Day 233 — the busiest month for ship attacks since March

Executive summary

The strait stayed closed and October became the busiest month for attacks on shipping since March: UKMTO counts 23 attacks on ships since 1 October, a container ship sank on 13 October, and transits are running about 70% below pre-war. GEF counts at least thirteen vessels struck since 1 October, a floor rather than a total; Iranian claims that no maritime authority has confirmed are not counted.

The war also moved onto Saudi territory. Houthi missiles hit Aramco’s Dhahran complex, a missile aimed at Yanbu was intercepted, Najran was hit, and on Monday the Houthis claimed strikes on Aramco sites at Yanbu and Shaybah that Saudi authorities did not confirm. Diplomacy is deadlocked while the US–Israeli military track hardens, and Washington has waived new Russia sanctions to ease the price.

Brent settled $109.86 on Friday, the highest settle since 19 May, and $109.55 on Monday. EU gas storage reached 74.58% on gas day 18 October, still short of the pace needed for 80% by 1 November. GEF’s shortage map did not change this week.

On the water: the busiest month since March

The week began with the aftermath of 11 October, when UKMTO logged six ships struck: four outbound tankers and an inbound container ship hit by unidentified projectiles in the strait, and a tanker hit by a drone at Sohar anchorage, Oman, where two Indian seafarers were reported missing. Named so far are the Suezmax Valthera (10 October) and the Sinokor VLCC Angola Prosperity (11 October). On 13 October the Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride was hit by a projectile, caught fire and sank, all 21 crew evacuated; GFS Giselle took hull damage, Al Saadiyat was attacked outbound and the tanker Alfonso was hit. AFP, citing Vanguard, the IMO and UKMTO, counted at least 10 vessels attacked since Sunday 11 October. The bulk carrier Cape Dao, struck on 23 September, was reported sinking after a failed salvage (Vanguard).

On 16 October a tanker was struck about 68 nautical miles north-east of Al Jubail, Saudi Arabia: the VLCC ST3 lost power after an engine-room fire and all 15 Indian seafarers were evacuated to a UAE-flagged containership (Splash247). Another tanker about 78 nautical miles north-east of Jubail was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade fired from a small boat, with all crew safe. On Sunday a tug about 20 nautical miles north-east of Khor Fakkan was struck by two unidentified projectiles, with one minor injury, and continued its voyage (UKMTO).

UKMTO’s latest weekly assessment counts 12 attacks (ten in the Hormuz area, one in the Arabian Gulf and one in the Gulf of Oman): of the vessels involved one was lost, two were disabled and three had unconfirmed outcomes. It counts 254 vessel transits in the week, about 70% below pre-war, and has recorded 135 conflict-related incidents since 28 February, including 114 reports of vessel damage and 76 people killed or injured. UKMTO says it is struggling to report the true number of attacks because most attacked vessels refuse to report. The Joint Maritime Information Center counts about 217 vessels waiting at anchor off Fujairah and Khor Fakkan, with congestion building (Splash247).

GEF does not publish the IRGC’s statement that two laden supertankers, each carrying about two million barrels, hit naval mines on unauthorised routes: no ship has been named, the JMIC says there is no substantiation, and the claim joins earlier IRGC and Supreme National Security Council statements about striking “five or six vessels each night” on GEF’s unverified list. CENTCOM says it has cleared the strait of mines and that ships are being hit by projectiles, and claims that about 400 commercial vessels and 100 million barrels moved through in a week; GEF cannot verify the figure. Independent volume estimates disagree: Kpler had 11.6 mb/d in the seven days to 13 October (about 68% of pre-war), Signal Ocean about 13.9 mb/d of crude plus 2.3 mb/d of products, and UKMTO’s transit count is 70% down. GEF’s own AIS frames on 19 October show the Iranian coastal cluster at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm with no satellite-only contact, and treat every count as a floor.

Saudi Arabia and Yemen: the bypass under fire

On the night of 13 October a Houthi ballistic missile hit the Aramco complex in Dhahran: the energy ministry said a limited fire in an administrative building with no injuries, while a company source said the top three floors of an office tower were damaged. The Saudi-led coalition struck Sanaa and oil sites in western Yemen, and a missile aimed at Riyadh was intercepted on 14 October. On 16 October the coalition destroyed a ballistic missile fired toward Yanbu (initial reports: no damage at the port), two cruise missiles over the Red Sea and three drones. AP counted at least 19 killed, including foreigners, in more than a week of Houthi attacks on Riyadh’s airport, Aramco headquarters and other facilities to 16 October; the Riyadh airport toll from 10 October stands at 13 dead and about 300 injured.

On 17 October the coalition said it intercepted four drones over Riyadh and other regions. On 18 October a Houthi projectile hit a residential area of Najran, injuring six, a Saudi helicopter crashed in the same area killing two pilots (the coalition says a technical malfunction, the Houthis claim they shot it down), and Riyadh’s Kingdom Centre told tenants to work remotely. On Monday Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claimed six operations against Saudi Arabia in 48 hours, including Riyadh’s King Khalid airport and Aramco facilities at Yanbu and the Shaybah oilfield. Saudi authorities did not confirm the claims and Reuters could not verify them, so GEF does not publish them as fact, as with earlier Houthi claims on Aramco and Rabigh. A Houthi missile strike on a military camp in Shabwa province, Yemen, killed at least 53 soldiers and injured about 200 recruits (CBS/AFP; Reuters puts the toll at 58). The Saudi Future Investment Initiative (26–29 October) was postponed to 2027, and Egypt’s parliament deferred its debate on military support for Saudi Arabia to 26 October.

This matters for oil because Saudi crude reaches the market through the East–West pipeline and Yanbu while Hormuz is closed, and because the Houthis control the approach to Bab el-Mandeb. The Saudi energy minister says the kingdom is developing additional pipelines, and the ministry says expanding capacity to 10 million b/d would take two to three years; Aramco’s chief executive says global crude supply remains “severely tight”. Saudi output was 8.37 million b/d in September, up more than 2 million b/d on August (OPEC+). GEF’s last confirmed East–West throughput reading is about 3.5 million b/d on 28 September.

Diplomacy and policy: a military track that hardens, and a Russia waiver

Iran called the US reply to its seven conditions insufficient on 11 October. On 18 October Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran is still reviewing US comments on its seven-day plan and that the strait would reopen on day six if the US lifts its naval blockade and oil sanctions and agrees a ceasefire on all fronts, with negotiations starting on day seven; the Iranian army said on 16 October that the strait would reopen if the US leaves the region. On Monday Axios and CBS reported that Defense Secretary Hegseth quietly visited Israel and met Netanyahu, who posted a video of a call with Trump about possibly attacking Iran again; the Pentagon declined to comment. Trump told a Kansas rally the US “could leave right now” and that Iran will not get a nuclear weapon. Lavrov’s first Tehran visit since the war began, with Araghchi blaming the US and Israel for insecurity in the strait, adds a Russian dimension. Trump has said the US will not attack before the 3 November midterms.

On Friday 16 October Trump signed an executive order waiving new sanctions and tariffs on Russia that were due under legislation he signed last month, including tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian oil and gas; existing US sanctions remain in place. On Saturday he said he had not made a final decision and Rubio said officials need more time to assess the impact. The waiver follows his 9 October announcement that Russia would supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel to global markets, with 500,000 tonnes more in November, under a temporary OFAC licence; analysts say the volumes barely move the price, and Russia’s own diesel export ban runs to the end of October. EnergyNow reported that a Ukrainian strike took a crude unit at the Ryazan refinery offline; GEF has not confirmed it from a second source. Trump’s 11 October Russia–Ukraine “energy ceasefire” remains unconfirmed.

Prices: crude, the pump and the barrel in storage

Brent settled $106.65 on Monday 12 October (the highest since 15 September), $105.69 on Tuesday, $106.06 on Wednesday and $105.92 on Thursday, then $109.86 on Friday 16 October (+$3.94, +3.7%, the highest settle since 19 May) after a coalition interception of a missile aimed at Yanbu, a tanker strike off Al Jubail and UKMTO’s warning about October; that is +4.9% on the week from $104.72. WTI settled $101.41 on Friday, up 10.4% on the week from $91.85 and its highest settle since 17 September, helped by an 8.6 million barrel US crude draw. On Monday 19 October Brent settled $109.55 (−$0.31, −0.3%) after falling more than $3 intraday on profit-taking and the prospect of more Russian fuel, and after touching $110.70; WTI settled $103.66 (+2.2%), its highest since 15 September, in thin trade before the November contract expired, with the more active December contract near $98–99. Goldman raised its December Brent forecast to $90 from $85, citing a risk premium of just over $20.

The EIA’s report for the week to 9 October showed US commercial crude down 8.6 million barrels to 415.6 million, far more than expected and partly attributed to hurricane-related disruption, distillate down 2.5 million barrels to 102.6 million (about 12% below its five-year average), gasoline up 3.5 million to 208.3 million and the SPR unchanged at 283.0 million barrels, the lowest since 1982. US natural gas storage was 3,567 Bcf, 45 Bcf (1.3%) above the five-year average. AAA put US regular at $4.33 and diesel at $6.33 a gallon on 16 October, 20 cents below the record diesel price of $6.53 on 22 September. UK diesel was 199.9p a litre on 9 October (RAC), just under the 200.01p record; France’s government count of stations short of a fuel was 10% on 11 October, down from about 15% on 5 October. GEF has no newer government or RAC read for the UK or France. The next EIA report is due Wednesday 21 October and EIA natural gas storage on Thursday 22 October.

Gas: the refill is borderline and slowing

GEF’s direct GIE AGSI+ read puts EU storage at 74.58% (844.87 TWh) on gas day 18 October (status 19 October, 06:00 CEST), up from 73.61% on gas day 10 October, 70.87% on 26 September and 68.04% on 12 September. That is +0.18 points a day over the 36 days since 12 September, but the latest gas day added only +0.11, with injection at 1,760 GWh/d against 2,265 the day before and withdrawal at 612 against 460. Reaching 80% by 1 November needs about +0.39 points a day for the remaining 14 days: the 36-day pace reaches about 77.1% and the latest day’s pace about 76.1%, both short of 80% and the second at the lower edge of the regulation’s flexibility band of about 76%. The original 90% target would need about +1.10 a day and is out of reach.

The aggregate hides a north–south split. Germany is at 61.15% (estimated), Belgium 61.84%, the Netherlands 64.56% (estimated), Slovakia 55.09% (falling) and Latvia 49.96% (estimated); France is at 87.71%, Italy 89.86%, Portugal 95.51% (estimated) and Poland 98.81%, slipping slightly. TTF was near €89/MWh on 16 October (an indicative live quote). Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG remains offline after the 18 March strike and undamaged trains are gated on a safe Hormuz transit, so Europe competes with Asia for Atlantic cargoes to fill its stores.

Interconnections

Three links matter this week. First, Gulf to Red Sea to price: with Hormuz closed, Saudi crude reaches the market through Yanbu and the East–West line, so Houthi pressure on Saudi territory reaches the oil price through the pipeline and Bab el-Mandeb as well as through the strait, and Brent’s five-month high came on Saudi-front headlines as much as on the water. Second, policy to the pump: the Russia waiver and the IEA diesel release are a response to US diesel at $6.33 and distillate stocks 12% below normal, but the volumes are small against a closed strait and Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries cut the other way. Third, shipping to gas: the same attacks that hold Qatari LNG in the Gulf keep Europe short of cargoes, and a refill pace that slowed to +0.11 a day leaves the 1 November target at the edge of its band while Germany sits near 61%.

Risk assessment

Strait of Hormuz: CRITICAL (worsening). UKMTO counts 23 attacks on ships since 1 October, a container ship sank, transits about 70% below pre-war; at least thirteen vessels struck by GEF’s count.

Bab el-Mandeb / Red Sea: CRITICAL (worsening). Houthi strikes on Saudi territory continue; named moving traffic in both lanes on GEF’s 19 October AIS frame, with no satellite-only label (about 4 on 17 October).

Saudi East–West bypass / Yanbu: ELEVATED (worsening). A missile aimed at Yanbu was intercepted on 16 October; Houthi claims on Yanbu and Shaybah on 19 October are unconfirmed; no confirmed damage to oil facilities beyond the Dhahran office fire.

Global diesel and distillate: CRITICAL (improving on policy). G7 and IEA releases and the Russia waiver; US diesel $6.33 from a $6.53 record; US distillate about 12% below its five-year average.

EU gas storage: ELEVATED (stable). 74.58% on gas day 18 October; +0.39 a day needed for 80%, latest day +0.11; paths end at about 77.1% and 76.1%.

UK road fuel: CRITICAL (stable). Diesel 199.9p on 9 October, 0.1p under the record; no newer RAC read.

US SPR: ELEVATED (stable). 283.0 million barrels, the lowest since 1982; unchanged on the week.

Russian refining capacity: CRITICAL (worsening). The Ryazan crude-unit report is single-source; the energy ceasefire is unconfirmed; the US waiver of new sanctions is under review.

Outlook

Base case (50%): no US strike before the 3 November midterms but the war keeps widening on the Saudi and shipping fronts, with attacks on ships continuing at the October rate; Brent $102–114; US diesel $6.10–6.50; UK diesel near £2; EU gas finishes near 76–77.5%, short of 80% and at the lower edge of the regulation’s flexibility band.

Upside risk to prices (30%): US or Israeli strikes on Iran resume before the midterms, or damage to Saudi export infrastructure is confirmed; Brent above $120 and US diesel back to a record.

Downside (20%): the Russia waiver is finalised and Russian volumes reach the market while an Iran–US arrangement on the strait gains traction after the midterms; Brent back toward $95. Any of these can switch on a single incident; GEF treats the paths as scenarios, not forecasts.

What to watch this week. The Saudi response and any confirmation of the Houthi claims on Yanbu and Shaybah; the outcome of the Hegseth–Netanyahu talks and whether Trump’s pledge of no attack before 3 November holds; Trump’s decision on the Russia waiver; EIA inventories on Wednesday 21 October and EIA natural gas storage on Thursday 22 October; the daily GIE trend against the +0.39 needed; Israel’s election on 27 October and the US midterms on 3 November.

Sources: Splash247 (UKMTO weekly assessment, JMIC, Gulf of Aden, ST3, Khor Fakkan tug) · UKMTO via Al Jazeera and CBS News (attack counts, 16–18 October strikes) · Seatrade Maritime, gCaptain and AFP/Vanguard (11–13 October strikes, GFS Pride) · CBS News live updates and AP (Dhahran, Yanbu, Najran, Shabwa, Hegseth, Netanyahu, Lavrov) · Reuters via Nation Thailand, Business Standard and Yahoo Finance (Brent and WTI settles, Houthi claims, Kpler) · EnergyNow and TokenPost (Friday settles, Ryazan) · Gulf News (Russia waiver) · Iran International (Trump Kansas rally) · EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report and Natural Gas Storage Report · AAA (16 October) · RAC Fuel Watch (9 October) · Signal Ocean and SEB via Splash247 · GIE AGSI+ direct read (status 19 October, gas day 18 October) · GEF AIS audit (19 October).