IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol issued the most consequential public statement on European aviation fuel security since the crisis began, telling the Associated Press on April 16 from Paris that several European countries had fallen below 23 days of jet fuel coverage and that Europe had 'maybe six weeks' of supply remaining if Hormuz stays closed.
The 23-day threshold is the IEA's published standard for the point at which physical airport shortages begin to emerge — the level at which fuel availability, not price, becomes the operational constraint. Prior to the war, several EU countries held months of coverage.
The airline response was immediate and concrete. SAS confirmed cancellation of approximately 1,000 April flights. Lufthansa announced the accelerated shutdown of feeder airline CityLine — 27 older aircraft grounded. KLM cut 160 May routes from Schiphol. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary specifically identified the UK as the most vulnerable European country, citing Kuwaiti suppliers' dominant share of British aviation fuel.
The US has dramatically increased jet fuel exports to Europe: approximately 150,000 barrels per day in April, six times normal levels per IEA data. This partially fills the gap but falls well short of replacing the 75% of EU net jet fuel imports that previously came from the Persian Gulf. ACI Europe wrote to the EU Commissioner on April 9 warning that a systemic shortage was 'set to become a reality' within three weeks if Hormuz did not resume meaningful throughput.