ESCALATION (Day 132, July 10). What began Tuesday as vessel strikes near Oman escalated over the following three days into the most severe deterioration since the war's initial phase. Three vessels were struck near the Omani coast July 7: the Qatari state-owned LNG carrier Al Rekayyat (Nakilat, fully laden, having loaded at Ras Laffan) was hit near its engine room roughly 8 nautical miles east of Limah, Oman — a fire broke out and the crew evacuated; the vessel is now confirmed stationary near the strait, awaiting salvage. The Saudi-owned crude tanker Wedyan (319,990 dwt) was struck while outbound, and a third vessel (believed the LPG tanker Al Maryah) was diverted by Iranian forces. The US revoked its license permitting Iranian oil sales, and CENTCOM launched the first of three consecutive nights of strikes: July 7 hit 80+ targets including 60+ IRGC boats (Bandar Abbas, Kharg Island, Qeshm, Sirik) — Iran shot down a US MQ-9 drone in response.
Speaking from the NATO summit in Ankara on July 8, Trump declared "the ceasefire is over," threatening a renewed naval blockade, strikes on Iran's electricity and water infrastructure, and potentially seizing Kharg Island itself — roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports move through that single terminal. That night's strikes hit Iranshahr (a firefighter killed), Bandar Abbas, Konarak, Chabahar, Bushehr, and Aq Qala. July 9 brought a third round of US strikes and real Iranian retaliation: IRGC hit a US-linked base in Jordan (Al-Azraq) with 10 ballistic missiles after Jordan intercepted 8 incoming Iranian missiles, and separately struck US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. Iran's parliamentary speaker Qalibaf: "if you strike, you'll get hit" — asserting the strait "would only remain open under Iranian arrangements."
On the water, the evidence is unambiguous: Kpler data shows strait crossings collapsed to just 7 ships early Tuesday, down from 25 Monday, with the broader recent-week pace running 25–40 ships/day — at or below GEF's own published critical threshold for Hormuz transits (thresholds.js: under 40 vessels/day = "effective closure, supply chain breaks"). Weighed against the concrete-consequence test — a real fatality, real strikes on three countries' territory, reinstated sanctions, a ceasefire explicitly declared dead by the US President — this crosses into CRITICAL by the site's own framework, not merely a repeat of the June 25-28 exchange, which never produced a transit reading this low. Notably, crude price has not caught up: Brent/WTI remain in thresholds.js's "low" band (critical is $120+ Brent) despite a volatile week — Wednesday surged 4.4-5.2% to a high near $77-78 on the "ceasefire over" news, but Thursday's action is disputed across sources (some show a slip to ~$72-73, others show it holding $76-79). The physical data moved into crisis territory faster than the price has.
GEF's own operator AIS audit now spans 14 frames (July 1 22:51 – July 10, ~8.5 days). Only COBA has been present in literally every frame; BARIN 313 had a ~17-hour gap July 7-8 before returning; MARIVAN has now been absent two consecutive frames and has likely genuinely departed — correcting the "3-vessel persistent core" framing used earlier this week, which was accurate at the time but doesn't hold across the full window. Diplomatically, a US official told Fox News technical talks continue despite the MoU violations; Trump said Iran reached out seeking a new deal but was noncommittal ("I don't know if the country is worthy of making a deal"). Khamenei was finally laid to rest at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad in the early hours of July 10, concluding the funeral period — removing one procedural obstacle to resumed talks, though the military escalation is now the dominant one. An unconfirmed WSJ report (via Fox, citing Israeli intelligence) alleges Iran may be considering an assassination plot against Trump — flagged as unconfirmed, not treated as fact.
For the current risk matrix and outlook, see the Risk Analysis page; for the live chokepoint picture, see Marine Traffic.