HORMUZ / DOHA TUESDAY (Day 121, June 29). The week brought the most operationally serious test of the June 17 MoU since it was signed. Two new vessel strikes — M/V Ever Lovely (Singapore-flagged cargo, Thursday June 25 exiting the strait along the Omani coast) and M/T Kiku (Panama-flagged, carrying more than two million barrels of Qatari oil bound for Fujairah, Saturday June 27 at 04:30 ET near the strait) — triggered a four-day tit-for-tat. The US struck Iranian “surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air defense sites, drone storage facilities, and minelayer capabilities” late Friday June 26 in response to Ever Lovely; CENTCOM then struck ten Iranian military targets in and near the strait Saturday evening after Kiku, with Trump posting that Iran had violated the ceasefire “AGAIN” and warning “there may come a point... the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist.” Iran’s IRGC then launched ballistic missiles and drones at US Ali Al Salem airbase in Kuwait and the US Fifth Fleet at Port Salman in Bahrain early Sunday June 28. One Qatari citizen was killed by shrapnel from those operations (Qatar Ministry of Interior). Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Egypt all condemned the Iranian strikes. By Sunday evening both sides had agreed to halt strikes “for now,” with a US official telling Axios that “vessels can move freely.” The Switzerland talks scheduled for this week were moved to Doha, set for Tuesday June 30, with the focus shifting from nuclear to Hormuz shipping security. UKMTO raised the Hormuz threat level MODERATE → SUBSTANTIAL Saturday June 27 with the advisory that “mariners should expect naval presence as clearance operations continue.”
The operationally important point: physical flow continued through the entire kinetic cycle. CENTCOM stated directly during the exchange: “Commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz continue. US forces remain vigilant, lethal, and ready.” GEF’s independent AIS audit covering six frames over approximately 71.5 hours (Fri Jun 26 08:42 → Mon Jun 29 08:12) recorded the Hormuz chokepoint holding at 26–32 vessels across every frame, with full day-over-day name turnover (ships entering AND leaving, not a frozen or emptying frame). Named commercial tonnage transiting through the audit window includes BW LOYALTY (BW Group, Singapore), KUWAIT PROSPERITY, CAMEROON PROSPERITY, TOGO PROSPERITY, ROTTERDAM ENERGY, NORD VICTOR, BITUMEN STAR, IMPERIOUS, NEW STAR, and notably SHEN ZHOU (Chinese-flag) on the Monday morning frame — meaningful given the Day 114 caveat that major buyer-state operators were waiting for “proven safe in practice” conditions. The Monday morning underway-vessel ratio (~11 of 30) ticked up versus the weekend baseline (~7–9), consistent with a normal Monday business-day rhythm rather than emergency posture. The kinetic exchange did not produce a flow break, did not produce a queue, and did not deter Chinese tonnage. Board: ELEVATED, recovery-fragile. Do NOT flip to closed on the strikes — CENTCOM + the AIS record + continued named-operator transits override the headlines.
The diplomatic landscape now has two competing route claims on the strait. The Joint Maritime Information Center (US Navy, JMIC) on June 27 announced a widened route near Oman, allowing increased naval traffic in both directions — a direct challenge to Iran’s claim to control. Iran’s IRGC Navy responded that “the only authorized route for passing through the Strait of Hormuz is the one declared by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Vessel traffic outside these routes is extremely dangerous and prohibited. Violators will be dealt with.” Three foreign oil tankers attempted to pass without Iranian authorization Friday and were rerouted toward the Persian Gulf. The UN’s International Maritime Organization had been evacuating stranded ships via the Omani coastal route — 115 vessels and 2,500 sailors moved out since Tuesday — before suspending the operation after the Ever Lovely strike. Approximately 600 ships and 11,000 sailors remain stranded. The Doha session Tuesday will need to produce something workable on routing and on the “hotline” de-confliction channel agreed at Bürgenstock if those vessels are to move; otherwise the operator-confidence track that named-commercial transits have begun rebuilding will stall.
Crude has fully unwound the war premium on the supply-recovery read that dominated the week before Sunday’s strikes. Brent settled $73.52 Friday June 26 (Investing.com CFD; intraday low $71.94 — the lowest since February 27, the war’s start date), for a 10%+ weekly drop — the largest in a month. WTI closed $70.24 (Investing.com; intraday low $68.86, lowest since February 2026). Saudi Arabia began loading tankers at Ras Tanura, signaling a major regional output ramp-up; Persian Gulf exports are now restored to roughly 75% of pre-war volume. UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar are all boosting supply (with tanker availability the binding constraint), and Iraq is seeking a higher OPEC quota to recoup wartime losses. Goldman cut Brent Q4 to $80 (from $90); Citi sees $60–65 over 6–12 months and recommends fading any summer rally. Monday’s open recovered modestly on the strikes-halted news — WTI back to ~$70, Brent ~$73 — not a panic, not a continuation. The market’s read of the four-day tit-for-tat: noise within a still-functioning MoU, not the prelude to a collapse. The domestic counterpoint remains striking: US commercial crude inventories sit at the lowest since January 2025; Cushing at ~19 Mbbl is the lowest since October 2014; SPR at 331 Mbbl is the lowest since August 1983; total US crude including SPR is the lowest since October 1984. Prices crash while buffers sit at multi-decade lows.
The week’s independent crisis — Russia’s domestic fuel shortage — widened materially. Moscow Times put the regional rationing tally at 56 regions as of Thursday June 25 (up from 53 at the June 22 audit; up from 25 on June 16); RFE/RL counted 55 of 83 federal entities as of June 24. Putin acknowledged the fuel supply problem Sunday June 28 and set up a new task force. Russian gasoline production fell approximately 25% in the week of June 15–21 versus the June 2025 average (Reuters via Meduza). The Kapotnya refinery — the largest fuel supplier to the Moscow region — was struck twice this month and is offline until at least the end of 2026. Approximately 7,000 of Russia’s 29,000 gas stations (roughly one in four) are capping sales. Rationing has reached Khanty-Mansi (which produces ~40% of Russia’s oil output), Tatarstan (post the June 12 Taneco refinery strike), Omsk, Irkutsk, Novosibirsk, the Tyva republic, and the northern Kuril Islands. The Vedomosti June 23 report indicates the government is weighing a full diesel export ban (alongside the existing gasoline and jet-fuel export bans) and subsidies for gasoline imports. This pin is on an independent deterioration trajectory and will not ease with any Hormuz resolution — the cause is Ukrainian long-range refinery strikes, not the Persian Gulf shock. The IATA Jet Fuel Monitor (week ending June 20) printed $119.17/bbl, −14.2% w/w — down from approximately $181/bbl at the late-April crisis peak; the aviation-fuel war premium is essentially gone. The new Monday June 29 IATA print (week ending June 27) releases at 12:00 UTC today; we will refresh on receipt.
Forward calendar: the immediate hinge is Tuesday June 30 Doha — if the session produces an operational de-confliction mechanism plus a workable routing agreement, the IMO can resume evacuation of the remaining ~600 stranded vessels and the operator-confidence rebuild that the Day 121 AIS audit shows beginning can accelerate. If Doha fails or produces only language, the four-day kinetic cycle just witnessed is the template for what the strait looks like through July. Jun 30: Cathay/HK Express cuts expire (re-verify extension status); Australia fuel-excise cut expires (the partial 16c/L extension through August 2 is in effect per the June 23 announcement). Jul 19: US Hormuz blockade-lift deadline per MoU Article 5. For the current matrix and outlook, see the Risk Analysis page; for the live chokepoint picture, see Marine Traffic.