Day 226 — the war reaches Riyadh
Executive summary
The week to 12 October moved from the water to the shore. Tanker strikes in the Gulf continued — the Panama-flagged On Peace on 6 October (12 crew injured, 11 of them Indian), Acers off Qatar on 7 October (casualties reported) and the laden VLCC GEM NO.2 off the UAE on 9 October — taking GEF’s count to at least seven named vessels struck since 1 October, against nine ships counted by the IMO for 1–6 October alone. At the weekend an unnamed outbound tanker was hit by a projectile in the strait on the night of 10 October (UKMTO; fire, crew safe), the UAE National Guard rescued 22 crew from a burning tanker in Gulf waters, and a US fighter jet disabled the cargo ship Ocean Molica in the Gulf of Oman as it tried to run the blockade. CENTCOM counts four commercial vessels disabled and 135 turned back since the blockade resumed on 14 July.
The larger change came on land. On Saturday 10 October a missile hit terminals 3 and 4 of Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport: Saudi civil aviation put the toll at at least 12 killed, including one American, and 309 injured, which Al Jazeera calls the deadliest attack on the kingdom in more than a decade. A projectile hit the terminal again on Sunday. The Saudi-led coalition blames the Houthis; Riyadh operations were suspended, at least 291 flights were cancelled in 24 hours and several airlines suspended Saudi service. Saudi Arabia says it will retaliate firmly, Secretary of State Rubio said “they must stop now” and Trump said the US is looking at a response.
Washington’s answer to the pump is Russian diesel. On 9 October Trump said Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel to the US and global markets, with 500,000 tonnes more in November; the Treasury issued a temporary general licence and Putin confirmed Russia’s willingness to supply. Analysts say the volumes barely move the price, and Russia itself has banned diesel exports since July, extended to the end of October. On Sunday Trump announced a Russia–Ukraine “energy ceasefire”; Zelensky said it was news to him and that Russian strikes continued, and the Kremlin had not confirmed it, so GEF treats it as unconfirmed.
On the water: a strait that absorbs risk
UKMTO logged an outbound tanker struck on the port side by an “unknown projectile” in the Strait of Hormuz at about 23:20 UAE time on Saturday 10 October, with a fire on board and all crew safe; the ship was not named (Reuters; The National). Separately, the UAE National Guard said it rescued 22 Asian crew, all in stable condition, from an oil tanker that caught fire in Gulf waters; the vessel was not identified and the cause was not stated, and The National presents it as a separate incident. UKMTO also issued a Sunday advisory about a tanker and military forces in the Gulf of Oman, without details.
The US side of the water is the blockade. On 10 October a US fighter jet struck the stern of the Panama-flagged cargo ship Ocean Molica (also reported as Ocean Molika, and known as Arika Sun) with a precision munition, disabling its propulsion without harming the crew, after it left an Iranian port and ignored repeated warnings (CENTCOM, via Al Jazeera and The National). Since the blockade resumed on 14 July CENTCOM counts four commercial vessels disabled, 135 turned around and 10 Iran-linked tankers destroyed, and says Iran has exported no oil through the blockade line.
GEF is not publishing the IRGC Navy’s statement that a supertanker hit a naval mine and caught fire. It is relayed by Mehr, the Tehran Times and Al Jazeera as an IRGC claim, no maritime authority has confirmed it, and it joins the earlier unconfirmed IRIB mine claim and the IRGC LPG-carrier claim on GEF’s unverified list. Traffic is still a fraction of normal: Kpler put crude transits at 8.5 million b/d in the week to 7 October, about 40% below normal, while another Kpler reading had 10.1 million b/d as of 6 October; the measures differ and GEF treats both as floors. GEF’s own frames on 12 October show the Iranian coastal core at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm with CASPIA, ADARA, CENTURIES and ZONDA underway and no satellite-only contact in frame; Bab el-Mandeb shows about 10 satellite-only contacts in a wide frame (8 on 10 October, 17 on 9 October), frame-to-frame variation rather than a trend; Suez is dense in both directions with a canal convoy.
Saudi Arabia: the bypass under fire
The 10 October missile hit the terminals that handle domestic flights. The dead were four Saudis, two Bangladeshis and one each from the US, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Palestine and Sudan, according to the figures Saudi civil aviation released (CBS News; Al Jazeera); PBS reports an Indian citizen died of injuries on Sunday. FlightAware counted at least 291 Riyadh flights cancelled over 24 hours, and Air India, flydubai, Lufthansa Group and Pakistan International Airlines were among the carriers that suspended Saudi service. The Saudi-led coalition first reported an “unidentified projectile” and later called the attack a war crime; Saudi Arabia says it will retaliate “firmly”. The Houthis have claimed repeated attacks on Saudi airports and warned airlines to avoid them.
This matters for oil because Saudi crude now reaches the market through the East–West pipeline and Yanbu, which was attacked and shut for days last month, and because the Houthis control the approach to Bab el-Mandeb. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister told a Riyadh energy conference that “there is no way that somebody will break our back” and that the kingdom is developing additional pipelines beyond the East–West line. Lloyd’s List reports Red Sea tanker loadings rising as Aramco ramps its contingency route. GEF is not publishing the Houthis’ claims of strikes on the Rabigh refinery and on oil and gas facilities in the east: Saudi authorities have not confirmed them. Behind it sits a widening Yemen war: government forces launched an offensive on 4 October, and on 5 October Türkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia agreed to activate “deterrence measures” under their mutual defence pact (Al Jazeera).
Policy: Russian diesel and a disputed truce
The 9 October announcement is a reversal of US policy, and a bipartisan backlash followed (The Hill; NPR). Trump said Russia will supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately, 500,000 tonnes in November, then a further million and later three million tonnes; the Treasury said OFAC is issuing a temporary general licence for Russian diesel to the global market, and Putin said Russia is willing to supply. The scale is small: 300,000 tonnes is roughly 2.2 million barrels, under a tenth of one day of global diesel demand of about 30 million barrels (Al Jazeera). Neil Atkinson, a former IEA official, doubted Russia can deliver the volumes without hurting its own market; Russian diesel and gas exports fell to 190,000 b/d in the third quarter from 690,000 in the second, and European governments may refuse to buy it. Zelensky called it “a weak decision by strong partners.”
On Sunday Trump posted that Russia and Ukraine had agreed an energy ceasefire, effective immediately. Zelensky said it was news to him, reported a Russian attack on a power plant in Kharkiv the same evening, and said Ukraine would stop attacking Russian refineries if Moscow stops attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The Kremlin had not confirmed the truce at the time of the reports (CBS News; Al Jazeera). It is the diesel deal’s other half: Russian refineries are a diesel supply that Ukraine has been striking, which is why GEF keeps the Russian refining row at critical until a truce is confirmed. On 7 October the IEA agreed to speed up the G7’s 2 October release of 100 million barrels of diesel and crude and prioritise diesel; analysts note that completing the already announced releases is not necessarily a new release of that size.
Prices: crude, the pump and the barrel in storage
Crude finished the week higher on supply risk, then wobbled on the weekend’s headlines. Brent settled $104.72 on Friday 9 October (+2.4% on the week from $102.25) and WTI $91.85 (+0.8%), a spread of about $12.9; the week included a 4.1% jump to $104.28 on Thursday after reports of US strike planning and the Acers attack, then Trump’s pledge of no attack before the 3 November midterms. Hurricane Isaias shut in about 63% of US Gulf of Mexico crude output as of 8 October (more than 70% reported on 9 October; Reuters-cited). On Monday Brent swung between $102.33 and $105.63 in Asian trade and was about $103.46 in the afternoon, in thin liquidity with Tokyo closed and US bond markets shut. In US inventories the EIA’s week to 2 October showed commercial crude down 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million, distillate at 105.1 million (about 13% below the five-year average) and the SPR down 0.8 million to 283.0 million, the lowest since October 1982.
At the pump the picture eased slightly. UK diesel averaged 199.9p a litre on 9 October, just under the record 200.01p of 2 October, with petrol at 174.79p (RAC Fuel Watch); the RAC warns that duty rises by 3p on 1 January and a further 2p on 1 March unless the cut is extended. US diesel is $6.20 a gallon (AAA), from a $6.52 record in September and $6.34 on 4 October. GEF has no newer government read for France than 5 October (about 15% of stations short of a fuel; a crowd tracker showed 11.5% on 8 October).
Gas: the refill is borderline
GEF’s direct GIE AGSI+ read puts EU storage at 73.61% (831.86 TWh) for gas day 10 October, up from 73.29% on gas day 8 October, 70.87% on 26 September and 68.04% on 12 September. That is +0.20 points a day over the 14 days since 26 September and over 28 days; the last two gas days added +0.32 points, about +0.16 a day (the AGSI+ trend column shows −0.01 for the day itself because estimated German and Croatian datasets were revised down). Reaching the relaxed 80% target by 1 November needs about +0.29 points a day for the remaining 22 days: the 14-day average projects about 77.9% and the last two days about 77.1%, both short of 80% but inside the regulation’s flexibility band, so GEF rates the trajectory borderline. Germany is at 59.80% (estimated), the Netherlands at 62.03% (estimated), Slovakia at 55.88%, while France (86.96%), Italy (88.69%) and Poland (99.22%) are already above target.
Interconnections
Three links matter this week. First, Gulf to Red Sea to price: with Hormuz closed, Saudi crude reaches the market through Yanbu and the East–West line, so Houthi pressure on Saudi territory reaches the oil price through the pipeline and Bab el-Mandeb as well as through the strait; the Riyadh strikes moved Brent for a few hours and the diesel deal moved it back. Second, policy to pump: the G7 release, the IEA acceleration and the Russian licence all target diesel, not crude, but at roughly two million barrels a tranche they are small beside a market that loses most of the Gulf’s product exports; the relief that has reached the pump so far is in the US (diesel $6.20) and barely in the UK (199.9p). Third, security to aviation and gas: airlines suspending Saudi service shows the war’s cost reaching aviation without any change in jet-fuel supply, while Europe’s gas refill, still short of target, depends on Qatari LNG that cannot leave a closed Gulf.
Risk assessment
Strait of Hormuz: CRITICAL (worsening). Tanker fires on 10–11 October, a US jet disabling a blockade runner, at least seven named vessels struck since 1 October; Iran calls the US reply insufficient.
Bab el-Mandeb / Red Sea: CRITICAL (worsening). Houthi strikes now reach Riyadh; about 10 satellite-only contacts on GEF’s 12 October frame; Houthi embargo on Saudi shipping since July.
Saudi East–West bypass / Yanbu: ELEVATED (worsening). Pipeline contingency ramping under direct Houthi pressure; no confirmed new damage to oil facilities.
Global diesel and distillate: CRITICAL (improving on policy). G7 release, IEA acceleration and a Russian licence; US diesel $6.20 from a $6.52 record; US distillate still about 13% below its five-year average.
EU gas storage: ELEVATED (stable). 73.61% on gas day 10 October; both projected paths end 2–3 points short of 80%.
UK road fuel: CRITICAL (stable). Diesel 199.9p, 0.1p under the record; duty rises in January and March unless the cut is extended.
US SPR: ELEVATED (stable). 283.0 million barrels, the lowest since October 1982; DOE has opened a request for up to 40 million barrels more.
Russian refining capacity: CRITICAL (worsening). The energy ceasefire is unconfirmed and strikes continue.
Outlook
Base case (50%): no US strike before the 3 November midterms but the war keeps widening on the Saudi and shipping fronts; tanker attacks continue intermittently; Brent $95-108; US diesel holds near $6.00-6.20 as the G7 release and the Russian licence land; UK diesel stays near £2; EU gas finishes near 77-78%, short of 80% but inside the regulation’s flexibility band.
Upside risk to prices (30%): Saudi retaliation or a US response to the Riyadh strikes widens the war to Saudi and Red Sea infrastructure; Brent above $115 and diesel back to record.
Downside (20%): the Russian diesel flows and the energy ceasefire hold and an Iran–Oman route arrangement gains US backing after the midterms; Brent back toward $90, diesel toward $5.80. Any of these can switch on a single incident; GEF treats the paths as scenarios, not forecasts.
What to watch this week. Whether Saudi Arabia retaliates and what Washington decides; whether Moscow confirms the energy ceasefire and whether Russian diesel actually loads; Iran’s reply on its seven conditions; EIA inventories on Wednesday 14 October and EIA natural gas storage on Thursday 15 October; Brent’s hold above $100; Isaias restarts in the Gulf of Mexico; Israel’s election on 27 October, the 3 November US midterms and OPEC+ on 2 November; the UK Budget this month.
Sources: Al Jazeera (Riyadh airport, Ocean Molica, Hormuz attacks, energy ceasefire, Russian diesel, Yemen) · CBS News and PBS (Riyadh airport) · CENTCOM statements via Al Jazeera and The National (blockade tally) · UKMTO via Reuters and The National (10 Oct tanker) · Reuters via gCaptain and Khaleej Times (UAE National Guard rescue) · NPR, The Hill and Al Jazeera (Russian diesel licence) · Kpler via CNBC and Alhurra (Hormuz transits) · Reuters, The National and Trading Economics (Brent and WTI Friday 9 October settles) · Mitrade and CNBC (Monday 12 October Asian range) · EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (week to 2 October) · RAC Fuel Watch via Business Motoring (UK, 9 October) · AAA via Al Jazeera and EIA (US diesel) · prix-carburant.eu and prix-carburants.gouv.fr (France, last read 8 and 5 October) · GIE AGSI+ direct read (gas day 10 October) · GEF operator AIS audit (12 October). Published 12 October 2026. Brent and WTI figures are Friday 9 October settles unless stated; Monday figures are intraday. GEF risk ratings: Low / Moderate / Elevated / Critical.