The most consequential fact about the Hormuz closure is not diplomatic — it is physical. On April 11, the New York Times reported, citing US officials, that Iran planted mines in the Strait of Hormuz in a scattered, haphazard manner and lacks a complete record of their locations. Some devices may have drifted from their original positions. The Pentagon assessment, confirmed publicly on April 23, concluded that mine clearance would take up to six months even under optimal conditions. Iran lacks the technical capability to remove them unilaterally.
This creates a structural disconnect between the diplomatic timeline and the physical reopening timeline that markets have not yet fully priced. Even if Trump and Pezeshkian reach a political agreement tomorrow — lifting the US naval blockade, deferring nuclear talks, restoring the pre-war status quo — commercial tankers cannot safely transit the strait until the mines are located and cleared. A six-month clearance operation from any hypothetical agreement date would mean Hormuz does not reopen to normal commercial traffic until at least October–November 2026 at the earliest.
The implications are significant. EU gas storage must reach 80% by November 1 — precisely the window when Hormuz might physically reopen. Jet fuel reserves in Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia are measured in weeks to months. The aviation crisis, the LNG supply gap, and the crude oil backwardation that is driving Brent to $111 are not solved by a ceasefire announcement. They require a physical clearance operation, international mine-sweeping coordination, and a verified safe transit corridor — all of which take time that the market has not yet accounted for.