Day 240 — Brent at its highest since April as the war reaches Yanbu and Riyadh

Executive summary

The strait stayed closed and the queue outside it grew: about 492 vessels were waiting on 25 October, PortWatch recorded four transits on 18 October against about 85 a day before the war, and UKMTO confirmed a second tanker strike in two days, an LPG tanker off Limah, Oman, on 22 October. GEF counts at least fifteen vessels struck since 1 October, a floor rather than a total; Iranian claims that no maritime authority has confirmed are not counted.

The war reached further into Saudi Arabia. Aramco pulled essential staff from Dhahran, the US ordered embassy staff out, and on 24 October the coalition intercepted Houthi missiles aimed at Riyadh, Taif and Yanbu. Houthi claims of hits on Saudi airports and oil facilities are unconfirmed. Qatari mediators reached Tehran while Trump spoke of both a possible strike and a deal.

Brent settled $116.72 on Friday, the highest settle since 29 April and about 6% up on the week. EU gas storage reached 74.62% on gas day 24 October, with +0.67 points a day now needed for 80% by 1 November. GEF’s shortage map did not change this week.

On the water: a second confirmed strike and a 492-ship queue

A tanker at anchor was hit off Bukha, Oman, on 21 October. On 22 October UKMTO reported that a tanker leaving the strait was hit by an unknown projectile about seven nautical miles north-east of Limah, Oman; Gulf News identified it as an LPG tanker, with no casualties or pollution reported and the voyage continuing. GEF missed this report in its Friday update, corrected it on Monday, and now counts at least fifteen vessels struck since 1 October, a floor rather than a total. UKMTO counts 23 attacks on ships since 1 October and warns that the true number is higher because most attacked ships no longer report.

On 23 October the IRGC Navy said two supertankers carrying more than 4.5 million barrels hit mines on an unauthorised route south of the strait, caught fire and were abandoned (Sepah News via Africanews). No vessel was named and nothing was independently confirmed, so GEF does not count it, as with earlier IRGC claims, including the claim of a record single-day toll on 22 October that CENTCOM called false. Weekend reports of an IRGC cruise-missile launch from Sirik Island, an unidentified strike on the launcher and an Iranian army claim that a US drone was shot down over Bandar Abbas rest on single sources and are not counted.

The Joint Maritime Information Center put about 492 vessels waiting outside the strait on 25 October: 194 off Fujairah and Khor Fakkan, 178 off Dubai, 55 near Musandam and Sohar and 32 off Bandar Abbas and Qeshm. IMF PortWatch recorded four transits on 18 October against about 85 a day before the war. Kpler data cited by the Wall Street Journal put flows near 14 million b/d, about 82% of pre-war, a preliminary estimate. The UAE confirmed oil pollution on the Umm Al Quwain coast linked to an earlier tanker attack. GEF’s own AIS frames on 26 October show the Iranian coastal cluster at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm and vessels off Khasab with no satellite-only contact and no named tanker in the strait itself; Bab el-Mandeb shows about 6 satellite-only contacts, down from about 12 on 23 October, and Suez, Malacca and Panama show normal patterns.

Saudi Arabia and Yemen: Dhahran, Yanbu, Riyadh and Taif

On 22 October Aramco told essential staff at its Dhahran headquarters to evacuate after Houthi strikes on the site the previous week, and the US ordered embassy staff and families out of Saudi Arabia and families out of the UAE, Jordan, Qatar and Bahrain (AFP, Gulf News). These are security events, not evidence of a physical fuel shortage, and GEF has added no Saudi shortage pin.

On 24 October the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at Riyadh and then at Taif and Yanbu, the Red Sea terminal of the East–West pipeline; Civil Defence reported debris in Mecca, which the Houthis denied targeting. More drones and missiles were intercepted on Sunday, and Air India suspended Riyadh and Dammam flights to 7 November and Jeddah to 31 October (Gulf News, FinanceFeeds). The Houthis said they hit three Saudi airports, two oil facilities including Yanbu and the Rabigh refinery, a pipeline and an air base. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed any hit, and GEF does not publish the claims as fact; nor does it publish a claim that Yanbu loadings had risen.

This matters because Saudi crude reaches the market through the East–West pipeline and Yanbu while Hormuz is closed, and because the Houthis control the approach to Bab el-Mandeb. Interceptions mean the bypass is still working, but the pipeline and its terminal now sit inside the missile range, which is why price reacted to Saudi-front headlines last week as much as to anything on the water.

Diplomacy and force: Qatari mediators, a strike threat and a deal

Qatari mediators were reported in Tehran on Sunday in a US-coordinated effort to ease tensions (Al Arabiya, Iran International). Trump said on Friday the US ‘may do another little Epic Fury’ and on Saturday that a strike could come ‘tomorrow’, while raising a ‘big, beautiful’ deal; envoy Tom Barrack said a strike could ‘absolutely’ come over the weekend, and the Wall Street Journal reported the USS George Washington was being rearmed with standoff missiles and bunker-busters. No US strike was reported. GEF treats these as statements, not decisions. Earlier in the week Araghchi said Iran is ‘truly in a wartime situation’ and the New York Times reported a short US-Israeli campaign drawn up for after the 3 November midterms and not approved by Trump.

The US is sending the Theodore Roosevelt carrier group, about 10,000 troops and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit by the end of November, and Reuters reported Iran has plans to target Gulf undersea cables if war resumes. Iran says it would reopen the strait if Washington lifts its naval blockade, a position the Mehr agency qualified by denying Tehran had conveyed such a proposal. Pezeshkian is due to meet Putin on 27 October, Israel votes the same day and the US midterms are on 3 November.

Prices: crude, the pump and the reserves

Brent (Dec) settled $109.55 on Monday 19 October, $108.79 on Tuesday, $108.82 on Wednesday, $113.17 on Thursday (+4.0%) and $116.72 on Friday 23 October (+$3.55, +3.1%), the highest settle since 29 April and about 6% up on the week from $109.86. WTI (Dec) settled $99.47 on Thursday and $103.27 on Friday (+3.8%), a spread of about $13.45. On Monday morning Brent was near $114.6 and WTI near $101.1 (indicative). The settles are triangulated across Rio Times, Straits brief and FinanceFeeds.

The EIA’s report for the week to 16 October showed US commercial crude down 3.1 million barrels to 412.5 million (about 3% below the five-year average), distillate up 1.7 million to 104.3 million (about 9% below, narrowed from about 12%), gasoline down 3.0 million to 205.3 million and the SPR down 0.3 million to 282.7 million barrels, the lowest since 1982. The next EIA report is due Wednesday 28 October. On 21 October the US Energy Department offered to lend up to 315,000 barrels of ultra-low-sulphur distillate from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, with bids due 27 October and delivery by 13 November. AAA put US regular at $4.2892 a gallon on 25 October, up from $4.2701 on 22 October; GEF carries diesel at $6.31 from 22 October.

Gas: the refill is borderline

GEF’s direct GIE AGSI+ read puts EU storage at 74.62% (846.386 TWh) on gas day 24 October (status 25 October, 06:00 CEST). Injection recovered to 1,797 GWh/d and withdrawal fell to 624, a net injection of about 1,173 GWh/d. The 42-day pace since 12 September is +0.16 points a day, and reaching the relaxed 80% target by 1 November needs about +0.67 a day for the remaining days: the 42-day pace reaches about 75.9%, the lower edge of the regulation’s flexibility band of about 76%, and the latest day’s pace about 75.3%, below the band. The original 90% target would need about +1.92 a day and is out of reach. The percentage is unchanged from the previous read although the TWh figure rose, which reflects GIE’s revisions to estimated national data; GEF reports GIE’s displayed figures.

The aggregate hides a north–south split. Germany is at 61.48% (estimated), the Netherlands 65.24% (estimated), Belgium 66.09%, Slovakia 54.65% (falling) and Latvia 49.33%; France is at 87.18%. TTF reached about €92–93 on Friday, its highest since December 2022 (indicative). Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG remains offline after the 18 March strike and undamaged trains are gated on a safe Hormuz transit, so Europe competes with Asia for Atlantic cargoes.

Interconnections

Three links matter this week. First, Gulf to Red Sea to price: with Hormuz closed, Saudi crude reaches the market through Yanbu and the East–West line, so missiles aimed at Yanbu reach the oil price through the pipeline as well as through the strait, and Brent’s highest settle since April came on Saudi-front and strike-plan headlines. Second, shipping to the queue: a 492-ship queue and four transits a day mean cargoes, crews and insurance are all backing up outside the strait, so a reopening would release a backlog rather than restore the old flow at once. Third, shipping to gas: the same attacks that hold Qatari LNG in the Gulf keep Europe short of cargoes, TTF is at its highest since December 2022, and a storage pace of +0.16 a day against +0.67 needed leaves 1 November out of reach.

Risk assessment

Strait of Hormuz: CRITICAL (worsening). UKMTO counts 23 attacks on ships since 1 October, a second confirmed strike in two days off Limah, about 492 vessels waiting; at least fifteen vessels struck by GEF’s count.

Bab el-Mandeb / Red Sea: CRITICAL (stable). Houthi missiles aimed at Yanbu, Taif and Riyadh; moving traffic on GEF’s 26 October AIS frame with about 6 satellite-only contacts, down from about 12.

Saudi East–West bypass / Yanbu: ELEVATED (worsening). Missiles aimed at Yanbu intercepted on 24 October; Houthi claims of hits on Yanbu and Rabigh unconfirmed; Aramco and US staff evacuations are security events.

Global diesel and distillate: CRITICAL (stable). US distillate about 9% below its five-year average; DOE heating-oil loan offer, bids due 27 October; US regular $4.2892, diesel $6.31 carried from 22 October.

EU gas storage: ELEVATED (stable). 74.62% on gas day 24 October; +0.67 a day needed for 80%, 42-day pace +0.16; paths end near 75.9% and 75.3%.

UK road fuel: CRITICAL (stable). No newer RAC read than 9 October.

US SPR: ELEVATED (stable). 282.7 million barrels, the lowest since 1982.

Crude price: ELEVATED (worsening). Brent $116.72, highest settle since 29 April, about 6% up on the week.

Outlook

Base case (50%): no US strike before the 3 November midterms but the war keeps widening on the Saudi and shipping fronts, with Qatari mediation producing talk rather than a reopening; Brent $108–122; US regular $4.25–4.45; EU gas finishes near 75–77%, short of 80% and at or below the lower edge of the regulation’s flexibility band.

Upside risk to prices (30%): US or Israeli strikes on Iran resume, or damage to Yanbu, the East–West pipeline or Saudi export infrastructure is confirmed; Brent above $125 and TTF above €100.

Downside (20%): the Qatari channel produces a framework on the blockade and the strait; Brent back toward $100. Any of these can switch on a single incident; GEF treats the paths as scenarios, not forecasts.

What to watch this week. Whether the Qatari channel produces anything beyond talk, and whether Trump’s strike threats are acted on; any confirmation of the Houthi claims on Yanbu and Rabigh; Pezeshkian–Putin on 27 October, Israel’s election on 27 October and DOE heating-oil bids due 27 October; EIA inventories and the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday 28 October; the daily GIE trend against the +0.67 needed; the ACCC weekly report, which GEF could not retrieve for 23 October; the US midterms on 3 November.

Sources: UKMTO via Gulf News and Africanews (Bukha, Limah, IRGC claims) · Seatrade Maritime · Joint Maritime Information Center and IMF PortWatch via trade press · Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya and Iran International (mediation, Trump and Barrack statements, midterms) · Gulf News and FinanceFeeds (Houthi attacks, flight suspensions) · Rio Times, Straits brief, FinanceFeeds and cappnotes (Brent and WTI settles) · Investing.com and TokenPost (TTF, market reports) · Wall Street Journal and Reuters via secondary reports (Kpler flows, deployments, cables) · EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report · US Department of Energy via BigGo Finance (Heating Oil Reserve) · AAA (25 October regular, 22 October diesel) · GIE AGSI+ direct read (status 25 October, gas day 24 October) · UrduPoint · GEF AIS audit (26 October).