vessels designated across the UAE, Hong Kong, China, Singapore and Switzerland, new OFAC authorities covering Iran’s digital-asset, technology, gold, aviation and shipping sectors, and secondary sanctions threatened against foreign persons who continue dealing with Tehran. Countries were given a defined but unspecified timeline to sever links or face unilateral action, and President Trump is telephoning leaders with specific requests to cease trading. GEF moves this from ANNOUNCED to ENACTED. The critical omission is what the package left out. No major Chinese bank was designated, and Bessent declined to say whether one would be. China is the primary purchaser of Iranian crude; leaving its banks untouched leaves the main artery open, and analysts quoted by CNN noted the US has never gone hard on economic sanctions against China. The market read it instantly and brutally. Crude had already fallen about 1.4% into the announcement on Monday morning; it then fell a further 2.5% on it, Brent settling at $92.06 and WTI at $84.89 — the largest single-day fall this month, on the day of the toughest sanctions campaign ever mounted against Iran. Tuesday brought only a 0.3% bounce, to roughly $92.40 Brent and $85.40 WTI. This page has argued since Day 175 that sanctions constrain Iranian revenue while price is set by flow, and that the two operate on different timescales. The tape has now confirmed that reading twice over — once in anticipation, once on the detail. Iran’s Ghalibaf dismissed the campaign, saying Washington is not in an economic position to restrict other countries’ relations. Two developments cut the other way and are worth watching. Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority has warned that vessels violating its transit rules face fines, seizure or confiscation — a direct threat to the roughly one-fifth of energy cargoes now moving openly on the Iranian-designated route, and the mechanism by which a financial escalation could become a physical one. And reports cited by TradingEconomics put around 16 million barrels crossing the waterway in a single night last week, well above GEF’s tracked counts; if accurate it reinforces the standing caveat that every transit figure on this site is a floor rather than a total. Bessent said at least one major financial institution should expect designation by the end of this week — whether that institution is Chinese is the question that decides whether this campaign touches flow at all. The tracked physical picture is unchanged: 236 transits across 1–19 August, about 12 a day against a ~130/day pre-war norm; 73 in the week to 16 August against 91; the 17 June MoU expired with no successor. GEF AIS (Aug 25 AM): Bandar Abbas / Qeshm remains Iranian-flag coastal traffic (MIR MAHNA, HAMD, MARAL, MARIVAN, BAVAN, DAHAB); at Bab el-Mandeb GEF counts just three satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contacts this morning, down sharply from eight to nine on each of the previous four mornings — flagged, but not interpreted, because one morning is not a trend. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — the financial escalation landed, and the waterway did not move.

Aug 26Day 179 — the war premium unwinds: crude falls a third straight session to more than 8% below Friday, and Iran resumes talks with Oman on a temporary navigational corridor and mine clearance. Brent fell 2.6% to about $86.20 and WTI 2.5% to about $80.30, after closes of $92.06 on Monday and $87.12 on Tuesday. Neither driver is a supply event, and that is the point. The first is that “Operation Economic Outcast” landed softer than the market had priced: no wind-down deadline was set, the major Chinese banks were spared, and Washington threatened secondary sanctions on Iran’s trading partners rather than imposing them. The second is diplomatic and larger. Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, flew to Tehran on Monday for a one-day mission and did not confine himself to officials — he saw President Pezeshkian, parliament speaker and chief negotiator Ghalibaf, and security council figure Rezaei, reportedly carrying a proposal on sanctions relief under the existing Islamabad memorandum. Qatar says its mediation continues, Oman’s foreign minister is working separately on navigation rules for the strait, and word circulated that Washington may return evacuated diplomats to the region — the item traders seized on, on the straightforward logic that diplomats do not return to a capital you are about to bomb. Today’s material development is the concrete one: Iran says it has resumed talks with Oman on managing traffic through the strait, with the two discussing a temporary navigational corridor and the clearing of mines. That is the first actual mechanism for a partial reopening to appear in this timeline, and it is why the market is repricing rather than merely drifting. GEF is not moving the board, for three reasons. A tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile near Oman’s Ash Shishah, close to the strait entrance, today — UKMTO reported the incident, and it is a reminder that the security risk has not gone anywhere. Iran’s principals are not folding: Rezaei told Munir that Iran distrusts America and that America must change its behaviour, Ghalibaf said Tehran still holds to the Islamabad memorandum and that Washington must honour its commitments, and Pezeshkian warned that relying on force and bullying will only complicate things. And the physical position is unchanged — 236 transits across 1–19 August, about 12 a day against a ~130/day pre-war norm. Iran’s own export data shows how far there is to come back: August crude exports averaging roughly 0.3 million b/d against a 2025 average of 1.7 million, with a single confirmed loading at Kharg Island, while Chinese imports of Iranian barrels run near 0.8 million b/d only by drawing down stocks and are set to fall further next month. Talks about a corridor are not a corridor. This board moves on confirmed transit recovery, not on mediation headlines — and it is worth recording plainly that a page tracking a crisis has an obvious incentive to resist good news, which is exactly why the standard is a number rather than a judgement. GEF AIS (Aug 26 AM): Bandar Abbas / Qeshm again shows Iranian-flag coastal traffic with no international transit queue; at Bab el-Mandeb GEF counts roughly twelve satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contacts, sharply up from three yesterday and back above last week’s eight-to-nine — the single-day drop flagged on Day 178 has reversed, which is why it was flagged rather than read as a trend. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — the price moved, the waterway did not.

Aug 27Day 180 — six months to the day, and the first genuine agreement of the crisis: Iran and Oman agree a temporary corridor. It is not a reopening, and GEF holds the board. Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tehran and Muscat have agreed a temporary maritime route through the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign ministers Abbas Araghchi and Badr Albusaidi met in Tehran and issued a joint statement covering both the corridor and a mine-clearing project; Albusaidi wrote that he hoped the two would “soon announce” it, with future management and a permanent solution to follow under Article 5 of the Islamabad Memorandum. The geometry is the story. Inbound traffic from the Gulf of Oman would pass through Iranian territorial waters, outbound through Iranian or Omani waters — bypassing the IMO Traffic Separation Scheme that has governed the strait since 1968. A 30- to 60-day window is set for negotiating a permanent route, with technical talks on information-sharing, traffic management and navigational security. The IRGC went further than the diplomats: spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said agreements had been reached on each country’s share of the strait’s waters and its revenues. Oman has not publicly endorsed that framing, and it is worth stating plainly what it would mean — a permanent Iranian toll position on a waterway that carried a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil before February. GEF holds at CRITICAL, on the standard this page set yesterday rather than one invented today. Gharibabadi himself warned the waterway will not fully reopen until Washington honours its commitments under the June memorandum — the memorandum that lapsed on 17 August. Iran’s foreign ministry has said before that a bilateral deal with Oman “cannot in itself be interpreted as meaning the waterway has become safe for passing vessels.” The mines are scheduled for clearing, not cleared. It is unresolved whether Washington accepts an arrangement that excludes it. And the transit count has not moved. Crude priced it as real but partial: a fourth consecutive session of declines, Brent toward $87 and WTI toward $81, with the week’s drop past 7%. One claim to treat with caution. President Trump said around 10 million barrels of oil passed through Hormuz on Tuesday and repeated that the mines have been cleared. This page flagged the same class of claim on Day 170, when the 9 million bpd assertion sat well above every independent estimate; 10 million barrels in a single day cannot be reconciled with 236 transits across the first 19 days of August. Satellite data does suggest Saudi Arabia is lifting loadings from Gulf terminals, which is exactly the kind of evidence that would eventually surface as a rising transit count — and that is the number GEF will move on. GEF AIS (Aug 27 AM): the Bandar Abbas / Qeshm frame is thinner than usual and still Iranian-flag coastal (MARAL, MARIVAN, CASPIA, DAHAB, BARIN 313), with no international transit queue forming; Bab el-Mandeb shows four satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contacts, down from about twelve yesterday. That count has now run 3, 12, 4 across three mornings — which is precisely why this page logs it and refuses to read a trend into it. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — an agreement is not a corridor, and a corridor is not a transit.

Aug 28Day 181 — an independent count lands: eight crossings in 24 hours, two of them dark, and three vessels that turned back at the entrance. It corroborates this page’s numbers and corrects its framing. Windward’s Maritime Intelligence Operations Center recorded eight vessels completing the Hormuz crossing in the 24 hours to 21:00 UTC on 26 August — five outbound, three inbound. GEF has been tracking roughly 12 a day against a ~130/day pre-war norm; an outside count of eight sits squarely inside that picture, which is the first proper external check this page has had on its own transit numbers. Two of the eight transited dark via the northern corridor with no AIS correlation — one inbound at roughly 185m, one outbound at about 87m. That is direct observational support for the caveat GEF attaches to every transit figure it publishes: these counts are a floor, not a total. The more interesting number is the one that did not transit. Three further vessels reversed course or held outside the strait during the same window and were excluded from the total, and Windward logs a Panama-flagged product tanker turning back at the northern corridor as the thirteenth such reversal since 23 July. A reversal series measures captains changing their minds at the entrance — a cleaner read on perceived risk than any completed-transit count, because it captures the decisions that a throughput figure never sees. GEF is adopting it as a tracked metric. On yesterday’s agreement, the independent read is more careful than GEF’s was. Windward describes the 25 August Tehran meeting as opening a phased framework for a temporary joint navigation corridor, including a joint mine-clearing project, with technical talks continuing toward a permanent corridor and traffic-management mechanism and no announcement date set. This page recorded it yesterday as agreed, on Iranian deputy-foreign-minister sourcing. The framework characterisation is the better one and this page now carries it — noted plainly rather than quietly amended, because the distinction between a framework and a corridor is exactly what this board turns on. Also on 25 August, Windward observed a roughly 4km oil-spill trail behind a dark vessel in the strait’s southern approaches. The slick is assessed as limited and likely to dissipate, but the site lies within about 55km of desalination infrastructure serving several hundred thousand people — the environmental exposure in this crisis runs through drinking water, not only through cargo. Crude steadied: Brent ~$88.22, down 0.34% after four sessions of losses. For the recovery path, the EIA’s August Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent averaging about $85/b in Q3 2026 and $78/b in Q4, with most shut-in regional production restored in Q1 2027 but residual disruption near 0.6m b/d persisting through the end of 2027 — even the official de-escalation case does not return this waterway to normal inside the year. GEF AIS (Aug 28 AM, full five-chokepoint sweep): Hormuz sparse and still Iranian-flag coastal (HAMD, MARAL, MARIVAN, CASPIA, DAHAB, HASNA) with no international transit queue; Bab el-Mandeb moderate with about five satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contacts; Malacca dense and entirely normal, the Singapore approaches congested as usual; Panama normal; Suez dense with its usual Gulf of Suez queue. That contrast is worth stating: four of the five chokepoints this site tracks are operating normally today, and one is not. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL.

Aug 29Day 182 — the two measures split: vessel counts fall to five on Tuesday against a ten-day average of fifteen, while Goldman estimates Gulf exports have recovered to two-thirds of pre-war. Both are true, and GEF is qualifying its own headline framing accordingly. On the count, the picture deteriorated. Kpler data reported by Reuters recorded five commodity vessels moving in either direction on Tuesday — two LPG tankers and one bitumen carrier outbound, two empty product tankers inbound — roughly the same as Monday and well below the ten-day average of fifteen. Windward shows the count declining steadily since 22 August, down from as many as 20 inbound, 14 outbound and at least three dark transits. On volume, the opposite: Goldman Sachs estimates Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to roughly 15–16 million barrels a day, about two-thirds of the pre-conflict 22–24 million and far above the March trough of 5–6 million. The reconciliation is the dark-shuttle trade — Fortune described it on 16 August as running at full tilt: crude moved through the strait undetected and transferred onto tankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman. This page has said since Day 175 that its transit counts are a floor rather than a total. Goldman’s estimate is the first credible measure of how large that gap has become, and it is large enough that “a tenth of normal” is accurate for vessels observed and materially wrong for barrels moved. GEF now states both, because publishing only the first would overstate the supply disruption and publishing only the second would understate the operational one. The distinction has a real victim. The grey fleet transits nightly; an oil major with compliance obligations, war-risk cover to renew and a flag state to answer to does not. The strait is functionally open to operators willing to go dark and functionally closed to everyone else — which is a different crisis from the one a single headline number describes, and arguably a worse one for the structure of the market. Diplomatically the week ended worse than it began. The Wall Street Journal reports the Trump administration has repeatedly told mediators it has no interest in reviving the June memorandum, and Washington confirmed on Thursday it is not in talks with Iran. So the Iran–Oman track advances while the US–Iran track is formally shut — and Tehran has said throughout that a full reopening requires Washington, not Muscat. Crude read the whole picture as bearish: Brent settled Friday at $89.31, down 0.43% on the day and more than 5% on the week; WTI settled $83.40, down over 4% on the week. A rate-rise signal from Fed chair Kevin Warsh added to the move. GEF AIS (Aug 29 AM): Hormuz sparse and Iranian-flag coastal (YOUSHAT, MARAL, MARIVAN, BAVAN, DAHAB, HASNA) with no transit queue; Bab el-Mandeb quiet with a single satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contact, the lowest this week after a 3–12–4 run; Suez dense and normal. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — on vessel access, which is what this rating has always measured, and which this page will now say explicitly rather than leave implied.

Aug 30Day 183 — a correction against this page’s own headline number, and it runs toward good news: Lloyd’s List recorded 114 transits in the week to 23 August, up more than 50% from the 73 GEF was still publishing as current. This site has been carrying “73 transits, down from 91” as the latest full week since 22 August. Lloyd’s List Intelligence has since published the following week and it went the other way: 114 transits between 17 and 23 August, an increase of more than 50%, with the rise led by tankers and gas carriers and at least 42 westbound entries against 29 the week prior. Lloyd’s tracked crude tankers from Sinokor and ADNOC alongside Saudi- and Kuwaiti-owned vessels — named commercial operators, not only grey-fleet traffic, which matters because it is compliant tonnage returning rather than dark tonnage substituting. The 73 figure was correct when published and had gone two weeks stale on this page. It is corrected here in the open rather than quietly swapped: a tracker whose subject is a disruption has an obvious incentive to emphasise the disruption, and the only defence against that is to correct upward as visibly as downward. The board still holds, on the standard set before this number arrived. GEF said it would move on a confirmed and sustained rise in observable transits. This was confirmed but not sustained: Kpler data reported by Reuters put the Monday and Tuesday of the following week at roughly five vessels a day against a ten-day average of fifteen, and Windward shows the count declining since 22 August. The shape is a spike followed by a fall back — 114 is real, and it is not yet a trend. Three further reasons to hold. The bulk carrier MT Al Salam II was struck while transiting on Thursday 27 August, per a Combined Maritime Forces Joint Maritime Information Center advisory. Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated explicitly that Tehran does not consider the strait open despite the Oman agreement, and dismissed President Trump’s claim that all mines had been cleared as “only aimed at calming the markets” — vindicating the caution this page applied to that claim on Day 180. And Iran has restated that reopening follows a US withdrawal of the naval blockade, not a bilateral arrangement with Muscat. New corridor detail: Gharibabadi puts the agreed temporary route at seven miles (11.3km) wide, with entry and part of the exit running through Iranian territorial waters, and a 30- to 60-day window to negotiate something permanent. For scale, the strait is 34km across at its narrowest and its two conventional lanes carried roughly 20 million barrels a day before the war. Crude is closed for the weekend: Brent holds Friday’s $89.31 settle and WTI $83.40, both down 4–5% on the week. GEF AIS (Aug 30 AM): Bandar Abbas / Qeshm still Iranian-flag coastal; Bab el-Mandeb shows about seven satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contacts, up from one yesterday — the week now reads 3, 12, 4, 1, 7, which is exactly why this page logs the count and declines to read a trend into it. One curiosity worth recording: a contact in the Hormuz frame this morning broadcasts the vessel name “GPS GOD”, almost certainly a spoofed identifier rather than a ship — a small live illustration of the AIS integrity problem reported around both chokepoints. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — but the transit trend is now genuinely ambiguous, and this page will say so.

Aug 31Day 184 — the US strikes Iranian rocket launchers preparing to LAY mines, in the same waterway Tehran is negotiating to DE-MINE. Crude reverses back above $90 and a week of de-escalation pricing unwinds in a session. US Central Command spokesman Captain Tim Hawkins said the US military struck Iranian rocket launchers that were preparing to send mines into the strait on Sunday, ending what Bloomberg called weeks of relative calm. Read that against the past week and the contradiction is stark. The temporary corridor Iran and Oman agreed on 25–26 August has a joint mine-clearing project as its headline feature. Tehran was preparing to lay mines in the same waterway it is negotiating to clear. GEF does not know which of those represents Iranian intent, and will not pretend otherwise: the two are incompatible, and the corridor cannot be assessed as credible until it is resolved. The market did not wait — Brent for November rose above $90 and WTI to near $86, reversing most of last week’s 5% decline after four consecutive sessions of unwinding. This is the clearest vindication so far of holding the board through the corridor news. On Day 180 this page wrote that talks are not a corridor; on Day 183 that a spike is not a trend. A single Sunday strike has undone a week of repricing, which is precisely the fragility that a diplomacy-driven rating would have missed. New structural data, and the most authoritative volume series yet published. The EIA’s August Short-Term Energy Outlook estimates crude and petroleum liquids through Hormuz averaged 4.9 million b/d in Q2 2026, against 21.6 million b/d in Q4 2025 before the conflict — about 23% of pre-war, measured in barrels rather than hulls, and a useful third reading alongside the vessel counts and Goldman’s export estimate. Production shut-ins averaged 5.5 million b/d in July. And Bab el-Mandeb went the other way: 8.1 million b/d in Q2 against 5.4 million in Q4 2025, as Saudi Arabia rerouted crude through the East–West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea. That is the interconnection this site exists to show — relieving one chokepoint loads another, which is why the Houthi blockade threat against Saudi shipping at Bab el-Mandeb belongs in the same analysis rather than a separate one. Separate reporting puts 6–8 million b/d moving through Hormuz now, above the Q2 average and consistent with the partial recovery Lloyd’s and Goldman have both described. GEF AIS (Aug 31 AM): Bandar Abbas / Qeshm still Iranian-flag coastal; Bab el-Mandeb around eight satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contacts. The spoofed identifier “GPS GOD” logged yesterday is still broadcasting in the Hormuz frame this morning — a persistent fake contact rather than a one-off glitch, and a standing reminder that AIS-derived counts on this site are evidence rather than truth. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL.

Sep 1Day 185 — open combat resumes: the US strikes Larak Island, Iran fires ballistic missiles at US bases in Jordan and attacks the UAE, and a supertanker burns after striking two mines. Brent reaches $91.28. And a viral claim that Kharg Island was destroyed turns out to rest on an AI-generated video. US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island near the strait — launchers the IRGC was preparing to use to fire rockets carrying sea mines into the waterway. The IRGC says the strike killed and injured its soldiers, and Iran retaliated with ballistic missiles against two US bases in Jordan and with attacks on the UAE. It is the first direct US–Iran military exchange since late July, and it has unwound the entire de-escalation trade: Brent is at ~$91.28 and WTI ~$86.57, up around 9% on the month, having been down 5% on the week as recently as Friday. The physical risk is not theoretical. A supertanker caught fire in the strait after striking two naval mines. The IRGC said the vessel had attempted to cross the southern part of the strait “illegally” — which is Tehran asserting a right to designate lawful routes through an international waterway, and enforcing that assertion with mines. CENTCOM separately states that international shipping lanes are open and that mines laid in the strait have been successfully cleared. Those two accounts cannot both be complete. GEF reports both and resolves neither, because the evidence to resolve it does not exist in public. One claim to discount, and it is instructive. A video posted to Truth Social on Sunday night captioned “Kharg Island being blown to smithereens!!!” is AI-generated. CENTCOM has reported no strike on Kharg and Iran’s state oil company dismissed the claim. This page logs it as an unverified assertion accompanied by synthetic imagery rather than as an event — the same treatment applied to the 9m bpd flow claim on Day 170 and the mine-clearing claim on Day 180. It is worth naming plainly that verifying whether a widely shared image is real has now become part of tracking this conflict. Kharg would matter enormously if it were struck: it handles about 90% of Iranian crude exports, with 7m b/d of loading capacity and 30m barrels of storage, and roughly 80% of its shipments go to China. Kpler already puts Kharg exports at 135,000 b/d in August against 1.98m b/d in February — a 93% collapse under the naval blockade reimposed in mid-July, so the terminal is already close to idle without any strike at all. A dated forward target, the first of the conflict: Axios reports the US hopes to widen the strait’s main channel by mid-September so that at least 50 ships can transit nightly, restoring 60–70% of pre-war oil exports. That is a specific, falsifiable objective, and GEF will test it against its own transit counts rather than against announcements. Treasury Secretary Bessent says secondary sanctions will now follow every week, starting with banks — which finally puts the Chinese-bank question this page raised on Day 178 on a schedule. Gulf producers including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq are still exporting some volumes through the strait. GEF AIS (Sep 1 AM): Bandar Abbas / Qeshm still Iranian-flag coastal; Bab el-Mandeb around six satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contacts; the spoofed identifier “GPS GOD” is broadcasting for a third consecutive morning. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — and for the first time since the corridor talks began, the risk is skewed toward further escalation rather than recovery.

Sep 2Day 186 — a third independent transit series lands, and all three now tell the same story: IMF PortWatch logs 84 crossings for 27 July to 2 August against 45 the week before. A consolidation day after Monday’s exchange, and the useful work is in the measurement rather than the news. GEF now tracks three independent counts of the same waterway: PortWatch at 84 transits for 27 Jul–2 Aug (up from 45), Lloyd’s List Intelligence at 114 for 17–23 August (up from 73), and Kpler at roughly five vessels a day in the week after. They were gathered independently and they describe the same shape: a real recovery through August, a fall back in the final week, then the Larak strike. That convergence matters more than any single figure, because it is the first time this page can say the trend is corroborated rather than asserted. The scepticism cuts both ways, and it should. Maritime analysts have publicly challenged White House transit arithmetic, with one noting that claims of 15–20 vessels a day do not reconcile with published port data. GEF has applied the same test to official claims twice in the past fortnight — the 9m bpd assertion on Day 170 and the AI-generated Kharg video yesterday — and applies it here too: no source on this page, official or otherwise, is exempt from reconciliation against the counts. The Congressional Research Service sets the structural stakes plainly: roughly 25% of the world’s seaborne crude and 19% of LNG moved through this strait in 2025; Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline can carry about 7m b/d to the Red Sea, and the UAE’s Abu Dhabi line reaches the Gulf of Oman. Those two pipelines are the only meaningful bypasses, and both terminate in waters that are themselves contested — which is why Bab el-Mandeb absorbing the diversion compounds the problem rather than relieving it. On gas, the week’s clear good news. EU storage reached 65.39% on the 1 September GIE direct read (739.10 TWh), up 2.11 points in seven days — an injection pace near +0.30pp/day against the +0.24 needed for the relaxed 80% target, projecting to about 83.8% by 1 November. That is a seventh consecutive on-pace week, and the gap to the ~82% five-year norm has narrowed to about 16.6 points from roughly 19. Europe will probably make its target; it will do so from the lowest base since records began in 2011, and both halves of that sentence belong together. GEF AIS (Sep 2 AM): Bandar Abbas / Qeshm still Iranian-flag coastal (MARAL, MARIVAN, BARIN 313, AZARKHSH 908, DAHAB, HASNA); Bab el-Mandeb shows about nine satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contacts, the highest of the week. The spoofed identifier “GPS GOD” is broadcasting for a fourth consecutive morning. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL.

Sep 3Day 187 — the widest gap yet between official claims and countable data: the US Energy Secretary says 17 million barrels transited on Monday; Kpler counted ten vessels, then four on Tuesday. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said more than 17 million barrels of oil transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, which he described as the highest daily volume since the war began — a figure close to the roughly 20 million b/d pre-war norm. On the same days, Kpler counted ten commodity vessels transiting on Monday and four on Tuesday, below the ten-day average. Both numbers can be literally true, and that is worth saying plainly. Ten fully laden VLCCs carry roughly 20 million barrels, so the arithmetic is not impossible. But it would require essentially every Monday transit to be a laden supertanker, which no independent series supports, and it sits against IMF PortWatch (84 transits for 27 July–2 August), Lloyd’s List Intelligence (114 for 17–23 August) and the EIA’s own Short-Term Energy Outlook estimate of 4.9 million b/d for the second quarter. GEF records the claim, records the counts, and does not reconcile them. This page applied the same treatment to the 9m bpd assertion on Day 170 and to the AI-generated Kharg video on Day 185; consistency requires applying it again to a claim that happens to be favourable. A reader should treat 17 million as an unverified official assertion rather than a measurement — and if it is later corroborated by a tracking service, this page will say so as prominently. The escalation itself is not in doubt. Two oil tankers were attacked in the strait. The US military launched fresh strikes on Iranian targets around it, which President Trump said were retaliation for Tehran’s attempts to lay mines in the waterway and for an earlier attack on a US base. Trump threatened a significantly larger response if Iran retaliates; a senior Iranian military source said Tehran’s answer would be “many times greater”, warning that bases across the region could quickly come under fire. Iran says it has already responded by targeting US bases and firing missiles toward Jordan. Brent rose about 5% on Tuesday and held near $95 on Wednesday — a six-week high, up roughly 13% on the month — with WTI near $90. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Iran’s bankruptcy is in the “acceleration phase”. A second front opened on Russian export infrastructure: a major Ukrainian drone attack set fire to the Ust-Luga oil export terminal on the Baltic. The campaign that has already removed roughly a quarter of Russian refining capacity is now reaching export terminals, which matters directly for the European refined-product market this site has flagged as structurally short since July. GEF AIS (Sep 3 AM): Bandar Abbas / Qeshm remains Iranian-flag coastal (MARAL, ATEELA 2, DEVREZ, BAVAN, DAHAB, HASNA) with a single satellite-only contact in frame; Bab el-Mandeb shows about five. The spoofed identifier “GPS GOD” has stopped broadcasting after four consecutive mornings. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — escalating.

Sep 4Day 188 — the 17-million-barrel claim gets a mechanism: a 40-vessel US-escorted convoy carried about 18 million barrels on Tuesday. It is a spike, not a rate. And the US begins striking Iranian tankers tanker-for-tanker. Yesterday this page recorded the Energy Secretary’s 17-million-barrel claim and Kpler’s count of ten vessels, and reconciled neither. Today CNN, citing two US officials, supplies the missing piece: the US military escorted 40 commercial vessels carrying about 18 million barrels through the strait on Tuesday, described as a wartime high. Forty hulls under escort in a day can carry that volume, so the figure is plausible and this page says so. What it is not is a rate. Independent estimates put crude shipments at an average near 8 million b/d even with convoys running — against roughly 20 million pre-war — and CNN’s own industry sources are blunt: “even if the daily spikes in shipping volume are legitimate, I don’t know anyone who thinks the average is that much,” with one adding that the administration “has not covered itself with credibility” on total-control claims. GEF’s position is updated rather than reversed: the 17m figure describes one escorted day, the working average is about 8m b/d, and commercial shippers are deciding case by case, with charter rates through the strait reported above $500,000 a day. That charter rate is the truest single measure of how open this waterway is — more honest than a transit count, because it prices the risk the counts cannot see. The escalation has a new rule. Axios reports US drones struck Iranian government tankers anchored off Iran’s coast, hitting their engine rooms — the first US strikes on Iranian tankers in retaliation for attacks on transiting ships rather than to enforce the blockade, under a “tanker-for-tanker” policy approved by President Trump. Around 100 targets were hit on Tuesday, including IRGC air defence, radar, mine-laying capability and anti-ship missile launchers. Trump said the attacks would be short-lived, reiterated that the US controls Hormuz, and said he “couldn’t care less” whether Iran signs a reopening agreement. Brent eased 0.4% to about $95.25 on Thursday, snapping a three-day rally, still up roughly 20% on the month. On the US data, a vindication. EIA’s official print for the week to 28 August shows commercial crude down 4.5 million barrels to 424.4 million, the first draw since late July. The API estimate had been −2.6m; GEF held the prior figure rather than plot the estimate, and that was the right call for the second week running. GEF AIS (Sep 4 AM, five-chokepoint sweep): Hormuz remains Iranian-flag coastal with two satellite-only contacts off Bandar Abbas and a small cluster (SALUTE, MERCAN, GWEN) in frame — nothing resembling a 40-vessel convoy visible at capture time, consistent with convoys moving at night; Bab el-Mandeb busier than recent mornings with about five satellite-only contacts and a dozen named vessels; Malacca / Singapore dense and normal; Panama normal; Suez dense with its usual Gulf of Suez queue. Four of five chokepoints operating normally; one is not. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL.

Sep 5Day 189 — the transit discrepancy is explained, and the explanation is that the sources count different categories of vessel. Nobody was lying; the numbers were never measuring the same thing. For three days this page has recorded competing Hormuz figures and declined to reconcile them — the Energy Secretary’s 17 million barrels on Day 187, the 40-vessel escorted convoy on Day 188. OilPrice has now published a reconciliation, and the finding is duller and more useful than either side’s framing. Kpler recorded 11 visible commodity-vessel crossings on Tuesday. Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded roughly 12 transits a day from 26 August through 1 September. The US military’s Joint Maritime Information Center reported 44 US-facilitated vessels over 1–2 September — about 22 a day — while JMIC’s own independent tracking continued to show only single-digit numbers moving in each direction. Those are not competing measurements of one quantity; they are measurements of different quantities. OilPrice’s conclusion is one GEF will adopt verbatim rather than try to improve on: “Washington’s numbers could be wrong; they could be right; they could be close. We don’t know.” That is the honest state of knowledge, and this page has now reached it by three different routes in three days — recording the claim, finding the mechanism, and finally learning why the mechanism and the counts never met. GEF’s working picture is unchanged and better founded: commodity crossings near 11–12 a day, escorted transits roughly double that, and reconstructed Persian Gulf exports of 15–16m b/d against a pre-war 22–24m — still 7–8m b/d short. What none of the counts show is how transit is now obtained. CSIS reports that vessels are coordinating through designated intermediaries, sharing detailed voyage information, in some cases paying additional fees, and moving along preapproved routes closer to Iranian waters — the pattern for most observed transits since 15 March. Read alongside charter rates above $500,000 a day and Iraq’s search for tankers willing to run the strait at all (Bloomberg), the picture is a waterway that functions on Iranian terms for operators willing to meet them, and on US naval escort for those who are not. Neither is a reopening, and the distinction between them is the thing a single transit number can never carry. Brent closed the week near $95.83, up roughly 20% on the month; markets are shut for the weekend. GEF AIS (Sep 5 AM): Bandar Abbas / Qeshm unchanged, Iranian-flag coastal names with no international transit queue in frame. Bab el-Mandeb is notably busy — about twelve satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contacts, the highest count GEF has logged there, alongside a dozen named vessels. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL.

Sep 6Day 190 — weekend consolidation; the working picture stands and two dated events land tomorrow. No new kinetic events reported over the weekend. The position set on Day 189 holds: commodity crossings near 11–12 a day, US-escorted transits roughly double that, reconstructed Persian Gulf exports of 15–16m b/d against a pre-war 22–24m, and passage obtained through intermediaries, fees and preapproved routes closer to Iranian waters. Charter rates above $500,000 a day remain the truest single gauge of how open the waterway is. Brent held ~$95.83 at Friday’s close, up roughly 20% on the month; markets reopen Monday. Two dated events land tomorrow. Canada’s federal fuel excise holiday expires on 7 September with no extension announced, returning 10¢/L on gasoline and 4¢/L on diesel — the first major economy to unwind war-era fuel tax relief since Australia on 2–3 August, and the empirical test of whether Australia’s spike-then-ease pattern repeats. And GEF publishes Issue #40. GEF AIS (Sep 6 AM): Bandar Abbas / Qeshm unchanged, Iranian-flag coastal names with no international transit queue in frame; Bab el-Mandeb about eight satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contacts; Suez dense and normal. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL.

Sep 7Day 191 — the tanker war: IRGC ballistic missiles target a US carrier group, the US disables two Iranian crude carriers and destroys a third, and Tehran promises a “restricted” maritime zone beyond the strait within days. The weekend was not, in fact, quiet — Saturday brought the sharpest naval exchange of the conflict. US Central Command says an aircraft carrier and a guided-missile destroyer evaded multiple Iranian ballistic-missile attacks — the first direct targeting of a US carrier this war — and that in response US forces “permanently disabled” the IRGC crude carriers M/T Downy off Kharg Island and M/T Stark 1 near Jask, and “completely destroyed” the unladen M/T Kylo in the Gulf of Oman, describing the ships as part of a shadow network funding the IRGC. The IRGC says its naval forces targeted three tankers on the “unauthorised route” of the strait and three US-linked vessels, and warned all shipping against routes Tehran has not approved. Parliament speaker and chief negotiator Ghalibaf declared Sunday that “the era of proportionate responses is over.” The forward-looking item is the zone. Tehran says a “restricted” maritime zone beyond the strait will be announced in the coming days — an assertion of route-licensing authority over international waters in the Gulf of Oman, the approaches every transit must still pass. This page’s standing position applies: whether the zone is enforceable matters less than whether underwriters believe it might be, because in March coverage withdrawal closed routes before enforcement did. The zone’s published boundaries and any Lloyd’s market response are this week’s most consequential data points. The market has already voted. Brent settled Friday at $96.28 (+0.8%) and WTI at $91.48 (+0.2%), for weekly gains of 7.6% and nearly 10% respectively — the strongest week since July (Reuters) — and Brent extended toward $97 in Monday Asian trade. US retail diesel set an all-time record $5.85/gal (AAA), above the June 2022 peak. OPEC+ met Sunday and held October output steady, pausing six months of increases. The EU formally joined the US-led sanctions campaign, and VP Vance said the US will not hold peace talks until Iran stops attacking ships. The mid-September “50 ships a night” target recorded on Day 185 now looks unreachable on its own timeline, and GEF will say so plainly if the week confirms it. GEF AIS (Sep 7 AM, five-chokepoint sweep): Hormuz remains Iranian-flag coastal around Bandar Abbas / Qeshm (BARIN 313, MARAL, ATEELA 1/2, CASPIA, DAHAB, HASNA) with a handful of underway contacts mid-strait and no international transit procession; Bab el-Mandeb about seven satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contacts plus a steady named-vessel stream, back near the 8–9 baseline after the ~12 spike flagged Aug 26; Suez heavy and orderly in both directions with a full southern anchorage; Malacca / Singapore dense and normal; Panama normal. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — escalating, and for the first time the escalation is centred on hulls rather than territory.

Sep 8Day 192 — Iran specifies the restricted zone, and names insurance rather than force as the enforcement mechanism. Aramco’s Red Sea Jazan refinery is struck again. Brent closes at a six-week high. The zone has boundaries now. Maj. Gen. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told state television the restricted area will run “from the line where the US naval blockade begins to the Strait of Hormuz region and inside the Persian Gulf on the other side” — enveloping the approaches to the region’s major loading terminals. Vessels entering without coordinating with Tehran go on an Iranian sanctions list, and Rezaei was explicit about what that means: consequences for insurance coverage and future passage rights, not interception. This page said on Day 191 that the zone’s danger lay in the contractual layer rather than the military one, because in March coverage withdrawal closed routes before enforcement did. Tehran has now confirmed underwriters as the intended pressure point. The practical test is no longer whether Iran can police the Gulf of Oman — it is whether the Lloyd’s market treats a listing as a war-risk event. Rezaei’s own transit figures are worth recording, because they are the most extreme claim yet from either side: he says the strait is “completely closed and under the control of the armed forces,” that pre-war traffic of more than 100 ships a day has collapsed to seven or eight vessels daily carrying only Iranian essentials, and that Trump’s description of an open waterway is a “big lie.” CENTCOM’s counter-figure is that it has redirected 82 commercial vessels since resuming blockade enforcement on 14 July, supported by more than 20 warships. GEF holds its own working range at 11–12 commodity crossings a day, between the two claims. No US or wider international response to the zone has been issued. The second event matters as much as the first. Saudi Aramco’s Jazan complex — a 400,000 b/d refinery plus associated processing and energy infrastructure, near the Yemeni border — was struck again on Monday, damage still being assessed, one source describing it as similar in scale to the 27 July attack that damaged the IGCC complex and tank farm and forced a shutdown (Financial Times, two sources). The Houthis claimed the earlier strikes and have declared a Red Sea naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. Jazan is a Red Sea facility — part of the westward infrastructure Riyadh uses precisely to move barrels without transiting Hormuz. The bypass is not a safe harbour; it is a second front, and the Bab el-Mandeb corridor carrying the reroute traffic runs directly past it. Crude priced both. Brent closed Monday around $97.31, a six-week high and nearly 40% above pre-war levels, in a $95.99–$98.05 range; WTI held above $92, a three-month high, after last week’s ~9.3% surge. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed Washington will maintain its naval presence and blockade. A larger rally was capped by demand-side weakness — China cut crude imports and refinery runs sharply — and by continued inventory draws, with the US SPR at 286.6 million barrels, the lowest since 1982. GEF AIS (Sep 8 AM): Hormuz shows Iranian-flag coastal traffic around Bandar Abbas and Qeshm (BARIN 313, MARAL, DELICE, BAVAN, DAHAB, HASNA, CHLOE) with a single [SAT-AIS] contact and no international transit queue — consistent with Rezaei’s claim in shape if not in number; Bab el-Mandeb about eight [SAT-AIS] contacts plus named traffic, holding at baseline; Suez heavy convoys both ways with a full Gulf of Suez anchorage. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — the escalation has moved from hulls to contracts, which is faster.

Sep 9Day 193 — Iran says its Oman agreement on managing Hormuz shipping is “nearing completion.” Brent goes above $98, a six-week high. The market is pricing control of the waterway, not its reopening. The distinction matters: an agreement to manage transit is not an agreement to reopen it. Tehran says the Oman arrangement is close to done, and crude rose on the news rather than falling — Brent above $98 on Tuesday, its highest in six weeks and up roughly 8% on the week, with WTI near $93. A reopening would relieve the premium; a licensing regime administered by the party that closed the strait does not. SNSC secretary Mohsen Rezaei reinforced the framing on X, saying Washington had received a “clear warning” from Iran’s new missiles and that further economic pressure would be met with a maritime exclusion zone extending across the Gulf to the perimeter of the US blockade — the restricted zone recorded on Day 192, now described as reaching the blockade line itself. Two corrections to yesterday’s entry, made in the open. First, damage from Monday’s strike on Aramco’s Jazan facilities is now reported as limited. The strategic point stands — the Red Sea bypass infrastructure is being targeted — but the physical loss this time was small, and this page said the damage was still being assessed. Second, on volumes: roughly 7 million barrels a day of crude and refined products are still reported moving through the strait, against the 4.9m b/d Q2 average GEF has carried and Rezaei’s claim of 7–8 vessels a day. Oil is flowing more than the rhetoric on either side implies. What is being priced is the probability of disruption, not a confirmed supply loss — a premium that compresses quickly if transit data confirms normality, and expands quickly if the exclusion zone is enforced. Both EIA releases land today: the Short-Term Energy Outlook and the weekly petroleum status report, the latter carrying the first SPR print since 286.6 million barrels. GEF AIS (Sep 9 AM): Hormuz shows the familiar Iranian-flag coastal pattern around Bandar Abbas and Qeshm (HAMD, YOUSHAT, MARIVAN, MARAL, DAHAB, HASNA, CHLOE, COBA) plus UHUD, PACIFIC EXPLORER, AL MAKI and MOLLAHPOOR across the Gulf of Oman approaches, and still no international transit procession in the strait itself; Bab el-Mandeb about eight satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contacts plus named traffic, holding at baseline; Suez heavy convoys in both directions with both anchorages full. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — and the thing to watch now is not a strike but a signature.

Sep 10Day 194 — Brent crosses $100 for the first time since May. The US destroys five Iranian tankers off Kharg. Iran tells tanker crews near Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports to abandon their vessels. Three export chokepoints are attacked within 24 hours. Brent closed Wednesday at $100.71, up 2.85% on the day and above $101 intraday — the first time over $100 since May, up 14.81% on the month and 49.22% year-on-year. WTI closed $97.19, up 4.47%, its highest since May; the steeper move narrowed the Brent–WTI spread to about $3.50 from roughly $5 earlier in the week. The US military says it destroyed five Iranian tankers carrying crude near Kharg Island, Iran’s principal export hub, after Iranian attempts to strike a US Navy warship. Iran says it struck two American vessels and eight oil tankers in the Gulf, launched ballistic missiles toward Jordan, and warned tanker crews near Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports to “immediately abandon their vessels.” That last instruction is the significant one, and it is a change in kind rather than degree: it is addressed to crews rather than to governments or owners, and it targets the Gulf’s loading terminals rather than the strait. A restricted zone tries to license passage; telling crews to abandon ship at anchor tries to make the loading points unusable. Two other chokepoints were hit the same day. Houthi forces attacked energy facilities in southern Saudi Arabia — including the 400,000 b/d Jazan refinery for the third time in six weeks — forcing Riyadh to temporarily halt some operations in the region bordering Yemen. And Ukrainian drones struck Novorossiysk, Russia’s main Black Sea oil terminal. Gulf, Red Sea and Black Sea, inside 24 hours. None of these is a production problem: the oil exists, and the attacks are on the places it leaves from. A correction to Day 193, and a standing note on why the number is contested. This page recorded yesterday that “roughly 7 million barrels a day” were still moving through the strait. That figure traces to CENTCOM, and it belongs at the top of a very wide range rather than being reported as the working number. The published estimates differ by roughly a factor of ten: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says more than 17 million barrels transited on a single Monday and CENTCOM reports assisting ~1,300 vessels and 660 million barrels since early May; Kpler measured 6.1 million b/d during the MoU window and 2.3 million b/d before it; Lloyd’s List counted 73 transits in a mid-August week; Reuters has reported flows below 2 million b/d. Pre-war was about 20 million b/d (EIA, IEA). CNN quoted an industry figure saying that even if the daily spikes are real, “I don’t know anyone who thinks the average is that much.” GEF’s position: we carry 11–12 commodity crossings a day and the Q2 average of 4.9m b/d, and treat US government figures as an upper bound rather than a measurement. When a government and a tracking firm differ by an order of magnitude about the same waterway, publishing a single number would be a false precision. The EIA raised its forecast, using data that stops before all of this. Tuesday’s Short-Term Energy Outlook lifted the 2026 Brent average to $91/bbl (+$4) and 2027 to $74 (+$5), with H2 2026 near $90, +$8 on the August forecast, citing Middle East shut-in production of 6.7m b/d in August against 5m b/d in July. But the model used data only to 3 September — before the carrier-group missile attack, the tanker strikes and the move through $100. The raised forecast already sits below the market. The Weekly Petroleum Status Report was pushed to today at 12:00 ET by Monday’s federal closure, so the w/e 28 August inventory figures remain the latest confirmed print. GEF AIS (Sep 10 AM): Hormuz shows the familiar Iranian coastal pattern around Bandar Abbas and Qeshm (BARIN 313, YOUSHAT, DELICE, MARIVAN, MARAL, CASPIA, DAHAB, HASNA, CHLOE, COBA) with no international transit procession; Bab el-Mandeb named traffic plus a handful of [SAT-AIS] contacts, at baseline; Suez heavy convoys and full anchorages at both ends. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — the war is now being fought at the loading terminals, not the strait.

Sep 11Day 195 — the physical count catches up with the price: four ships through Hormuz on Saturday, six on Sunday, the lowest of the war. Bab el-Mandeb still carries 260+ vessels a week. Brent settles $101.21, its highest since May. The transit numbers are now unambiguous at the low end. MarineTraffic figures reported by NBC News put Hormuz at four vessels on Saturday and six on Sunday — the lowest counts of the conflict, and well below the 11–12 commodity crossings a day this page has carried since late August. GEF is adopting the lower figure: the 11–12 range described late-August conditions and no longer describes the strait. Against that, Bab el-Mandeb transits fell 16% week on week but still totalled more than 260 vessels — an order of magnitude above the waterway it is substituting for. Those two numbers, side by side, are the entire reroute expressed in hulls. And the reroute has stopped being improvisation. The EIA’s September outlook records Saudi Arabia increasing shipments through the Suez Canal, a longer and costlier route for its Asian customers, and beginning ship-to-ship transfers outside the Persian Gulf — getting barrels out without a Hormuz transit at all. The EIA expects the constrained Red Sea channel to cap Saudi supply until shipping flows adjust. The catch is the one this page has made repeatedly: the corridor absorbing the diverted trade is itself under attack, with Houthi strikes on southern Saudi energy facilities forcing a temporary halt to some operations, and Ukrainian drones hitting Novorossiysk within the same 24 hours. A correction on price sourcing, made in the open. This page recorded Wednesday as Brent $100.71 and WTI $97.19, taken from a CFD tracker. The futures settlements were $101.21 and $96.05 (Rigzone) — both the highest closes since 22 May, and the WTI figure was out by $1.14. A CFD tracker and a futures settlement are different instruments and GEF should say which it is quoting; from today settlements are used for “settle” and spot reads are labelled as such. The forward curve is worth reading. Standard Chartered reports front-of-curve backwardation steepening to $3.54/bbl week on week, while Brent for delivery in five years rose just $0.21 to $69.54. The market is pricing acute near-term disruption, not a structural repricing of oil — a bet on duration, taken in the same week Trump said the conflict is unlikely to end before the November midterms and that significant petrol-price relief is improbable before then. Iran said it is ready for a more intense conflict and will resist the naval blockade. GEF AIS (Sep 11 AM, five-chokepoint sweep): Hormuz shows the Iranian coastal core (BARIN 313, YOUSHAT, MARIVAN, ATEELA 1/2, CASPIA, BAVAN, MARAL, DAHAB, HASNA, CHLOE, COBA) plus NEW VOYAGE, STARBOUND EXPLORER and AB VICTORY in the Gulf of Oman approaches, and no transit procession — consistent with a four-to-six vessel day; Bab el-Mandeb named traffic plus [SAT-AIS] contacts, busy; Suez heavy convoys and full anchorages at both ends; Malacca/Singapore among the densest captures of the cycle; Panama orderly. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — the strait is now carrying almost nothing, and the system is running on its substitutes.

Sep 12Day 196 — the substitutes fail. Saudi Arabia shuts its East–West crude pipeline; Houthi forces reportedly reach Perim Island in Bab el-Mandeb. Brent touches $108, the highest since May, then falls on news that Gulf states will meet Iran in Oman on Monday. Yesterday this page said the system was running on its substitutes. This week the substitutes came under attack. Saudi Arabia has shut the East–West crude pipeline as a precaution after multiple attacks — the line built across the kingdom precisely to deliver crude to the Red Sea coast without transiting Hormuz. And Houthi forces have reportedly advanced to Yemen’s Perim Island, which sits inside the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the maritime corridor carrying the rerouted trade. Set beside the three strikes on the Jazan refinery, every route out of the Gulf is now closed, degraded or under fire simultaneously. That is the difference between a chokepoint crisis and this: there is no longer a second-best option to fall back on. The price traced it. Brent settled Thursday at $107.63, up 6.3% on the day after touching $108 intraday, its highest since May; WTI settled $102.48, up 6.7%. Both are now up more than 75% year to date. Friday corrected lower — Brent $104.61 (−2.8%), WTI $100.05 (−2.4%) — snapping five straight days of gains for Brent and an eight-day run for WTI. On the week Brent gained 8.7% and WTI 9.4%. Friday’s fall was diplomatic, not physical. Iranian state media said Tehran will meet Gulf states in Oman, with GCC diplomats due to meet their Iranian counterpart on Monday to discuss a temporary arrangement for managing shipping through the strait. Nearly 3% came off Brent on the announcement alone, which is a fair measure of how much of the current price is the absence of a diplomatic track rather than the absence of barrels. Monday is the most consequential day in this conflict for some weeks, and the question this page will be asking is whether any arrangement covers the strait alone or extends to the Red Sea approaches — because on this week’s evidence the approaches are now the binding constraint. The demand side turned hard, and it is not good news. The IEA sharply cut its outlook, forecasting a 2.5 million b/d contraction in global demand in 2026, the largest annual decline since the pandemic; the EIA raised its 2027 US production forecast to 14.3m b/d. Prices are being held down partly by demand destruction rather than by supply relief, which is a different and worse kind of stability. Goldman Sachs lifted its Brent and WTI forecasts by $5 to $85 and $80 for December 2026, warning Brent could exceed $120 in 2027 if Gulf output stays 4m b/d below pre-war levels — not its base case. Other confirmations this week: Saudi crude production fell about 1.9m b/d in August; the US says it has struck 10 Iranian tankers; tanker rates reached record highs; and the delayed EIA weekly report for the week ending 4 September showed US crude inventories down 300,000 barrels, resolving the figure this page could not verify on Thursday. US retail set records alongside — gasoline at a Labor Day high of $4.15/gal, with GasBuddy expecting diesel to cross $6/gal for the first time within days. GEF AIS (Sep 12 AM): Hormuz shows the Iranian coastal core (BARIN 313, YOUSHAT, MARIVAN, ATEELA 2, CASPIA, BAVAN, DAHAB, HASNA, CHLOE, COBA, MARAL) with LISA mid-strait and no transit procession; Bab el-Mandeb busy with named traffic and numerous [SAT-AIS] contacts; Suez heavy both ways with full anchorages; Malacca/Singapore among the densest captures yet; Panama normal. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — and for the first time the alternatives are under attack as heavily as the chokepoint.

Sep 13Day 197 — the most consequential diplomatic day of the conflict falls tomorrow. GCC foreign ministers meet their Iranian counterpart in Oman, the first such gathering since the war began, and Tehran says a temporary safe route through Hormuz will be registered with the International Maritime Organization within days. Markets are closed, so the tape carries Friday’s settles — Brent $104.61, WTI $100.05. (Fortune reports the Brent settle as $104.52, −2.9%, against CNBC’s $104.61, −2.8%; the difference is immaterial but this page reports both rather than picking one silently.) What is actually happening tomorrow. Foreign ministers from the Gulf Cooperation Council — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman — meet Iran’s foreign minister in Oman, with Iraq and other coastal Gulf states also expected (Financial Times). Iran’s foreign ministry frames it as intended to “promote better understanding among the countries of the region and help strengthen shared regional security,” and spokesman Esmail Baghaei says Iran “remains committed to ensuring the security of navigation in the strait.” The concrete item is the IMO registration. Baghaei says the Iran–Oman negotiations have reached their “final stage” and that within days the understanding on a temporary safe route will be registered with the International Maritime Organization. That matters more than the communiqué language, because an IMO filing is a published, verifiable instrument rather than a statement of intent — the first thing in this conflict that could be checked against a document rather than a claim. Two things to watch for in whatever emerges. First, transit fees: both Tehran and Muscat have raised the possibility of charging ships to cross, and Washington has resisted it. A licensed, tolled waterway administered by the party that closed it is not the same as a reopened one, and this page will not describe it as such. Second, whether the arrangement covers the Red Sea approaches. On last week’s evidence — Saudi Arabia shutting its East–West pipeline, Houthi forces reportedly reaching Perim Island — the approaches are now the binding constraint, and a deal covering only the strait would leave the harder problem untouched. The Gulf side is not united. The UAE’s Anwar Gargash said restoring trust with Tehran would be difficult but necessary, and acknowledged that Gulf states had failed to respond to Iran’s attacks in a united fashion, each defending itself without a shared strategy. That candour is itself notable, and it is part of why a GCC-wide meeting is being read as significant. Pin scan (Sunday, shortages-data due). Russia holds at shortage — purchase limits and formal rationing across multiple regions, hours-long queues, gasoline and aviation-fuel export restrictions, and imports now sought from Kazakhstan, Belarus and India. No pin changes: the UK remains price stress rather than physical shortage, with the July and August forecourt queues attributable to panic buying rather than supply failure, and Australia’s station-level outages remain localised logistics against national stocks still above pre-conflict levels. Nothing new met the pin bar this week. GEF AIS (Sep 13 AM): Hormuz shows the Iranian coastal core (BARIN 313, ATEELA 1, MARIVAN, CASPIA, BAVAN, DAHAB, HASNA, CHLOE, COBA) with LISA and ROYAL A mid-strait and no transit procession; Bab el-Mandeb busy with named traffic and several [SAT-AIS] contacts; Suez heavy in both directions with full anchorages at both ends. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — and for once the thing to watch is a meeting rather than a missile.

Sep 14Day 198 — manage is not reopen. Gulf ministers met Iran in Salalah to unveil the Hormuz route agreement and notify the IMO, and crude rose anyway: Brent ~$107.58, WTI ~$102.52. Iran’s foreign minister said on the eve of the meeting that the deal will not reopen the strait. Bahrain refused to attend. The UAE downgraded its delegation. The meeting happened. Foreign ministers from the GCC, Iran and Iraq gathered in Salalah, Oman — the first such gathering since the war began in February — to unveil the Iran–Oman agreement and notify the International Maritime Organization. The route as described: vessels entering the Gulf use Iranian territorial waters; vessels leaving pass through Omani waters. And the price went up. Brent rose about 2.8% to roughly $107.58, WTI 2.5% to about $102.52, WTI now up 21.3% on the month. A market that believed a reopening was at hand would not do that. The reason is that Tehran said plainly what the agreement is not. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned on Sunday that the agreement will not trigger a reopening of the waterway. A senior Iranian source told Amwaj the purpose is narrow: the meeting “does not mean the Strait of Hormuz is being reopened — that situation has its own separate conditions.” President Pezeshkian named the condition: Iran reopens when the United States ends its blockade and its attacks. This page has drawn that distinction since Day 193, when Tehran first described the arrangement as one to manage shipping, and it holds: an agreement to manage transit, administered by the party that closed it, is not a reopening. Two absences carry as much information as the meeting. Bahrain refused to attend, saying it will not join any collective meeting including Iran before diplomatic relations are restored — severed in 2016 and, unlike Saudi Arabia’s 2023 restoration, never repaired. Manama’s stated objection names the exact mechanism this page flagged on Day 197: regional security “cannot be preserved through a policy of appeasement,” and Hormuz should be open without “discrimination, fees or permits.” The UAE confirmed only late on 10 September and downgraded its representation from foreign minister to a minister of state. A bloc that cannot present a united front is a weak counterparty, and any agreement resting on it is a thinner legal basis than restored freedom of navigation — which matters because insurers, not ministers, decide whether ships actually sail. Meanwhile the substitutes failed. Saudi Arabia has shut its East–West crude pipeline after repeated attacks — and the capacity figure deserves correcting upward from earlier entries: roughly 7 million b/d, built expressly to reach Red Sea ports without transiting Hormuz. Houthi forces reportedly advanced to Perim Island inside Bab el-Mandeb. With three strikes on Jazan already logged, every route out of the Gulf is closed, degraded or under fire at once. A chokepoint crisis with a functioning bypass is an expensive inconvenience; without one it is a supply crisis. US diesel crossed $6.00 a gallon on Friday — the first time on record, ten days after its previous all-time high of $5.85, and days after GasBuddy forecast it. Goldman’s Jeff Currie puts “extremely high” odds on $5 gasoline before the November midterms; Trump has said the conflict is unlikely to end before them. An inventory note, flagged rather than resolved: sources differ on the EIA weekly draw for the week ending 4 September, reporting both 300,000 and 400,000 barrels. GEF carries the smaller figure and displays the confirmed w/e 28 August commercial-crude level of 424.4 million barrels, because the newer level has not been verified against the EIA release. GEF AIS (Sep 14 AM): Hormuz shows the Iranian coastal core (BARIN 313, ATEELA 1, CASPIA, BAVAN, DAHAB, HASNA, CHLOE, COBA) with LISA and HERMES mid-strait and no transit procession; Bab el-Mandeb moderate named traffic with two [SAT-AIS] contacts; Suez heavy in both directions with full anchorages. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — the agreement is real, and it is not a reopening.

Sep 15Day 199 — the day after the agreement, Iran says a tanker struck mines, Saudi Arabia’s bypass pipeline stays shut, and Riyadh turns back to Hormuz. The IEA puts a number on who has been paying for this war: global inventories are down 507 million barrels since February. Mines are back, and that matters more than the communiqué. Iran claims a tanker has struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz (Bloomberg). Mining is the mechanism that closed this waterway in March — it is what made insurers withdraw cover before any enforcement occurred, and it is the single development most capable of undoing whatever was agreed at Salalah yesterday. This page will treat confirmation of fresh mining as more consequential than the text of any arrangement. Saudi Arabia has given up on its own bypass, at least for now. The East–West crude pipeline — roughly 7 million b/d, built expressly to reach the Red Sea without transiting Hormuz — remains shut after last week’s attack, and Aramco has declined to say how long. Riyadh is reportedly now trying to raise its Hormuz shipments instead. Read that alongside the past fortnight and the shape is unmistakable: the bypass failed, so the volume is going back onto the chokepoint. A week ago the story was that the alternatives were under attack; today it is that the alternatives have been abandoned. And the strait is carrying almost nothing. Preliminary vessel tracking counted seven ships on 10 September against eleven the day before, on a pre-war norm near 125 cargo vessels a day. The IEA has now quantified the absorption. Global observed inventories have fallen 507 million barrels since fighting began in February — an average draw of 2.8 million b/d, with 95 million barrels taken out in August alone. Supply is down 5.7 million b/d this year to 100.7 million, with more than 10 million b/d of Gulf output shut in through August; August production was 100.1 million b/d, down 1.6 million on the month. The agency cut 2026 demand by a further 940,000 b/d, taking the full-year decline to 2.5 million, and forecasts an 8 million b/d rebound next year — a recovery that runs back through this same strait. Why that figure is the most important number on this page today. It explains why the large consuming economies have lived through a seven-month chokepoint closure without physical rationing: the balance has been met out of stock, not supply. Inventories are the reason a closed strait has produced expensive fuel rather than empty pumps in Europe and North America. They are also finite, which is why GEF tracks buffers ahead of prices. US retail diesel crossed $6.00 a gallon on 11 September, and gasoline supplied more than a third of the August US CPI monthly increase — the war arriving in the inflation data. A correction on price sourcing. This page recorded Brent at ~$107.58 yesterday. That was an intraday quote; Bloomberg reports the Monday close above $105, with WTI moving toward $102 on Tuesday. An intraday high and a close are different measures, and GEF will say which it is quoting — the same discipline adopted last week after the CFD-versus-settlement discrepancy. Pin scan (Tuesday, shortages-data due). Russia holds at shortage and if anything has deepened: purchase limits, QR-based rationing and odd-even plate schemes across nearly all regions, petrol availability tracked as low as 28% of filling stations, Euro-2 to Euro-4 grades reauthorised for the first time since the 2010s, and imports now sought from Kazakhstan, Belarus and India. Harvest season is raising demand into the shortage. No pin changes elsewhere; nothing new met the bar. GEF AIS (Sep 15 AM): Hormuz shows the Iranian coastal core (HAMD, ATEELA 1, MARIVAN, CASPIA, BAVAN, DAHAB, HASNA, CHLOE, COBA) with LISA mid-strait and AB VICTORY in the Gulf of Oman approaches, no transit procession; Bab el-Mandeb busy with named traffic and several [SAT-AIS] contacts; Suez heavy in both directions with full anchorages. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — and the buffer, not the price, is the number to watch.

Sep 16Day 200 — Saudi Arabia cancels September cargoes to European customers and suspends loadings at Yanbu; output falls to its lowest since 1990. Libya warns it may declare force majeure. Brent reaches a four-month high near $107.50. And European gas goes borderline for the first time this cycle. Two hundred days, and the disruption has moved off the chokepoint. That is the thing worth marking today. The drone attacks that closed Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline — roughly 7 million b/d, built to reach the Red Sea without transiting Hormuz — have now produced consequences well beyond the waterway: Riyadh has told European customers that several September deliveries are cancelled, oil loadings at Yanbu are suspended, and Saudi output has fallen to its lowest since 1990. There is no clear timeline for the pipeline’s return; repairs are reported to take several weeks, though US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says he expects it back soon. A second supply front opened in Libya, entirely unconnected to Iran: the National Oil Corporation has suspended two oilfields and a pumping station amid Petroleum Facilities Guard protests that shut the Hamada–Zawiya crude-loading pipeline, and has warned it may declare force majeure. Neither Saudi cargo cancellations nor Libyan field closures are Hormuz stories, and that is precisely the point: seven months of pressure on one waterway has propagated into the export systems built to avoid it. Brent reached about $107.50 on Tuesday, a four-month high, easing below that on Wednesday in what looks like a technical correction; WTI passed $105.5 before slipping back. At least two tankers have been attacked in or around the strait since Saturday, and Houthi forces renewed strikes on Saudi Arabia this week. European gas turned in the same week, and for a related reason. GEF’s direct GIE read puts storage at 68.04% (769.87 TWh) on 13 September, up from 66.59% on 6 September. But that is a realised seven-day pace of +0.207 points a day against the +0.244 needed over the remaining 49 days — below the required rate for the first time this cycle, projecting about 78.2% by 1 November. GIE’s own single-day trend field reads +0.26, which would just clear the target at about 80.8%. The two measures now fall on opposite sides of the required rate, so this page calls it borderline rather than a miss: one week is not a trend, and GEF is not going to announce a failure on a single observation. But the comfortable margin carried through August has gone, and the supply backdrop explains why — Qatar’s LNG force majeure runs through the autumn, Norway’s Ormen Lange outage to February 2027, Germany has chosen not to refill to normal winter levels, and now Saudi crude cargoes to Europe are being cancelled as well. One genuine de-escalation, logged against all of that. President Trump announced a truce on strikes against Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities, and Turkey is seeking to broker an agreement on Black Sea shipping. In the same period Russia struck petrol stations in Kyiv and Ukraine hit a Russian refinery, so it is announced rather than observed — but it is the first de-escalatory step in any theatre for some weeks and belongs on the record. GEF AIS (Sep 16 AM): Hormuz shows the Iranian coastal core (BARIN 313, MARIVAN, ATEELA 2, CASPIA, DAHAB, HASNA, CHLOE, COBA) with AB VICTORY and AMIRMOHAMAD in the Gulf of Oman approaches and no transit procession; Bab el-Mandeb busy with named traffic and several [SAT-AIS] contacts; Suez heavy in both directions with full anchorages. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — two hundred days, and the system is now failing in places the strait cannot reach.

Sep 17Day 201 — Saudi Arabia moves to restore the East–West pipeline: about half of the ~7 million b/d bypass within days, full capacity targeted in roughly six weeks. Crude falls on it. The strait itself does not move. The first genuinely de-escalatory supply development of this cycle, and it is about the bypass rather than the chokepoint. The 1,200km East–West line — halted on 10 September by drone attacks from Iraq-based militias — is being brought back in stages: Riyadh is restoring roughly half of its capacity within days by routing around the damaged sections, with full capacity targeted in about six weeks (Bloomberg, 16 September). Yesterday this page recorded that there was no clear timeline for the line’s return and that Riyadh had turned back to Hormuz instead; that position is superseded today, and the correction is recorded here rather than made silently. The market repriced immediately. Brent eased to about $105.40 and WTI to about $101.80, both down roughly half a percent on intraday CFD spot reads (TradingEconomics), against a Brent reading near $107.50 earlier in the week — the measure is stated because a CFD quote and a settlement are different things. What has not changed is Hormuz. The Salalah route arrangement remains a licensing regime administered by the party that closed the waterway, and Tehran has said plainly it is not a reopening. Why it matters: what is being repaired is the pressure valve, not the chokepoint. The system is routing around a blockage that is still in place — that relieves price without resolving cause, and the repair is proceeding under continuing threat, which is why GEF treats the six-week target as an operator intention rather than a forecast. The scale of what it undoes is worth holding alongside it: Saudi exports fell to about 3 million b/d in August, a nine-year low, output is at its lowest since 1990, Aramco moved roughly 20 million barrels to Asian refiners for September–October, and Poland’s Orlen went to the market for replacement cargoes. The US buffer took another step down. EIA data released 16 September (week ending 11 September) puts the SPR at 285.0 million barrels after a further 403,000-barrel draw — still the lowest since 1982 — with commercial crude drawing 640,000 barrels to 423.4 million, a third consecutive weekly decline, though shallower than the ~1.4 million expected. Products built — gasoline +794,000 to 207.7 million, distillate +1.6 million to 107.9 million — but remain about 5% and 13% below their five-year averages respectively. Refinery utilisation eased to 96.8% from 97.8%; crude exports ran at 4.8 million b/d, the largest weekly increase since late May, which did more to move the crude number than domestic demand did. A note on sourcing: a +7.14 million-barrel build circulating for the same week is the API estimate, not the EIA print, and the two point in opposite directions. A second squeeze, entirely separate from this war. Reuters reported on 15 September that three of Russia’s six largest diesel-producing refineries have halted or deeply cut output after Ukrainian drone strikes — Kinef (Kirishi) shut entirely, Volgograd and NORSI at roughly 25% of designed capacity — from a group of plants making about half of Russian diesel. It drains the same global distillate pool that has already carried US retail diesel above $6.00 a gallon. Pin change, and it goes down rather than up. GEF has demoted its Russia retail pin from shortage to watch under the 14-day re-confirmation rule — not because conditions improved, and with the supply side visibly worse, but because the dry-station, queue and per-visit-cap evidence the red tier requires was last confirmed 19–22 August and no September-dated source re-confirms it. Confirmed refinery capacity loss is amber under GEF’s colour rule; red requires current confirmed unavailability at the pump. The burden of proof is on keeping a red pin, not on removing it — the same standard applied to Tajikistan on 8 September and to Kyrgyzstan and Laos on 25 August. The map now reads 10 active + 19 watch, 29 live pins, unchanged in total. Any September-dated report of caps, dry pumps or queues returns Russia to red immediately. GEF AIS (Sep 17 AM): Hormuz shows the familiar Iranian-flag coastal core around Bandar Abbas and Qeshm (BAVAN, MARIVAN, CASPIA, BARIN 313, YOUSHAT, ATEELA 1, AZARKHSH 908, DAHAB, HASNA, CHLOE, COBA) with MOLLAHPOOR 3 and MOLAVI 2 in the approaches and GRIT, FELICITY, TERNHOLM, SHANDONG REDWOOD and SOLIX toward the Musandam side — underway contacts, but still no international transit procession; Bab el-Mandeb busy with named traffic (MELITE, FORTITUDE, ALTIS, LXH, DORIN, RAVYA, FOGAS, BEST SHANGHAI, TIGER 6, BRAVE) plus four satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contacts, within the 3–12 band this page has tracked since August; Suez heavy and orderly in both directions with full anchorages at Port Said and the Gulf of Suez. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — the bypass is being repaired, the chokepoint is not, and the buffers are still the number to watch.

Sep 18Day 202 — the strait had its worst day of the war, three transits on Wednesday, and crude fell anyway for a third straight session. The bypass and the chokepoint have decoupled. Three ships. Kpler counted just three vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday 17 September — one empty Supramax dry bulk inbound on the Iranian route, one empty petroleum product tanker inbound on a dark route, and one Panamax tanker outbound, also dark — against twelve the previous day and a 10-day average near seventeen. The pre-war norm was around 130 a day. Kpler attributes the collapse to the Gulf war intensifying: Saudi airstrikes on Yemen and Houthi drone and missile attacks on Saudi cities. As always, the count excludes vessels running with transponders off, so it is a floor rather than a total — a caveat this page applies in both directions. And the price went the other way. Brent fell to about $103.50 and WTI to about $100.45 on Friday, both intraday CFD spot reads, a third consecutive decline, continuing the slide that began when Saudi Arabia announced it would restore roughly half of the East–West pipeline’s ~7m b/d capacity within days, with full capacity targeted in about six weeks. Both things are true at once because they are about different objects. This page argued yesterday that what was being repaired was the pressure valve rather than the chokepoint. Within twenty-four hours the two moved in opposite directions on the same day, which is as direct a test of that reading as the data is likely to offer. The market is pricing the bypass. The waterway is getting worse. Anyone reading the crude tape as a proxy for the strait is now reading the wrong instrument. China enters the story. Reuters reported on 17 September that Saudi Arabia appealed to Beijing after Houthi advances along the Red Sea coast near Bab el-Mandeb, and that China privately asked Tehran to restrain the group — possibly during foreign minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit to China on Wednesday. The leverage is real and asymmetric: roughly half of China’s oil imports come from the region, its trade with the GCC runs near $300 billion a year, and Chinese buyers took more than 80% of Iran’s seaborne crude exports in 2025, averaging about 1.4 million b/d. No threat accompanied the request, and three Iranian sources said it is unclear whether Tehran will respond; Tehran’s answer was that regional stability depends on ending the US–Israeli conflict with Iran. GEF logs this as the first point in the cycle at which China moves from backdrop to participant — it is the only actor holding simultaneous leverage over both Tehran and Riyadh, and the only one whose commercial interest runs against every party escalating. The war around the water. Five were killed on 17 September as Saudi Arabia and the Houthis traded attacks: a Houthi drone intercepted over Taif governorate killed one Yemeni resident and injured two — the first announced death in Saudi Arabia this month — while Saudi airstrikes hit three telecommunications towers in Taiz province, killing one civilian. Houthi leader Abdel-Malik al-Houthi denied Saudi claims that the group had targeted Mecca, calling it “a heinous lie.” Bab el-Mandeb eased slightly to 21 crossings on Wednesday from 24 — still an order of magnitude above Hormuz, and worth holding against the pipeline repair: as the East–West line returns over the coming weeks, more cargo lands into that strait, not less. The repair that relieves one chokepoint loads the other. A data correction on this site, disclosed in the open. Today’s marine rota found that the KPI strip on /marine-traffic/ and both globe files had been carrying mid-July data (“Hormuz Day 136”) for two months. The freshness stamp on the underlying file read 11 September and the build gate passed, because only one of the file’s three sections had actually been refreshed on that date and the stamp covers the whole file. It has been rebuilt from today’s frames, and the file now carries an explicit rule requiring all three sections to be walked before the stamp moves. Recorded here because this site’s standard is that corrections are made on the page, not silently. Pin scan. Russia’s promotion trigger, set yesterday, has not fired: a further check today found nothing on retail availability newer than 19–22 August, so the demotion to watch stands and the map holds at 10 active + 19 watch. Reports of US stations running dry in North Texas and Orlando were reviewed and rejected as pin evidence — the source states they are not independently confirmed beyond social media, and GasBuddy’s own analyst cautions that $9.99 pump displays signal stock-outs rather than confirm them. Logged as a watch signal, not a pin. Australia (Friday rota). The ACCC’s 11 September report has retail petrol and diesel rising across most locations on international benchmark moves; national averages are about A$2.133/L petrol and A$2.456/L diesel, up 19.7% and 18.8% over three months, with the 16c/L excise relief expired since 2 August. No confirmed rural station-dry reporting, so the pin stays amber. GEF AIS (Sep 18 AM): Hormuz shows the Iranian-flag coastal core (HAMD, YOUSHAT, ATEELA 1, MARIVAN, DELICE, CASPIA, DAHAB, HASNA, CHLOE, COBA, BARIN 313) with the MOLLAE/MOLAY cluster mid-frame and SOLIX, FELICITY, SHANDONG REDWOOD and TERNHOLM toward Musandam — no transit procession, which squares exactly with a three-vessel count; Bab el-Mandeb shows roughly ten to eleven satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contacts, up from four yesterday and back at the top of the 3–12 band tracked since August, alongside OURANA, EARTH, DORIN, ROAMA 19, MIRADOR, GELIOTROP, VELOS LEO, PASODOBLE, SKIF and RED SEA II — flagged, not read as a trend, since the Day 178 single-day move reversed within a day; Suez heavy and orderly in both directions with full anchorages. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — and the instrument to watch is the transit count, not the tape.

Sep 19Day 203 — three vessels were counted through the strait on Wednesday. Satellite tracking shows Saudi Arabia moved about 2.8 million b/d through it. Both numbers are right, and the gap between them is the most useful thing on this page today. The reconciliation. Kpler counted three transits on 17 September. Over roughly the same period, satellite data shows Saudi Arabia moving about 2.8 million b/d through Hormuz across six days, against roughly 700,000 b/d in August, with a further 60 million barrels shifted out of Ras Tanura by ship-to-ship transfer. The two are not in conflict. Transfers off Sohar, Oman are conducted with transponders switched off, which is exactly the mechanism that makes AIS-derived counts undercount. This page has described every transit figure as a floor rather than a total since the spring. This is the first week the size of that floor-to-actual gap has been measurable, and the discipline cuts both ways: apply it to GEF’s own counts, not just to everyone else’s. What it does not mean. It does not mean the crisis has eased. Saudi output is down more than 70% from the 7.5 million b/d of January–February to around 2.1 million b/d in early September. Volume is returning to the chokepoint only because every alternative is worse: Yanbu sits behind Houthi-controlled Bab el-Mandeb, and the Cape routing adds roughly a month to Asian deliveries. The strait is carrying more because the bypasses cannot. Crude eased on the repair. Brent closed around $103.87 on Friday 18 September and WTI around $100.30, both CFD spot reads, with Brent down 1.2% on the week from a four-month high near $106. Source discrepancies this page is not resolving. The East–West pipeline attack is dated 10 September by Bloomberg and 12 September by Al Jazeera. Saudi August export figures appear as 2.3 million b/d (total exports) and ~700,000 b/d (Hormuz-transiting volume) — probably different measures, but GEF has not reconciled them and will not pretend otherwise. Repair estimates span three to five weeks, six weeks, and Aramco’s own half capacity within days. The spread is published rather than averaged, on the same principle that governs the transit-volume range. A correction on this site. Today’s weekend page rotation found that /shortages/canada/ has carried a factual error since 8 September: it reported that Canada’s federal fuel excise had returned that day, adding roughly 11¢/L at the pump. Ottawa did the opposite — it extended the suspension to 31 January 2027, with 50% rates to 31 March 2027 and full rates from 1 April 2027. The page had been written before the decision and was not updated when it came. It is corrected, with the error stated at the top of the page rather than quietly removed, and the two other pages that repeated the old timetable (/fuel-prices/ and the Australia forecast) are updated too. Pin scan. Reports circulating on 17 September of US stations out of diesel in North Texas and Orlando were reviewed and rejected as pin evidence: the source states they are unconfirmed beyond social media, and GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis said the company is “not seeing any high level outages” in its data. Logged as a watch signal. Russia re-checked for a second day with no September-dated retail confirmation, so the watch classification holds. Map unchanged at 10 active + 19 watch. US retail diesel set another record at $6.448/gal on 18 September, gasoline $4.469. GEF AIS (Sep 19 AM): Hormuz shows the Iranian coastal core (HAMD, ATEELA 1 and 2, MARIVAN, CASPIA, BAVAN, DAHAB, HASNA, CHLOE, COBA) with AZARKHSH 908, MARSER and SEAWAY in the approaches and GRIT, FELICITY, TERNHOLM, SELENIA, SHANDONG REDWOOD and SOLIX toward Musandam — no transit procession, consistent with a low counted number and, as above, not a measure of volume; Bab el-Mandeb carries named traffic (CARTAGENA, NEREIDA, PIERRE, PURITY, KAITO, EARTH, ADELAIDE, ANWAAR BENGHAZI, DEMANTOID, PEARL1, RED SEA II) alongside roughly seven satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contacts, mid-range in the 3–12 band tracked since August; Suez heavy and orderly in both directions with full anchorages. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL — and the number to trust is the one whose method you can see.

Sep 20Day 204 — the pipeline built to bypass Hormuz is shut, so Saudi crude is going through Hormuz instead. That is why the price fell. Aramco has sold roughly 60 million barrels for September and October loading by ship-to-ship transfer at Sohar, Oman, just outside the strait, exporting 1–1.5m b/d through that route. Regional ship-to-ship volumes reached 7.15m b/d over a fourteen-day window, up 56% month-on-month, running above 2m b/d in early September against roughly 1m b/d more than August. Chinese and South Korean refiners are the principal buyers, with further cargoes to India and Japan; Kuwait and Qatar use the tactic occasionally. The inversion is the point. The East–West pipeline existed precisely to avoid this waterway, so its closure pushes more crude through the chokepoint, not less. Brent shed more than a dollar on Friday to about $103.87 because the market is pricing the workaround, not the waterway. The workaround is not priced. These transfers run on ageing vessels with uninspected hoses and transponders switched off, and insurers are unlikely to write broad cover during an active conflict, which leaves the producing state carrying most of the exposure. The transponder practice is also the mechanism that makes AIS counts undercount, so the floor-to-actual gap is a property of the route rather than a measurement failure. France joined the shortage map. 11% of French service stations were out of stock at 09:00 on Friday 18 September — about one in nine — with Grand Est worst at 16% against Île-de-France at 7%, and President Macron convened an emergency meeting at the Élysée the same day. A deterioration rather than the tail of the 6–11 September wave, which had eased to 6–7%. Map to 11 active + 19 watch. A correction to this site’s own data. US natural-gas storage had been carried at 2,983 Bcf from the 3 July print; the live figure is 3,298 Bcf (w/e 11 September, released the 17th), and the surplus over the five-year average has narrowed from 6.6% to 3.7% while slipping 122 Bcf below year-ago. Corrected across the storage pages and both globe views. GEF AIS (Sep 20 AM): Hormuz shows the Iranian coastal core at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm with no transit procession; Bab el-Mandeb eased to roughly eight satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contacts; Suez heavy and orderly. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL.

Sep 21Day 205 — the week the numbers stopped agreeing. CENTCOM says shipments hit a six-month high; the two US official figures for the same strait are 64% apart. In a video message on Saturday 19 September, US Central Command’s Admiral Brad Cooper said oil and LNG shipments over the preceding fortnight reached their highest level in six months, that Gulf allies had moved “more than 1 billion barrels of crude” through the strait “in the last couple months”, and that the primary transit lanes are clear of mines. “Clearly, momentum is building.” Five numbers now describe this waterway and they do not agree. Cooper’s billion barrels over roughly two months implies about 16.4m b/d. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright put it at 10m b/d in the same week. GEF’s satellite-derived read of Saudi crude was 2.8m b/d across six days. Kpler counted three vessels on 17 September. Iran says the strait is closed and it has exported nothing. The 64% spread sits inside one government, inside one week. This is no longer a dispute between official sources and independent trackers; it is a dispute between officials. Cooper’s implied rate is roughly 82% of the pre-war norm of about 20m b/d, on a waterway where Saudi output is down more than 70% from January–February. No independent tracker is cited anywhere in the coverage. GEF is not calling the claim false, and the discipline cuts both ways. The Sohar transfers move barrels with transponders off, so AIS-derived counts genuinely undercount — this page has called every transit figure a floor since the spring, and last week’s measurable gap is the strongest evidence yet that GEF’s own counts understate volume. What cannot be done is reconcile 16.4m b/d with any measured series. Crude fell while the pump set records. Brent dropped a fourth consecutive session to about $101.79 and WTI broke back below $100 to $98.12. Yet AAA national diesel set a record $6.505/gal on 20 September — a third record in four days after $6.39 on the 17th and $6.448 on the 18th — with gasoline at $4.476. Distillate, not crude, is the binding constraint: US distillate stocks sit ~13% below their five-year average and the EIA now sees them under the five-year low through much of 2027. GEF AIS (Sep 21 AM): the Iranian coastal core holds (MIR MAHNA, ATEELA 2, CASPIA, BAVAN, DAHAB, HASNA, CHLOE, COBA, BARIN 313) with GRIT, FELICITY, SOLIX, CANGJIE, AMIL, LR STEPHANIE and KAVIZ toward Musandam. New this morning: a satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contact inside the Bandar Abbas approaches — not routine on this map, and exactly the signature transponder-off transfers predict. One frame is not a trend. Bab el-Mandeb back to roughly ten to eleven [SAT-AIS] contacts, the top of the tracked band; Suez heavy and orderly. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL.

Sep 22Day 206 — the independent trackers answered, and a correction on this site. On the strait. GEF said yesterday it would report whatever the trackers found on Admiral Cooper’s six-month-high claim. Bloomberg, using its own satellite imagery with freight analysis from Signal Maritime, puts current Hormuz flows at 6–8m b/d and describes the level as approximately half pre-war. Tankertrackers.com reports 3.7m b/d over seven days on AIS. Cooper’s figure implied 16.4m b/d; Energy Secretary Wright said 10m b/d. Bloomberg’s read is roughly consistent with Wright and flatly inconsistent with Cooper, and the top of the official range has no independent support. Counts remain a floor, official figures an upper bound. One finding corroborates this site directly. The same satellite snapshot showed the highest tanker count at Saudi Gulf export installations since June — while Red Sea loadings fell. That is substitution, not growth: the same barrels moving from Yanbu to the Gulf because the East–West pipeline is shut, which is the inversion this page has described since Day 204. TradingEconomics separately has Riyadh sustaining about 2.9m b/d through the strait, against the 2.8m b/d GEF published from its own read. A correction on this site. The 20 September entry below attributed France’s fuel shortage to logistics friction including low water on the Rhine, and concluded that the war buffer had thinned far enough for ordinary friction to empty pumps in a G7 economy. That conclusion was wrong and is withdrawn. Departmental data published on the 21st shows Paris worst at 31.9%, and Paris is not Rhine-fed — the concentration is by brand. Between 86% and 91% of all ruptures are at TotalEnergies stations, which have held €1.99/litre petrol and €2.25 diesel since 22 July against market averages of €2.18 and €2.42. Economy Minister Roland Lescure calls it a commercial problem rather than a national logistics failure; reserves are full and refineries run at maximum. The war link survives one step back — there is no gap to cap in a €1.70 market — but the mechanism is an administered price, not a barrel that failed to arrive. France is nonetheless worsening: 11% of stations out of stock on the 18th, 13% on the 19th, 15% on the 20th, 16.5–17% on the 21st with 11% completely dry; gazole up from 2% on 11 September to 12.5%. The pin stays red because the colour rule scores the retail condition, not the cause. Map holds at 11 active + 19 watch. Russia re-checked for a third time (17, 19 and 22 September): the freshest substantive source is dated 3 July, so the September-dated promotion trigger is not met and the watch classification holds. Crude turned. Brent rose 1.35% to about $101.69, snapping a four-session losing streak, on President Trump addressing the UN General Assembly and signalling openness to talks with Iran — a diplomatic move, not a change in the flow data. [Corrected 24 September: that figure was an intraday quote published as a close. Brent settled $99.25 on 22 September, down 1.09%, and the losing streak ran to five sessions. See the 23 September entry.] GEF AIS (Sep 22 AM): the Iranian coastal core holds (HAMD, CASPIA, ATEELA 2, BAVAN, DAHAB, HASNA, CHLOE, COBA) with YOKO 1 and LITUS under way and GRIT, FELICITY, LR STEPHANIE, SOLIX, CANGJIE, AMIL and KAVIZ toward Musandam. The satellite-only [SAT-AIS] contact in the Bandar Abbas approaches is present for a second consecutive morning — a repeat rather than an anomaly, now tracked as a series, and the mechanical reason AIS-derived figures like the 3.7m b/d above are floors. Bab el-Mandeb at roughly eleven to twelve satellite-only contacts, the highest of the cycle; a third day at the top is where it stops being noise. Suez heavy and orderly. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL.

Sep 23Day 207 — the bypass reopened and Tehran floated a deadline, and the strait did not move. The pipeline. Saudi Arabia restarted the East–West pipeline on 22 September, eleven days after drone attacks shut it, and a Yanbu cargo was scheduled for China the same day. It is running at a low rate: Aramco is targeting 4m b/d against a 7m b/d maximum, with 40% of capacity days away and a full restart put at six to eight weeks; Aramco has not confirmed officially. GEF’s published three-to-five-week repair estimate was wrong in both directions — the line came back sooner, and full capacity will take longer. The Day 204 inversion now runs in reverse: traders are positioning tankers at Port Said and Sidi Kerir, so Saudi barrels leave the Hormuz-and-Sohar workaround and return to the Red Sea, and onto Bab el-Mandeb. The offer. A senior Iranian official said the strait could reopen within seven days if Washington lifted its export blockade. GEF held the board at CRITICAL: a reopening is verified by transit counts, not announcements. A correction on this site. GEF’s 22 September crude figures were live intraday quotes published as closes. Brent settled $99.25, down 1.09%, not $101.69 up; WTI settled about $90 against about $98 published, which also inverted the reported direction of the Brent–WTI spread. From today GEF publishes only the previous session’s confirmed settle, dated, cross-checked against two sources. Gas. TTF settled €71.86/MWh, down 2.02%, on the reopening talk. GEF AIS (Sep 23): Iranian coastal core holds; no satellite-only contact in the Bandar Abbas approaches, ending a two-morning series. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL.

Sep 24Day 208 — the false dawn lasted one day. Iran’s President told the UN General Assembly on 23 September that the nation would not bow to threats and warned against freedom of navigation through the strait while sanctions persist — a direct contradiction of the previous day’s seven-day reopening offer. Brent settled $103.08, up 3.86%, ending the five-session decline; WTI $92.15, leaving the spread near $10.9. This is the fourth false dawn GEF has logged, after the April ceasefire, the June MoU and Salalah, and the shortest. It is not a vindication of holding CRITICAL; it means the strait stays shut. Downstream. EIA data for the week to 18 September show US commercial crude up 3.0m barrels to 426.4m, ending three weekly draws, while distillate fell again to 12% below its five-year average; AAA diesel set a record $6.5276/gal on 22 September. A reported 90-day US diesel export ban was denied by the White House on 23 September — relevant here because US product exports are what Europe and Latin America are using to replace Gulf supply. GEF AIS (Sep 24): Iranian coastal core at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm with more movement in the approaches, no satellite-only contact for a second day. Bab el-Mandeb at about seven satellite-only contacts, up from five and inside the 3–12 band tracked since August. Suez dense and orderly, with three satellite-only contacts in the canal corridor — unusual there, flagged rather than called. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL.

Sep 25Day 209 — talks reported, the bypass targeted, and a correction. Diplomacy. Reuters and Bloomberg reported on 24 September that US and Iranian negotiators, with Qatar mediating at the UN, are exploring a phased deal: Iran reopens the strait, the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports, on a model resembling the June MoU. Foreign Minister Araghchi set conditions — the blockade lifted, assets unfrozen, fighting stopped on all fronts. President Trump said he expected a deal “right after the election.” Nothing is signed, and a day earlier Iran’s President rejected a reopening offer at the UN. On the water. Windward counted 10 inbound (one dark) and 2 outbound transits on 23 September; a cargo vessel was struck by a projectile and caught fire in the strait that day, with two casualties; a 94 km oil slick off eastern Musandam is drifting north; and GPS jamming hit 331 vessels. The bypass. Saudi Arabia intercepted six Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at Taif and the Yanbu area on 24 September. Brent settled $106.60, up 3.4%, after rising about 5% intraday; WTI $94.61. A correction on this site. The 23 September entry said a Yanbu cargo was scheduled to load the day the East–West pipeline restarted, and GEF’s chokepoint pages said Yanbu was loading again. Reuters reported on 24 September that loadings had not resumed, with repairs still under way at two pumping stations; Windward saw one dark tanker loading on 22 September. The return to the Red Sea is beginning, not established. GEF AIS (Sep 25), the first sweep of all five chokepoints since late August: Iranian coastal core at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm (AZARKHSH 908, ATEELA 1, MARIVAN, CASPIA, BAVAN, HASNA, CHLOE, COBA, DAHAB), NV AQUAMARINE under way, GRIT, FELICITY, ZONDA, CANGJIE, AMIL and KAVIZ toward Musandam, no satellite-only contact for a third morning. Bab el-Mandeb about four satellite-only contacts, down from seven; Suez one, down from three; Malacca and Panama normal. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL.

Sep 26Day 210 — a seven-day plan on the table, and the bypass under guard. The plan. Foreign Minister Araghchi presented Iran’s plan through intermediaries at the UN on 25 September (Al Jazeera): in days one to seven, fighting halts on all fronts including Lebanon, the US lifts its naval blockade and oil sanctions, and frozen assets are released; at the end of day seven the strait reopens; nuclear talks follow. It condenses the June MoU and defers the nuclear file. President Pezeshkian told Fox News Iran is “ready to strike a deal”; an Iranian official ruled out nuclear concessions; Secretary of State Rubio cautioned against calling the talks a breakthrough. An Iranian military adviser threatened to extend the conflict to the Indian Ocean. On the water. Commodity transits fell to single digits on 25 September (Khaleej Times). The bypass. The Houthis claimed strikes on Aramco facilities at Yanbu, a site in Riyadh and Jazan; Saudi Arabia confirmed intercepting six missiles aimed at Taif and Yanbu and reported no damage. The UN Security Council condemned the attacks, and President Macron said France will send soldiers, radars and air-defence systems to protect Yanbu. About 150 fighters were killed in 24 hours in Yemen, including over the highlands above Bab el-Mandeb. Yanbu loadings had still not resumed. Price. Brent settled $104.32 on Friday, down 2.1% on deal hopes and up 0.4% on the week; WTI $92.41. GEF AIS (Sep 26): Iranian coastal core at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm (BARIN 313, ATEELA 1, MARIVAN, CASPIA, BAVAN, HASNA, XARON, COBA, DAHAB), new names moving (POSEIDON ECO, NAUTILUS I, ARGO MARIS, AB VICTORY), no satellite-only contact for a fourth morning. Bab el-Mandeb thinner in the narrows, traffic clustered in the Gulf of Aden, about six satellite-only contacts; Suez none in the canal. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL.

Sep 28Day 212 — the plan rejected, talks promised. Diplomacy. On 26 September President Trump said Iran’s seven-day plan “would not be acceptable” and that Iran wants a deal “because they are losing so badly” (Al Jazeera); Foreign Minister Araghchi said he was awaiting the mediators’ “definitive opinions”. On 27 September Trump told Axios he expects more talks in the days ahead; Araghchi said on NBC that the US ambassador to the UN had not read the plan (The National). No talks are scheduled, and Iran says it will not soften its conditions. On the water. Windward: 6 commercial transits on 25 September, half the outbound running dark; 13 on 26 September (8 in, 5 out). GPS jamming affected 112 vessels in the Persian Gulf. The IRGC claims to have captured a second US underwater drone; the US has not commented. No vessel attack was reported over the weekend. The bypass. On 26 September the Saudi-led coalition intercepted two ballistic missiles aimed at Khamis Mushait and two drones aimed at Riyadh, with no energy damage. Reports disagree on whether Yanbu has resumed loading. Price. Friday’s settles stand — Brent $104.32, WTI $92.41 — with Brent up 0.4% and WTI down 7.9% on the week; Monday opened higher on the rejection. GEF AIS (Sep 28): Iranian coastal core at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm (BARIN 313, ATEELA 1, MARIVAN, CASPIA, ARGO MARIS, BAVAN, HASNA, XARON, COBA, DAHAB), HESTER under way off Seerik, no satellite-only contact. Bab el-Mandeb traffic back through the narrows, about six satellite-only contacts; Suez convoys in the canal again; Malacca and Panama normal. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL.

Sep 29Day 213 — talks resume, no deal, and the bypass partly back. Diplomacy. On 28 September US and Iranian negotiators exchanged messages through Qatari mediators (CBS). President Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day reopening offer as insufficient but said he would grant sanctions relief and release frozen funds against concrete nuclear progress; Foreign Minister Araghchi said it is “up to President Trump to choose” between war and diplomacy. Iranian officials doubt a ceasefire before the US midterms (Trading Economics). On the water. Windward counted 25 transits on 27 September (9 inbound, 16 outbound), 14 of them dark, including five inbound tankers of up to 333m; 11 of 25 used the southern corridor. That is up from 13 on 26 September and 6 on 25 September, and still about a fifth of the pre-war rate. Straits.live counts 209 vessels holding position and 97 tankers going dark in 24 hours. The bypass. Aramco restarted the East–West pipeline about two weeks after the attacks that disabled it: about 3.5m b/d on 28 September, aiming for about 4m b/d against 7m b/d capacity. Yanbu loadings resumed this week, confirmed by satellite imagery, at roughly half of pre-attack rates. At least one pumping station was heavily damaged and runs on temporary bypasses (Kpler via OilPrice); the Houthis made a third attempt on Yanbu and Taif on 24 September; war-risk cover is about 3% of hull value. A correction on this site: GEF labelled Yanbu loadings “disputed” on 26–28 September; the restart is now reported by OilPrice/Kpler, Trading Economics and Bloomberg, so the label is withdrawn. Price. Monday’s settles — Brent $105.28 (+0.9%), WTI $92.60 (+0.2%) — after a spike of more than $4 on the rejection; Tuesday intraday Brent is about $106.6, not a settle. GEF AIS (Sep 29): Iranian coastal core at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm (YOUSHAT, HAMD, ATEELA 1, MARIVAN, CASPIA, ARGO MARIS, BAVAN, HASNA, CHLOE, COBA, DAHAB), JI XIANG under way south of Qeshm, no satellite-only contact. Bab el-Mandeb named traffic in the narrows (ZUMBA, NOCTIS, YENISEI, ARABESCA, OTTOMAN SINCERITY) and six to eight satellite-only contacts; Suez convoys under way both ways. Malacca and Panama were not framed today. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL.

Oct 5Day 219 — four tankers hit, Trump rejects again, G7 releases 100 Mbbl. On the water. UKMTO and operator statements record at least four vessels struck in Hormuz by “unknown projectiles” between 1 and 4 October: the Kuwait-flagged VLCC Kazimah III (1 Oct, fire, crew safe), Panama-flagged Uhud (2-3 Oct, engine blackout, continued with tug), Dynacom’s six-week-old Aframax Lipsi (4 Oct, engine room damaged) and an inbound vessel where a drone entered the funnel and dropped into the engine room (Seatrade; TradeWinds; Riviera). No deaths reported; reporting points to the IRGC. Diplomacy. Around 1 October President Trump rejected a renewed Iranian proposal built on the June MoU, saying it was unacceptable and that Iran was negotiating only because “the money isn’t coming in.” Axios reported on 2 October that US officials now consider airstrikes probable after the November midterms. Iran International (4 Oct) says Trump is weighing the decision with “all options” on the table. The G7 release. On 2 October the G7 agreed through the IEA to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from strategic reserves, immediate start, four-month duration, first 20 days front-loaded as diesel. President Trump pressed for the move and committed not to impose export bans. It is the biggest coordinated release since the IEA’s March 400 Mbbl announcement. OPEC+. On 4 October OPEC+ kept November output targets unchanged (31 mb/d joint quota for the 7 core members). 2 mb/d of extra cuts remain through year-end. Next meeting 2 November. Price. Brent settled $102.25 (+0.11% week), WTI $91.11 (−1.4% week) on Friday 2 October after a $4.28 Thursday rally reversed by the G7 announcement; Monday 5 October intraday Brent is about $101.74. Transits. Windward week 23-30 Sep: 119 total (54 in, 65 out, 37% dark); 30 Sep alone 16 transits (6 in, 10 out, 6 dark). Attacks on 1-4 October interrupted the recovery. GEF AIS (Oct 5): Iranian coastal core at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm (MIR MAHNA, ATEELA 1, ATEELA 2, MARIVAN, CASPIA, BAVAN, HASNA, CHLOE, COBA), no satellite-only contact. Bab el-Mandeb named traffic through the narrows and 6-7 satellite-only contacts; Suez convoys both ways in a normal pattern. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL.

Oct 6Day 220 — Iran says Hormuz stays shut until seven conditions are met; Brent falls on a Saudi price cut. Diplomacy. On 4 October Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the strait will not reopen until the US accepts seven conditions based on the Islamabad memorandum; Araghchi warned Iran is “more prepared than before” if military operations resume (Al Jazeera; The National). President Masoud Pezeshkian has called negotiations with the US “meaningless”, saying Washington repeatedly attacked Iran after talks, while President Trump calls the conflict “essentially almost over” and says high fuel costs are “a small price to pay” (Iran International live blog, 5-6 October). On the water. Corrected 7 October: a further tanker was struck on 6 October — the Panama-flagged On Peace, hit by an unidentified projectile with 12 crew injured, 11 of them Indian (Al Jazeera; Energy News Beat). This entry originally said no new strike was confirmed after 4 October; that was wrong. CBS’s live blog reports one vessel turned back after IRGC threats; that is a single source and is not counted. Red Sea. Saudi-backed Yemeni forces attacked the Houthis near Bab el-Mandeb on 4 October (CNN), and a tanker reported explosions nearby with the crew safe. Houthi claims of strikes on Saudi targets are unverified and are not published here. Price. Brent (Dec) settled $100.32 (−1.9%) and WTI (Nov) $89.43 (−1.8%) on Monday 5 October (Rigzone; Investrade). Saudi Aramco cut its November Arab Light price for Asia to a $5 discount, a six-year low, raised Europe by $3 and left the US unchanged. JPMorgan, cited by The National, puts Middle East shipments at 98% of pre-war levels; that figure includes pipeline volumes bypassing Hormuz via Yanbu and is not a measure of strait traffic. Transits. No fresh Windward or Kpler count since the 23-30 September week. GEF AIS (Oct 6): the Iranian coastal core at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm (BARIN 313, HAMD, ATEELA 2, MARIVAN, CASPIA, BAVAN, HASNA, CHLOE, COBA, DAHAB, HEMERA) with no satellite-only contact in the Hormuz frame; Bab el-Mandeb shows named traffic plus about 14 satellite-only contacts in a wider frame, not like-for-like with Monday’s; Suez convoys both ways, dense at Port Said and Alexandria. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL.

Oct 7Day 221 — Another tanker is struck while Gulf exports keep recovering. On the water. The Panama-flagged tanker On Peace was struck by an unidentified projectile in the strait on 6 October, injuring 12 crew, 11 of them Indian (Al Jazeera; Energy News Beat). UKMTO counts nine Hormuz attacks so far in October, and at least one a day since 2 October. Flows. Gulf exports excluding Iran reached about 81% of pre-war levels in September, and about 40% of them now bypass the strait (Al Jazeera; Energy News Beat). Kpler puts Hormuz crude transits at about 10.3 mb/d against a 13.5 mb/d baseline, and Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline is back to about 5.8 mb/d (TradingEconomics). Iran disputes the export figures and calls throughput negligible. Aramco warns nearly 3 billion barrels have been lost since February. Price. Brent (Dec) settled $100.58 (+$0.26) and WTI (Nov) $89.44 (+$0.01) on Tuesday 6 October; Brent dipped to $97.06 intraday (Energy News Beat). Gas. EU storage was 72.83% on gas day 5 October (GIE AGSI+), with the daily gain down to +0.16pp. GEF AIS (Oct 7). Hormuz: the Iranian coastal core (BARIN 313, HAMD, ATEELA 1 and 2, MARIVAN, CASPIA, BAVAN, HASNA, ADITYA, COBA, DAHAB) plus NIKI, MIRAAN, ALIZA and SEAWAY underway and a western net and small-craft group, no satellite-only contact. Bab el-Mandeb: about 14 satellite-only contacts in a wide frame. Suez: dense two-way traffic. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL.

Oct 8Day 222 — No new strike confirmed; the IEA moves to speed up diesel-weighted releases. On the water. No new tanker strike is confirmed for 7-8 October; On Peace (6 October) remains the latest of at least five tankers hit since 1 October, and UKMTO counts nine Hormuz incidents this month. UKMTO also logged the IRGC ordering an inbound tanker to turn back about 20 km north of Khasab on Sunday 4 October; the master complied (Anadolu, citing the UKMTO advisory), so GEF now counts that incident as confirmed. IMF PortWatch recorded 4 vessels on 4 October against a typical 85 a day, but it runs about three days behind and counts AIS broadcasters only. Policy. On 7 October the IEA agreed to speed up stock releases and prioritise diesel; completing the already announced releases quickly could bring about 100 million barrels to market, which analysts and some governments said is not necessarily a new release of that size, and France will reportedly release 10 million barrels of diesel (Reuters; Franceinfo via Reuters, unnamed sources). Diplomacy. A senior Iranian official said US ‘requests and ideas’ on Iran’s nuclear programme conflict with Iranian demands, answering US Vice President JD Vance’s remark that Iran must cut enrichment to end the war (Reuters). Red Sea. The Houthis attacked Aden international airport with missiles and drones as fighting with Saudi-backed government forces intensified (Reuters). Price. Brent (Dec) settled $100.20 (−$0.38) and WTI (Nov) $88.28 (−$1.16) on Wednesday 7 October; EIA reported a US crude draw of 3.2 million barrels for the week to 2 October against an expected build of 1.7 million (Reuters). GEF AIS (Oct 8). Hormuz: the Iranian coastal core (MIR MAHNA, ATEELA 2, MARIVAN, CASPIA, BAVAN, HASNA, CHLOE, COBA, DAHAB) plus NIKA underway and a western net and small-craft group, no satellite-only contact. Bab el-Mandeb: about 11 satellite-only contacts in a wide frame. Suez: dense two-way traffic. Board: HOLDS AT CRITICAL.

Live tracking

The day count and crude prices above update daily from the GEF data layer. For the live tanker-traffic map see marine traffic and the chokepoints tracker; for the week-by-week analysis see the risk analysis briefings; and for the downstream fuel shortages the crisis has caused, see the global shortages map. For country-by-country 2026 forecasts of what comes next, see the US gas price + SPR forecast, UK jet-fuel forecast, Australia retail-fuel forecast, and EU petrol & diesel forecast.