How much oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz?

Before the February 28, 2026 closure, approximately 20% of the world's oil and a large share of its liquefied natural gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz — roughly 21 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products. The strait is the only sea route out of the Persian Gulf, and there is no full-capacity alternative: a couple of pipelines (in Saudi Arabia and the UAE) can bypass a fraction of the volume, but most Gulf crude has nowhere else to go. That is what makes Hormuz the single most important oil chokepoint on Earth: closing it doesn't reroute a fifth of seaborne oil, it removes it.

What countries depend on the Strait of Hormuz?

The Persian Gulf producers whose oil exports transit the strait are Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, Iran, and Bahrain. On the receiving end, the most exposed importers are in Asia: China, India, Japan, and South Korea collectively take the majority of Hormuz crude. Singapore and South Korean refineries that supply Australia, Southeast Asia, and parts of Latin America are themselves significantly supplied by Hormuz crude, creating second-order exposure. The EU and the UK are less directly exposed to Hormuz crude (they rely more on North Sea, North Atlantic and Russian-replacement supply), but they are heavily exposed to the jet fuel and diesel that Asian refineries produce and that European airlines and freight depend on. The US is the least directly exposed but is affected through global crude pricing and indirectly through refined product trade.

When will the Strait of Hormuz reopen?

Reopening began on June 18, 2026. The US-Iran deal was signed June 17, the US lifted the naval blockade June 18, and the first commercial tankers are transiting via the Oman/Iran coastal routes. But reopening is a process, not a switch: the central deep-water channel is still mined (about 80 mines, roughly 40-50 days to clear), Friday flows slowed, and Iran has floated a mandatory transit-insurance charge while the planned Switzerland nuclear talks were cancelled. Kpler projects about 50% of pre-war transit volume within 30 days if there are no setbacks; full normalization (de-mining, evacuating trapped tankers, restarting idled production and restocking) still takes weeks to months, and repairing facilities and restoring pre-war output takes multiple quarters to years (ClearView Energy). The GEF Jun 15/17/19 AIS audit shows the first foreign-flag tonnage returning among a still-domestic-dominated fleet.

What is the alternative to the Strait of Hormuz?

There is no full-capacity alternative. Two pipelines can move some Gulf crude around the strait: the East-West Petroline in Saudi Arabia (Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea, capacity approximately 5 million barrels per day) and the ADCOP pipeline in the UAE (Habshan to Fujairah, capacity approximately 1.5 million barrels per day). Combined, these can move roughly 6.5 million barrels per day — about a third of the pre-war Hormuz flow. The remaining 14+ million barrels per day have no overland alternative. The Bab el-Mandeb at the southern end of the Red Sea is sometimes invoked as an alternative route, but it is itself a chokepoint (and Iran threatened on June 1 to extend closure to Bab el-Mandeb in addition to Hormuz). The structural lack of alternatives is what makes Hormuz qualitatively different from other major chokepoints.

How is the Strait of Hormuz crisis affecting oil and gas prices?

Removing roughly 20% of seaborne oil supply at once pushed crude sharply higher. Brent and WTI have traded roughly 40-55% above their pre-war levels throughout the crisis, with Brent peaking around $126 in early May before easing on hopes of a deal, falling to a six-week low of $91.82 on May 30, rebounding to ~$98 on Wednesday June 3 on the US-Iran kinetic exchange, and then easing again as Energy Secretary Chris Wright's June 9 claim that Hormuz traffic was "rising very meaningfully" drove Brent to settle at $91.11 (−3.4%) and WTI to $88.20 (−6.1%) that Tuesday — before Iran's June 10 retaliatory strikes on US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan lifted Brent to a $93.10 Wednesday settle (+2.2%) and second-day US strikes pushed it to $95.45 intraday Thursday June 11. The shock has cascaded through global refining, aviation fuel availability, retail gasoline (US AAA national average $4.16 vs $2.98 pre-conflict, +44%), and national fuel reserves. The IEA reports cumulative supply losses now exceeding one billion barrels — the largest single oil-supply disruption in its records. More than 30 countries are tracking confirmed fuel shortages or supply stress as a result, with European jet fuel, US strategic reserves, and Australian retail fuel among the most affected systems.

Strait of Hormuz

Strait of Hormuz Status — Is It Open?

Live status of the world's most important oil chokepoint: ELEVATED (recovery-fragile) — two new vessel strikes triggered a four-day US-Iran tit-for-tat (Ever Lovely Jun 25, Kiku Jun 27, Iran strikes US bases in Kuwait + Bahrain Jun 28, 1 Qatari killed); strikes halted “for now”; talks moved Switzerland → Doha Tue Jun 30. GEF 6-frame AIS audit confirms physical flow held — named commercial tonnage continued transiting through. Day count, tanker traffic, oil-price impact — updated daily.

Hormuz Updated July 8, 2026

ELEVATED — recovery-advancing with process friction. Doha wrapped Tuesday without a direct US-Iran meeting (Witkoff and Kushner met only Qatari mediators; Iran won’t resume direct talks until MoU is implemented), but a US-Iran military coordination center was established in Doha and Oman delivered a Hormuz-administration proposal. Physical flow strengthening: Windward 42 transits Sunday (5-vessel Omani convoy, a VLCC entering the Gulf for the first time since February), Kpler 40 Monday, JMIC “steady” over 48 hours. UKMTO threat level SUBSTANTIAL. GEF eight-frame AIS audit Fri-Wed: chokepoint holds 26-32 vessels for a 5th consecutive day; BW LOYALTY persistent across all eight frames; BW Group adds a second vessel (BOW VICTORY). Do NOT flip to closed — Iranian preconditions on further talks are the process-friction qualifier to watch

Days since closure 121 since Feb 28, 2026

Tanker traffic ~75% pre-war Persian Gulf exports recovering; ~600 still stranded

Brent crude ~$73 Tue Jun 30 close ~$73 (Q2 close, worst quarterly decline since 2020) · supply-recovery floor holding

Pre-war oil share ~20% of world seaborne oil

The US-Iran MoU signed June 17 has just survived its most serious operational test, but it survived. Iran shut the waterway de facto on February 28, 2026, the IRGC formally declared it closed on June 11, and the 14-point interim deal was signed on June 17 (reopen Hormuz toll-free for at least 60 days, end the US naval blockade, lift sanctions on Iranian oil, 60 days of follow-on nuclear talks). The US lifted the Hormuz blockade June 18; reopening began. Then this past week, two new vessel strikes triggered the most operationally serious test of the MoU since signing: Iranian one-way drones hit M/V Ever Lovely (Singapore-flag, Thursday June 25 exiting near Oman) and M/T KIKU (Panama-flag carrying 2M+ bbl of Qatari oil, Saturday June 27 with bridge damage). The US struck Iranian sites Friday and again Saturday (10 targets in and near the strait); Iran struck US bases at Ali Al Salem in Kuwait and Port Salman in Bahrain Sunday June 28 — one Qatari citizen was killed by shrapnel. By Sunday evening both sides agreed to halt strikes “for now”; talks were moved from Switzerland to Doha for Tuesday June 30, with the focus shifting from nuclear to Hormuz shipping security. UKMTO raised the threat level MODERATE → SUBSTANTIAL Saturday. Physical flow continued through the entire kinetic cycle. CENTCOM stated “commercial vessel transits continue.” GEF’s independent six-frame AIS audit (Friday Jun 26 08:42 → Monday Jun 29 08:12, ~71.5 hours) recorded the Hormuz chokepoint holding at 26-32 vessels per frame with full day-over-day name turnover; named commercial tonnage including BW LOYALTY, KUWAIT PROSPERITY, CAMEROON PROSPERITY, ROTTERDAM ENERGY, BITUMEN STAR, IMPERIOUS, and notably Chinese-flag SHEN ZHOU on Monday morning continued transiting through. The IMO had been evacuating stranded ships via the Omani coastal route (115 vessels and 2,500 sailors moved out since Tuesday) before suspending the operation after Ever Lovely; ~600 ships and ~11,000 sailors remain stranded. Persian Gulf exports have rebuilt to roughly 75% of pre-war volume (Saudi Arabia loading Ras Tanura), and Brent fully unwound the war premium Friday — close $73.52, intraday low $71.94, the lowest level since February 27, the war’s start. GEF rates the strait ELEVATED — recovery-fragile: kinetic noise has materially increased operational risk, but physical flow held and the Doha session Tuesday is the next hinge.

Why the Strait of Hormuz matters

Hormuz is the narrow sea passage between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. Before the 2026 closure, roughly 20% of the world's oil and a large share of its liquefied natural gas passed through it — and crucially, there is no full-capacity alternative route out of the Gulf. A couple of pipelines (in Saudi Arabia and the UAE) can bypass a fraction of the volume, but most Gulf crude has nowhere else to go. That is what makes Hormuz the single most important oil chokepoint on Earth: closing it doesn't reroute a fifth of seaborne oil, it removes it.

The impact on oil prices and fuel supply

Removing that much supply at once pushed crude sharply higher. Brent and WTI have traded roughly 40-50% above their pre-war levels throughout the crisis, with Brent peaking around $126 in early May before easing on hopes of a deal. The shock did not stop at the oil price: it cascaded through global refining, aviation-fuel availability, retail gasoline, and national fuel reserves, producing confirmed fuel shortages across more than thirty countries and the largest single oil-supply disruption in IEA recorded history — cumulative losses now exceeding one billion barrels. This is the core idea the whole site tracks: a disruption at one node propagates through the entire energy system.

Is a reopening close?

Today (June 26, 2026) marks Day 118 — and the reopening has just absorbed its first real safety shock. The war premium had fully unwound: Brent settled $73.74 on Wednesday June 24 (−4.3%, its lowest since before the Feb 28 war) and touched the pre-war $72.44 on Thursday June 25, at or below the Feb-27 pre-war close of $72.48, with the prompt spread in bearish contango and WTI below $70. Then, on Thursday afternoon, a cargo vessel was struck by a projectile in the Gulf of Oman off Dahit — US officials told Reuters that Iran fired on it — and crude reversed hard: Brent bounced +2.1% to a $75.26 settle (WTI +2% to $71.92). The strike's bigger mark was operational: the IMO PAUSED its seafarer-evacuation framework, leaving the 11,000+ crew stranded since February in limbo while it reconfirms safety guarantees. Even so, the underlying flow kept building — Kpler counted 70 Hormuz crossings on June 24 (+105% day-on-day, 53 commercial) and US officials reported 20M+ barrels exiting the strait in a single day, near pre-war pace, with the IEA putting UAE exports around 85% of pre-war volumes. But reopening is not resolution: Iran's IRGC now insists safe passage is only available via Iran-designated routes, has turned back ships on the Omani corridor and threatened non-compliant vessels, and the deal's Lebanon clause is fraying (an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire collapsed within 24 hours). On June 26 crude is easing again, on track for a third straight weekly drop (~38% off the wartime peak). The honest read at Day 118: the acute supply shock is over and the premium had fully unwound, but the Oman strike, the evacuation pause and the routing dispute show the 60-day window is contestable, not settled. GEF holds Hormuz at ELEVATED (recovery-fragile).

How the crisis unfolded

Feb 28Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping after US and Israeli strikes; the war begins.

Apr 8A short-lived two-week ceasefire allows limited safe passage; it later breaks down.

Apr 13The US adds a counter-blockade of Iranian ports — both Gulf maritime corridors are now shut.

May 16The IEA reports cumulative supply losses exceeding one billion barrels — the largest disruption in its records.

May 23-24A US-Iran deal to reopen the strait is described as "largely negotiated"; a handful of LNG tankers transit.

May 26Five supertankers clear the strait — the first non-Iranian VLCC transits since the closure (Eagle Verona, Universal Winner, Eagle Veracruz, Nissos Keros + 1). Bloomberg: "beginnings of a recalibration."

May 27-28Brent settles $96.67 (5-week low) / WTI breaks below $90 to $88.68 on rising deal odds; White House dismisses Iran's leaked draft deal as "a complete fabrication"; framework remains unsigned.

Jun 1Deal track reverses: Iran reportedly suspends US messaging channel (Tasnim) after Israeli strikes in Lebanon, signals weighing full closure of both Hormuz AND Bab el-Mandeb. Crude rebounds — Brent +5% intraday Mon, settles ~$94.99.

Jun 3Standoff turns kinetic: US CENTCOM confirms strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island (IRGC "missile city" in the strait). Iran ballistic missiles — 2 toward Kuwait fall short, 3 toward Bahrain intercepted. IRGC claims 5th Fleet HQ strikes; CENTCOM: "FALSE." 6th vessel disabled under US blockade. Brent rebounds toward $98, third straight session of gains.

Jun 5-7Crude breaks down on demand-side + de-escalation push: Brent -2.3% to $93.05 Fri close, WTI to $90.30. Trump publicly criticises Israeli Beirut strikes, urges Netanyahu to stand down, calls Tehran to resume negotiations. OPEC+ approves third monthly output increase (+188 kbpd for July) at Jun 5 JMMC. Brief explosion at Oman's Mina Al Fahal export terminal — operations resumed.

Jun 8Day 100 milestone — longer than every post-WWII chokepoint closure on record. Strait still effectively closed; IEA cumulative supply losses exceed 1 billion barrels.

Jun 9Day 101 — direct US-Iran kinetic cycle reopens. Iran shoots down US Army Apache helicopter patrolling the strait (Trump confirms two pilots safe). US CENTCOM "self-defense strikes" on Iranian ports and islands in response that evening. Energy Sec Wright (Atlantic Council): Hormuz traffic "rising very meaningfully" — Brent settles −3.4% to $91.11, WTI −6.1% to $88.20.

Jun 10Day 102 — US strikes ~20 targets; Iran hits Gulf US bases. US fires 49 Tomahawks at ~20 targets, some within 40 miles of Tehran (Trump, Fox News), in retaliation for the Apache downing. Iran fires drones + ballistic missiles at US facilities in Kuwait (Ali Al-Salem and Ahmad al-Jaber air bases), Bahrain (Sheikh Issa air base / 5th Fleet) and Jordan (Azraq) — CENTCOM says all failed to hit intended targets, but Kuwaiti authorities confirm 1 killed and 60+ injured. Trump claims US "secretly moved" 200 ships + 100M+ barrels through Hormuz; IMF PortWatch shows 2 transits Jun 7 vs 94/day baseline. EIA WPSR: crude −7.23M w/e Jun 5, 7th straight draw. Brent settles $93.10 (+2.2%).

Jun 11Day 103 — IRGC formally declares the strait closed. "Closed to all vessels, including oil tankers and commercial ships... any vessel attempting to transit will be targeted" (IRGC Telegram). CENTCOM disputes: "Commercial ships are continuing to transit." Second-day US strikes hit radar, air-defense and ground-control sites at Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, Jask and Sirik; CENTCOM declares strikes "completed," lifting hopes talks could resume. Brent trades $94.58–95.45 intraday before paring to ~$94; WTI ~$92.

Jun 12Day 104 — deal signing possible this weekend. Trump calls off Thursday-night strikes, declares "a great settlement of the war with Iran... subject to finalization of documents"; says signing could come this weekend, likely in Europe. Fars (semi-official): Tehran likely to accept. Earlier in the week Trump threatened to "take" Kharg Island. Brent settles $90.38 Thu (−2.9%), trades ~$89 Fri — 2-month low; WTI $87.71 → ~$86. EIA June STEO: global demand now forecast to FALL 1.1 mb/d in 2026. Caveat: mine clearance + idled fields + repairs = months to normal flow even if signed.

Jun 13Day 105 — deal at the one-yard line; open-vs-closed contested. Mediator Pakistan reports a "final, agreed-upon text"; Bessent says signing could come "this weekend or Monday" (80% per a US official, Vance to attend). But the sides describe different deals — US: full nuclear dismantlement; Iranian media (Mehr 14-pt draft): "no new nuclear commitments." Friday night Iran launched multiple one-way drones at commercial ships; CENTCOM downed all, says corridor "remains open for transit"; Iran claimed it stopped a tanker. Brent $87.33 Fri settle (−3.4%), 8-week low; WTI $84.88.

Jun 14Day 106 — Trump says the deal signs today; Iran has not committed. Trump posts that the deal "is scheduled to get signed tomorrow [today], and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL," timing the signing to his birthday. Pakistan readies an electronic signing within 24 hours. But Iran's FM spokesman Baqaei calls a signing "unlikely" today, citing "the hesitancy of the other side." ClearView Energy: even after a signature, physical reopening takes "weeks to months," full normalization "multiple quarters to years." GEF Jun 12-14 AIS audit: Hormuz still ~18 vessels, domestic-flag only.

Jun 15Day 107 — Trump declares the deal "complete" and orders the blockade lifted; strait stays shut. Over the weekend Trump posts that "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete," authorizing the "toll-free opening" of the Strait and the "immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade" — then adds the opening comes "upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal." Pakistan's PM Sharif and Iran's Deputy FM Gharibabadi both confirm the deal is reached and the MOU text finalized; the formal electronic signing is set for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland, with 60 days of follow-on nuclear talks. The naval blockade is being stood down, but the strait remains physically closed pending the signing and mine-clearing; GEF AIS still shows domestic-flag traffic only. Full commercial flow remains weeks out — the de-escalation is real on paper, unproven on the water.

Jun 17Day 109 — the deal is SIGNED. Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian sign the 14-point interim MOU on Wednesday night: the Strait of Hormuz reopens toll-free for at least 60 days, the US ends its naval blockade (with until July 19 to fully lift it), sanctions on Iranian oil are waived, and Iran is to clear all mines within 30 days. The fate of Iran's nuclear program — enrichment, stockpile, missiles — is left to 60 days of follow-on talks. Iranian hardliners and Israel both signal reservations.

Jun 18Day 110 — blockade lifted, first transits. The US lifts the Hormuz blockade and the first commercial vessels move — at least seven transit Thursday (MarineTraffic via CNN), including the first Saudi-owned tankers since February; ~10 million barrels are observed transiting or positioned near the strait. Iran designates the central deep-water channel a mine-danger zone, so traffic uses the mine-free northern (Iranian-waters) and southern (Omani-waters) coastal routes, with JMIC advising vessels hug the Oman coast. Brent settles $79.55.

Jun 19Day 111 — reopening turns stop-start; Switzerland talks cancelled. After Thursday's surge, Friday-morning outbound flows slow — no vessels seen leaving the Gulf — and Tehran floats a mandatory transit-insurance charge (currently free), reasserting control. The planned US-Iran nuclear talks in Switzerland are cancelled, denting confidence in the deal's durability; southern-Lebanon fighting continues. The GEF Jun 15/17/19 AIS audit shows the turn: Hormuz still ~20-25 vessels and domestic-dominated, but the first non-domestic names (DESH VAIBHAV, NIKI, ATEELA) now appear. Brent steadies near $80 (week −8.5%).

Jun 20Day 112 — reopening continues into the weekend; operators stay cautious. With oil markets closed for the weekend, attention turns to the implementation clock: Iran is to clear all mines within 30 days under the MOU, though US officials estimate full clearance could take up to six months, and the US has until July 19 to fully lift its port blockade. Recent transits run at roughly two dozen vessels a day versus 100+ pre-war, and major operators stay wary — Mitsui OSK Lines says it will not resume transits until the strait is proven safe in practice. The strait is reopening, but normal throughput is still weeks away.

Jun 21Day 113 — contested re-closure. Iran's military command and the IRGC re-declare the strait closed (announced Saturday Jun 20), warning vessels off and citing Israel's continued Lebanon strikes (which killed 16+ Saturday) and US non-implementation of the deal's first clause. The US disputes it: CENTCOM says Iran does not control the strait and that 55 merchant ships and 17+ million barrels transited Saturday, and Iran's own foreign ministry tells Tasnim shipping is "operating normally." The GEF Jun 20/21 AIS audit backs the on-the-water read — ~30 vessels in-frame both mornings with the foreign-flag tonnage fully turning over (movement, not a sealed strait). Bürgenstock quadrilateral talks open Sunday in Switzerland (US, Iran, Pakistan, Qatar); Day 1 produces agreement in principle on a Hormuz de-confliction channel. Sunday-evening futures open flat/soft, confirming the market reads the IRGC re-declaration as posturing.

Jun 22Day 114 — Bürgenstock Day 2; de-confliction channel agreed; IRGC re-declaration contested. Talks extend to a second day, with Qatar and Pakistan citing "encouraging progress." The stumbling block: President Pezeshkian says Iran will "never back down from the right to enrich uranium" — a direct conflict with US demands; Trump threatens "hit very hard again" if Hezbollah doesn't stand down. The IRGC re-declaration (Jun 20) remains contested: CENTCOM (Capt. Hawkins): "Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic continues to flow." Iran's own MFA: shipping "operating normally." GEF AIS Jun 22: ~30 vessels in-frame, names turning over. Brent Mon intraday ~$79 (−1.9% from $80.59 Fri close) — no gap-up, confirming market treats re-declaration as posturing. Board: ELEVATED (recovery-fragile).

Jun 23Day 115 — Bürgenstock talks concluded; de-confliction channel operative; Brent $78.2 (Mon Jun 22 settle, −3.0%; war premium nearly fully unwound). The Bürgenstock quadrilateral process (US-Iran, Pakistan, Qatar) concluded with the Hormuz de-confliction channel as the principal agreed deliverable. The uranium enrichment impasse — Pezeshkian: Iran will "never back down from the right to enrich" — remains unresolved and is the variable that matters most for the next 30 days. IRGC re-declaration (Jun 20) continues to be contested: CENTCOM + AIS confirm traffic still flowing; Iran MFA maintains shipping "operating normally." Central channel still mined (~80 mines, ~40-50 days to clear). Bolivia re-escalated to active shortage (state of emergency Jun 20; military deployed; 14 dead; 50 days of blockades in La Paz/El Alto/Cochabamba). Australia: Geelong RCCU restarted Jun 23 at >90% capacity (alkylation unit offline into 2027). Board: ELEVATED (recovery-fragile).

Jun 24Day 116 — IMO evacuation begins; Denmark joins reopening mission; crude at 3.5-month low. The IMO starts implementing a plan to evacuate the 11,000+ seafarers stranded in the Gulf since Feb 28, coordinated with Iran, Oman and the US; with the central channel mined, ships exit north or south of the old traffic-separation scheme. Denmark announces it will join the international mission to reopen the strait. Transit stays volatile under the contested re-closure — ~39 vessels Monday Jun 23 (Kpler) after ~93 over the Jun 19-21 weekend, still far below the 100+/day pre-war norm. Crude keeps falling: Brent ~$77 Tue Jun 23 settle, easing to ~$76.4 Wed (3.5-month low); WTI ~$73.2 (−0.88%). The driver has flipped to supply — dollar at a 13-month high, reopened-Hormuz flow, and a US 60-day license letting Iran sell oil. Board: ELEVATED (recovery-fragile).

Jun 25Day 117 — war premium fully unwinds, then an Oman strike snaps it back and the IMO pauses evacuation. Brent touched the pre-war $72.44 intraday (at/below the Feb-27 close of $72.48) with the prompt spread in bearish contango and WTI under $70 — the premium fully gone — before a cargo vessel was struck by a projectile off Oman (US officials: Iran fired on it) and crude reversed up, Brent settling $75.26 (+2.1%) and WTI $71.92 (+2%). The IMO PAUSED its seafarer-evacuation framework pending safety guarantees; the IRGC insisted transit is safe only on Iran-designated routes and turned back ships on the Omani corridor. Underlying flow still built — Kpler logged 70 crossings Jun 24 (+105% d/d, 53 commercial). Board: ELEVATED (recovery-fragile).

Jun 26Day 118 — US strikes Iran in response to Ever Lovely; Brent settles $73.52 (intraday $71.94 lowest since Feb 27). Late Friday: US strikes Iranian “surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air defense sites, drone storage facilities, and minelayer capabilities” in retaliation for the Jun 25 Ever Lovely strike (CENTCOM/NPR/CBS). Brent Fri close $73.52 (Investing.com CFD; intraday low $71.94 — lowest since Feb 27 the war’s start). WTI $70.24 (intraday $68.86, lowest since Feb 2026). Brent 10%+ weekly drop, the largest in a month — war premium fully unwound on supply-recovery read: Saudi Arabia loading Ras Tanura, Persian Gulf exports ~75% of pre-war. Goldman cut Q4 Brent forecast to $80 from $90.

Jun 27Day 119 — M/T Kiku struck (2M+ bbl Qatari oil); US strikes 10 Iranian targets; UKMTO MODERATE → SUBSTANTIAL. Saturday 04:30 ET: Iranian one-way drone hits Panama-flag M/T KIKU near Hormuz — 2M+ bbl Qatari oil bound Fujairah, bridge damage, crew safe (UKMTO/CENTCOM/Fox Business). UKMTO raises Hormuz threat MODERATE → SUBSTANTIAL (“mariners advised of mines, expect naval presence as clearance operations continue”). Saturday evening: US strikes 10 Iranian military targets in and near the strait. Trump (Truth Social): “AGAIN! There may come a point... the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist!” JMIC (US Navy) widened the Omani route — direct challenge to Iran’s traffic control. Iran’s IRGC Navy: “Vessel traffic outside [Iran-declared] routes is extremely dangerous and prohibited.” Three foreign tankers attempted unauthorized passage Friday and were rerouted toward the Persian Gulf.

Jun 28Day 120 — Iran strikes US bases in Kuwait + Bahrain; 1 Qatari killed; both sides halt “for now”; Doha talks open today. IRGC launched ballistic missiles and drones at US Ali Al Salem AB (Kuwait) and US 5th Fleet Port Salman (Bahrain) early Sunday. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Egypt all condemned. ONE QATARI CITIZEN KILLED by shrapnel from “military operations witnessed in the region” (Qatar MOI). By Sunday evening both sides agreed to halt strikes “for now” — US official to Axios: “vessels can move freely.” Talks moved from Switzerland to Doha for Tuesday June 30; focus shifted from nuclear to Hormuz shipping security. MoU under strain but neither collapsed nor superseded.

Jun 29Day 121 — strikes paused; GEF six-frame AIS audit confirms physical flow held; crude recovering modestly. Both sides hold. GEF AIS audit covering Friday Jun 26 08:42 → Monday Jun 29 08:12 (6 frames over ~71.5 hours): Hormuz chokepoint held 26-32 vessels per frame with full day-over-day name turnover. Named commercial tonnage including BW LOYALTY, KUWAIT PROSPERITY, CAMEROON PROSPERITY, TOGO PROSPERITY, ROTTERDAM ENERGY, NORD VICTOR, BITUMEN STAR, IMPERIOUS, NEW STAR, and notably Chinese-flag SHEN ZHOU continued transiting through and across the strike weekend. Monday underway ratio (~11 of 30) ticked up vs the weekend baseline (~7-9) — normal business-day rhythm. Mon open: WTI back to ~$70, Brent ~$73 — modest recovery, not panic. Board: ELEVATED, recovery-fragile. Doha Tuesday is the next critical hinge.

Jun 30Day 122 — Doha session opens; AIS Tue morning shows composition shift toward Western/Asian commercial tonnage; crude recovers modestly. Brent Mon Jun 29 close $72.60 (−1.3% from Fri $73.52); WTI ~$69.7 (TradingEconomics: “rebounding slightly from a four-month low”). Tue Jun 30 morning open: Brent ~$73.6, WTI ~$69.9 — modest recovery on the kinetic-pause-plus-Doha-opening read. Reuters Jun 29: “Iranian and U.S. technical teams working” in Doha; agenda shifted from nuclear to Hormuz shipping security. GEF added a two-frame Tue read (08:19 local, ~71 hours after the Fri baseline): chokepoint population holds in the 26-32 band, but composition shifts from heavy Iran-domestic concentration on Mon evening → MORE NAMED WESTERN/ASIAN COMMERCIAL TONNAGE in the central transit corridor on Tue morning (Japanese Aframax KOHZAN MARU V, Singapore-based Navig8 Group product tankers NAVIG8 PRECISION + NAVIG8 WOLF, foreign-flag commercial ECUADOR PROSPERITY, MERCURY HOPE; plus BW LOYALTY persistent across ALL seven frames Fri-Tue — a single vessel loitering the chokepoint through the entire kinetic window with no operator withdrawal). The Tue-morning Navig8 + Kohzan Maru V appearance is the strongest single signal of operator-confidence rebuild we’ve read since the weekend cycle began. UKMTO threat level remains SUBSTANTIAL. ~600 ships / 11,000 sailors still stranded; IMO evacuation still paused pending Doha outcome. Board: ELEVATED, recovery-fragile, HOLDING. Doha is today’s hinge.

Jul 1Day 123 — Doha wraps without a direct US-Iran meeting, but a coordination center is established; physical flow strengthens; Q2 closes with the worst quarterly decline since 2020. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry confirmed Tuesday that Witkoff and Kushner met only with Qatari mediators — “very positive conversations with regional leaders” — not with Iranian officials directly. Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, said Tehran will not enter further negotiations with the US until the MoU’s terms are implemented. But concrete deliverables emerged from the session: a US-Iran military coordination center was established in Doha to manage disputes and de-escalate tensions; Oman delivered a proposal on Hormuz administration; a Wednesday Iran-Qatar bilateral session covers MoU implementation and the release of $6bn in frozen Iranian assets. Iran is hardening its specific positions — no transit fees for 60 days, but reserving the right to introduce charges afterward (opposed by the US, EU and Gulf states) — and wants to co-regulate the strait with Oman, or unilaterally if Oman declines. Physical flow strengthened despite the diplomatic friction: Windward counted 42 transits Sunday (28 inbound, 14 outbound) including a five-vessel southern-corridor convoy near the Omani coast with a very-large crude tanker entering the Gulf for the first time since anchoring in February; Kpler counted 40 Monday; JMIC’s security report says commercial traffic “remained steady over the last 48 hours.” UKMTO threat level stays SUBSTANTIAL. GEF’s two-frame audit (Tue 23:02 → Wed 07:58 local) shows the chokepoint holding 26-32 vessels for a 5th consecutive day: BW LOYALTY persistent across eight consecutive frames since Friday, BW Group now showing a second vessel (BOW VICTORY), Union Maritime’s “Prosperity” fleet expanding to a sixth named vessel (FINLAND PROSPERITY), and UAE-flag AL BATEEN adding regional-operator confirmation. Brent Tue Jun 30 closed ~$73, capping a second quarter that recorded its worst quarterly decline since 2020 — Brent and WTI both down roughly 30% on the quarter. Board: ELEVATED, recovery-advancing with process friction — the AIS strengthening and coordination-center establishment support softening from “recovery-fragile,” but Iran’s preconditions on further talks and the post-60-day fee reservation keep a friction qualifier in place.

Jul 3Day 125 — transit count climbs to 43 (Jul 1); barrel flow already near pre-war even as vessel count lags; talks paused for Khamenei funeral. Independent AIS analytics (Windward Maritime Intelligence, switching source from GEF's own screenshot audit this cycle) puts Jul 1 Hormuz transits at 43 total (24 inbound, 19 outbound) — up from 41 the prior day (Jun 30-Jul 1: 24 in, 17 out) — against a pre-war baseline widely cited at 84-140/day, so throughput remains roughly a third to half of normal. Inbound traffic Jul 1 was tanker-dominated (12 of 24) on a northern-corridor majority (13 of 24); 3 inbound and 1 outbound transited dark (no AIS). A sanctioned crude tanker moved outbound with an estimated 1.99M barrels (~$135M) from Kharg Island bound for China; a separately sanctioned tanker with a documented dark-activity history transited inbound; a foreign-flagged vessel ran aground near Larak Island after deviating from Iran’s designated route (unresolved). Barrel volume is recovering faster than vessel count: UAE exports are back to ~3.9M bpd (pre-war level) and Saudi to ~90% of pre-war, pushing combined Hormuz flows above 10M bpd per US officials — implying larger per-vessel loads rather than full traffic normalization. Crude has fully unwound the war premium: Brent settled $70.57 Thu Jul 2 (−0.83%), WTI $67.47 (−0.95%), both the lowest since Feb 27 (pre-war). The next round of Doha talks (Kushner/Witkoff) is paused for the funeral of former Supreme Leader Khamenei, beginning Jul 4; Iran continues to press for maritime administrative control of the strait as a condition of full normalization — the live, unresolved friction point. Board: WATCH, recovery continuing but incomplete.

Jul 4Day 126 — Khamenei's public funeral opens in Tehran; GEF's own 6-frame AIS audit corroborates Windward and a third independent source, Marisks. Extending GEF's operator screenshot audit to six frames (Jul 1 22:51 through Jul 4 07:04, ~56 hours) holds Hormuz in-frame counts in a stable 33-42 vessel band. The persistent “loitering core” narrows on the newest frame: five vessels (ATARAKTOS, BARIN 313, COBA, GAS RGA, MARIVAN) held across the first five frames, but ATARAKTOS and GAS RGA finally departed by Jul 4 — only BARIN 313, COBA and MARIVAN remain present in every frame across the full window. BW LOYALTY, persistent across 8+ frames through Jul 1, has not reappeared since. Corroboration is now three-way: Windward's Jul 1 total-transit count (43, up from 41 the prior day), Marisks' weekly count via CNN (335 transits last week, ~48/day average, similar pace this week, up to 215 logged by end of Jul 3), and GEF's own in-frame counts (33-42) all agree on the same picture — roughly a third to half of the widely-cited 84-140/day pre-war baseline. Barrel volume continues to outpace vessel-count recovery: UAE exports back to ~3.9M bpd (pre-war level), Saudi ~90% of pre-war, combined Hormuz flows above 10M bpd. Crude holds at its lowest since Feb 27 pre-war (Brent $70.57, WTI $67.47, Thu Jul 2 close — no new settlement over the Jul 4 holiday weekend). The dominant story today: Khamenei's public funeral opened this morning at Tehran's Imam Khomeini Mosalla for a 24-hour farewell ceremony, the first stage of a 6-day, multi-city, two-country ceremony (Tehran, Qom, Mashhad, Najaf, Karbala) expected to draw 15-20 million mourners — the largest state funeral in Iran's history. The next round of Doha talks (Kushner/Witkoff) stays paused through at least Jul 9; Iran continues to press for maritime administrative control of the strait as a condition of full normalization. Board: WATCH, recovery continuing but incomplete.

Jul 5Day 127 — a 7-frame, 82-hour audit confirms a genuine 3-vessel loitering core; the Larak Island grounding is identified; France and the UK offer a naval mission, and Iran warns them off. Extending GEF's operator screenshot audit to seven frames (Jul 1 22:51 through Jul 5 09:11, ~82 hours) confirms BARIN 313, COBA and MARIVAN present in every single frame — a genuine multi-day loitering signature. ATARAKTOS and GAS RGA, which had dropped out of the sixth frame, reappeared in the seventh, correcting the prior update's framing: that was a temporary cycle-out, not a permanent departure. In-frame counts continue to hold in the established 33-42 band. TankerTrackers has identified the foreign-flagged vessel that ran aground near Larak Island (first reported Jul 1) as the ARISTA (IMO 9348493, Comoros-flagged), part of Iran's sanctioned Shamkhani network, under US OFAC sanctions since last summer — reportedly stuck in the same spot for some time. A new diplomatic friction point has emerged: France and the UK have offered to deploy a multinational naval mission supporting freedom of navigation through the strait (announced Jul 3); Iran warned both countries on Jul 4 against any military movement in Hormuz waters. Iran separately warned vessels (Jul 2) to stick to Tehran-designated transit routes, after a growing number began using a route closer to the Omani coast that reduces Iran's practical leverage over the chokepoint. On the unresolved tolls question, Doha reporting indicates Iran intends to introduce transit tolls in mid-August, once the 60-day free-transit window from the Jun 17 MoU expires — a position the US opposes (Vice President Vance: "not going to end in a place where the Iranians are collecting tolls"). All talks remain paused for Khamenei's funeral, which runs through Jul 9 with burial at Mashhad; Tehran's airspace closes entirely on Monday, Jul 6, for the funeral procession. Crude holds at its lowest since Feb 27 pre-war (Brent $70.57, WTI $67.47, Thu Jul 2 close — no new settlement over the holiday weekend). Board: WATCH, recovery continuing but incomplete, with a live routing/tolls dispute still unresolved.

Jul 6Day 128 — an 8-frame, 108-hour audit reconfirms the persistent core; a weekend of unexplained vessel U-turns normalizes; OPEC+ adds to the price slide. Extending GEF's operator screenshot audit to eight frames (Jul 1 22:51 through Jul 6 08:03, ~108 hours) reconfirms BARIN 313, COBA and MARIVAN present in every single frame — an extremely robust persistent-core signature at this point in the audit. Separately, TradingEconomics reported that several vessels made unexplained U-turns and detours along the strait over the weekend (Saturday, Jul 4), before traffic showed signs of normalizing again by Sunday (Jul 5) — an anomaly that remains unexplained but did not develop into a reversal of the broader recovery trend. On the price side, OPEC+ has agreed to a further increase in production targets, adding supply-side pressure that contributed to crude extending its slide into Monday: Brent traded around $71.9 and WTI around $68.3, both continuing multi-month lows, while US gasoline held at $2.91 a gallon, near its lowest level in more than three months. Iran's cumulative crude shipments have now exceeded 40 million barrels since the US ended its naval blockade, according to a US official, and combined Hormuz oil flows remain above 10 million barrels per day. All talks remain paused for the funeral of former Supreme Leader Khamenei, now in its third day of a six-day, multi-city ceremony running through Jul 9; Tehran's airspace closed entirely today for the funeral procession. The France/UK naval-mission offer and Iran's warning against it, along with Iran's signaled mid-August toll plans, remain unresolved diplomatic frictions. Board: WATCH, recovery continuing but incomplete, with the weekend anomaly and the routing/tolls dispute both still open questions.

Jul 7Day 129 — a 9-frame, 133-hour audit remains among the most robust of the cycle; Russia's fuel crisis is now near-nationwide per a fresh CNN analysis. Extending GEF's operator screenshot audit to nine frames (Jul 1 22:51 through Jul 7 07:47, ~133 hours, 5.5 days) reconfirms BARIN 313, COBA and MARIVAN present in every single frame. OPEC+ agreed a further output increase (188 kb/d for August, agreed Jul 5), adding to supply-side price pressure alongside the Hormuz recovery itself; Saudi Arabia separately cut its August Asia selling price to a discount to the Oman/Dubai benchmark, the first such move since the 2020/2015 price wars. Crude held near multi-month lows: Brent traded around $72.1 and WTI around $68.7. Separately, a CNN analysis published and updated Jul 6 found gasoline shortages or reported disruptions now affecting almost all of Russia's 83 regions, with more than 50 officially confirmed and unofficial reports of disruption in nearly all the rest — a broader framing than any single prior region-count, though not necessarily a higher number than the existing 56-region tally. At least three regions, including Irkutsk and Transbaikal, have declared a "state of heightened alert." Russia has begun importing gasoline from Kazakhstan and Belarus to ease the shortages; Putin described the situation as "not critical" and "temporary" this week while acknowledging ongoing queues. This remains a story entirely independent of Hormuz, deepening on its own timeline regardless of the strait's recovery. All talks remain paused for Khamenei's funeral, now in its fourth day of six, running through Jul 9. Board: WATCH, recovery continuing but incomplete.

Jul 8Day 130 — three vessels struck near Oman; the Qatari LNG carrier Al Rekayyat catches fire; the recovery narrative this timeline tracked all week is interrupted. In the early hours of Tuesday, Jul 7, the Qatari state-owned LNG carrier Al Rekayyat (Nakilat, fully laden, having loaded at Ras Laffan) was struck near its engine room roughly 8 nautical miles east of Limah, Oman — a fire broke out and the crew evacuated; maritime security sources told Reuters the vessel remains at risk of further detonation given its LNG cargo. Separately, the Saudi-owned crude tanker Wedyan (319,990 dwt) was struck while outbound near the Omani coast, and a third vessel was hit by a drone with reported minor structural damage. Qatar's Foreign Ministry formally condemned the Al Rekayyat attack and holds Iran "completely legally accountable"; Iranian state television claimed the vessels had been warned to use Iran's designated route near Larak Island and were sailing without authorization — the same justification pattern used in the Jun 25-28 Ever Lovely/Kiku strikes. GEF's own AIS audit had tracked a stable 33-42 in-frame band across nine frames through Jul 7 morning; real transit data confirms a decline was already underway even before Tuesday's strikes — MarineTraffic counted 43 transits Jul 3, 34 Jul 4, and just 31 Jul 5, and Windward reports volume dropped further after the attacks. Two convoys totaling 12 commercial ships are now gathered in Oman, apparently awaiting conditions to depart via the southern corridor. Of the 25 ships that transited Monday, only 3 used the Oman route with transponders active despite naval forces reiterating its availability. Crude reacted immediately after weeks of decline: Brent touched ~$73, WTI ~$69.5. All formal talks remain suspended for Khamenei's funeral, with burial scheduled for Jul 9 in Mashhad; Qatar says the next Doha session will be scheduled "as soon as possible" after the ceremonies conclude. Board: holding WATCH per the precedent set by the Jun 25-28 exchange (real strikes without a confirmed flow break), but direction reverts to WORSENING this week — the routing dispute has produced real damage incidents again, not just rhetoric.

Live tracking

The day count and crude prices above update daily from the GEF data layer. For the live tanker-traffic map see marine traffic and the chokepoints tracker; for the week-by-week analysis see the risk analysis briefings; and for the downstream fuel shortages the crisis has caused, see the global shortages map. For country-by-country 2026 forecasts of what comes next, see the US gas price + SPR forecast, UK jet-fuel forecast, Australia retail-fuel forecast, and EU petrol & diesel forecast.